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June 14, 2009

Aviation update miscellany: good, bad, constructive

Good. Pilot of a Cirrus SR-22 gets into trouble while flying over North Carolina but has an option. As the Mount Airy News reports, the pilot
CirrusCAPS.jpg
"...was at 6,000 feet when he declared an emergency, pulled the parachute his plane was equipped with, let go of the control panel and floated to the ground about one and a half miles into the woods off Still Water Lane.
"[He] was able to walk away from the site and place a call to 911 to inform them he was searching for emergency personnel and thought he had spotted some of them looking for him."
There are other recent developments involving Cirrus. (Positive: increasing production rate and recalling workers as worldwide sales pick up. Negative: found partly liable by a Minnesota jury for millions in damages after a crash in which a non-instrument rated pilot took off before dawn in bad weather and was killed, along with his passenger. The NTSB traced the probable cause of the accident to the "pilot's improper decision" to attempt the flight at all. More on these another time.)

Not so good
. Beautiful and elegant Beaver float plane crashes while attempting takeoff near Anchorage last week. (Via Eric Redman.) Not-so-bad aspects: No one apparently hurt, and remarkable minute-long YouTube video shot by unbelievably gutsy young cameraman.



Constructive: In response to an airline pilot's observation, here, that he typically has less up-to-date weather info available in the cockpit than pilots of modern small planes like the CIrrus do, former FAA and DOT official Andrew Steinberg writes to say:
"What strikes me on reading this discussion is that the slow pace of implementation of the NextGen air traffic system -- here and in Europe -- means that we don't prevent these preventable accidents (if it turns out that weather caused the demise of this [Air France 447] flight).   As you may remember, providing integrated weather displays to pilots, as well as controllers, is a key part of the Next Gen effort.  It's absurd that commercial pilots don't have these tools.   An article describing how the weather product fits into Next Gen is attached."
The article in question is here. As for the difference this might or might not have made to the Air France flight itself, which got in trouble over the open sea, another correspondent says:
"You know what we (meteorologists) call the oceanic regions?
"The big blue data void.
"It is hard to explain that to people who only look at CONUS." [Continental US, which has radar stations and other monitoring tools wherever you look.]
And another airline pilot writes in to say:
Your point on higher-tech and more real-time weather information being available for GA ["general aviation," small private plane] pilots versus airline pilots is well taken, but disregards an important advantage us 121 [airline] pilots have over aircraft with these XM weather uplinks....

I fly for a Northwest, now Delta, regional and we have access to the same ACARS delivered weather updates as the big boys. [ACARS is an automated data-collection service that shares info among planes in the air.]   Granted they are delivered in text and require manual plotting, but once done they are very accurate and enormously effective.  Base and/or composite reflectivity radar maps can be very deceiving to a pilot flying at FL370, since a lot of the weather depicted on those maps is very low.  ACARS coordinates and altitude of cell tops is often much better information, especially when considering whether to pick your way through a line at night or take a long detour. In addition the dispatchers themselves [airline employees who monitor the flights from the ground], being another human in the loop with even more information, can be invaluable in saving your bacon.  Between myself, my FO [first officer], and my dispatcher, I've got three eyes on the problem- which I'd take over any Nexrad/XM maps any day of the week.
 
Now I admit I'm spoiled flying as I do mostly over the continental US.  Transoceanic would be somewhat trickier given, as you say, the dearth of other traffic over the same route serving as guinea pigs.  That said, given what I know about the resources available to the Air France pilots, I am at a loss for why they found themselves on the midst of such a violent storm.

Also constructive: Carl Malamud, the inveterate crusader for making "public" information truly available to the public, has put online a variety of Federal videos related to aviation, here. This is part of his larger FedFlix effort to digitize films and videos produced by the government, and his even larger PublicResource.org campaign for opening up public data.

About the internet, the Atlantic, and Iran

In coverage of Iran over the past week and especially in these last few days, Andrew Sullivan has on his site illustrated the way the internet and related technologies have permanently changed journalism for the better. So have a number of other people at other sites, which have made themselves clearinghouses for information coming out of Iran in emails, blog posts, camera-phone and ad hoc video transmissions, and other forms including, yes, Twitter feeds. Collectively they've let the outside world know more about what is happening in a would-be sealed-off country, and given people inside that country a place to share and compare news as they could not possibly have done even a few years ago.

This fact is worth noting its own right, as a moment when we see that something truly new and positive has occurred. It's also worth observing in light of the many seemingly-permanent changes for the worse in journalism that have coincided with the internet era, whether or not they've been caused by it.

If I'm not mentioning anything about Iran at the moment, it's not because I think the news unimportant but rather because I have no contacts in the country and nothing to add to the discussion. As we follow developments there it's worth recognizing the different era in communications that has begun.

Coincidence? Paranoia? Virus?

Perhaps this is a statistically improbable, but sometimes-it-happens, no-reason-for-it anomaly.  But for the record:

Within a two-hour period this evening, as we pack to head to the airport tomorrow, (1) my wife's HP laptop, running WinXP, suddenly froze while she was using it, and since then has been entirely unresponsive on repeated attempts to boot up; and then (2) exactly the same thing happened to my ThinkPad T60, running (sigh) Win Vista, which I have used for the past year strictly as a storage and backup machine, for photos and similar high-volume stuff. Identical symptoms: failure to boot, black screen on startup, not even any hard disk sound. (Exasperation with Vista, and with the craplets Lenovo has added to my long-beloved ThinkPad line, made me switch my working platform to Mac + VMWare Fusion running WinXP early last year.)

Could be that both of them are flat worn out after three years here. And collapsing with the end hours away. Just like, ahem, us. Could be. But if it turns out that some new Windows- based virus is making its way around the world, H1N1-like, you can consider this Patient Zero. Would be strange if it affected two different releases of Windows on two different kinds of machines. But pure coincidence would be strange too. Both had AVG Avast! anti-virus up and running, and both using VPNs at time they were struck down.

FWIW, MacMini and MacBook Air still chugging along. (This is not a product point, simply describing the situation.) And THANK HEAVEN for SugarSync, which has full backups of all four of our computers nestled safely in the Cloud. Time to finish that last bottle of Yanjing beer, Beijing's answer to REEB, and get ready for tomorrow's flight.

June 9, 2009

An Airbus captain on getting into bad weather

Regarding one of the puzzles of the Air France 447 crash -- how a professional air crew ended up in the middle of a powerful thunderstorm -- an airline pilot writes:
As a point of reference I'm an A-320 Captain for NWA (soon to be Delta but happy to be getting a paycheck) with over 12,000 hours. While I agree that it's entirely possible and perhaps even likely that the Air France 447 crew did indeed proceed into an area that they shouldn't have I can say that if his radar isn't up to snuff or if they misinterpreted the presentation there are no other resources for them in that situation. At least over the continental US we have other aircraft reports and ground controllers who can make suggestions.

Most civilians (non aviators would I guess be a better term) are quite surprised to find that they have better access to up to date weather resources while sitting at home on the computer than I do. Once I'm airborne it's just the radar and who I can talk to on the radio (ATC, other aircraft, my dispatcher). While I'm told that modern business jets have satellite links to provide views and weather from various vantage points we who carry the most people do not. At main stations I can pull up numerous local and regional radar presentations which are very helpful. However when operating out of small stations this isn't always possible and once I get into my aircraft I'm blind except for the radar in the nose of the jet. It works well but it isn't foolproof, if I could see the same things airborne that I can while at a computer terminal we, my aircraft and passengers, would all benefit.

If any good can come of this accident I hope it will lead to a discussion and implementation of better weather resources for the airline industry. I'm proud of what we do and our overall safety record but this is one area where we could make great advances.
This is an important area where, strangely, small airplanes are actually better equipped for safety than most airliners. (Airliners are safer in just about every other way, from crew training to redundant backup systems, and despite the recent disasters are amazingly safe overall.) Starting in the early 2000s, handheld or tablet-sized displays capable of showing near-real-time Nexrad weather came onto the aviation market. They got the data via satellite services like XM/Sirius and could display info about storms, winds, and airport conditions that was only a few minutes old. Here's how a popular recent tablet model, the Garmin 696, looks. Its display screen is 7" diagonally, large enough to be very useful.
 
garmin_gpsmap_696.jpg

It can match the airplane's path to nearly-current radar information (as with the storms shown in central Florida, above). Everyone emphasizes that such displays are for "strategic" rather than "tactical" guidance -- giving you a general idea of places to avoid, rather than tempting you to try to slalom your way around the worst parts of a storm.

Other displays are mounted right on the panel and show how the plane's path matches the surrounding terrain and any other planes in the vicinity, along with the weather. This is a Cirrus cockpit, a fancier and more modern version of the kind of small plane I used to fly, with the weather (plus route, traffic, terrain, etc) displayed on the right-hand screen.

CirrusDashboard.jpg

I don't know how much good these displays would do over the open ocean -- where, after all, there are no ground-based radar stations to support Nexrad-style displays. But more info, and more recent info, is always better -- and the captain is right about this literal blind spot for most airliners, which should be corrected.

May 26, 2009

Herdict: now, in Arabic and Chinese!

Several months ago I mentioned a new web site from Harvard's Berkman Center called "Herdict," which allows people around the world to pool information about web sites being blocked.

For instance: late last year, I suddenly found that I couldn't reach the New York Times web site from my apartment in Beijing without using a VPN, and I heard from a friend in Shanghai that she was having trouble too. We didn't know if it was a problem on the Times's end, coincidental problems with our local connections, some other unknown issue -- or a conscious crackdown in China. As it emerged, Chinese officials had imposed a nationwide blackout on the NYT site. But it took a while to determine what was going on.

Herdict is meant to be a quick, crowdsourced way of reporting such developments -- and it has recently come out with Chinese and Arabic language versions of its site. It looks as if it's getting more traffic than the last time I checked a few months ago, but it could use more participants to produce finer-grained reports. Even now it's a quick way for people in, say, China to figure out that if they're having problems reaching YouTube, Blogger, China Digital Times, or Huffington Post, the fault lies not with them but with the Great Firewall. A useful tool.

May 23, 2009

Wrapup on papers, Craigslist, etc

Thanks for numerous responses to yesterday's message from my Google friend about how newspapers could, and presumably still might, take advantage of the shift to web-based advertising. Short version: the need to have the business (as opposed to purely journalistic) swagger of predecessors like William Randolph Hearst:
Hearst, were he living as a 'Rupert Murdoch' of today, would own Craigslist by now, would have an industrywide micropayment system, would have recruited legions of readers as hyper-local bloggers, and otherwise employed the tools and resources of our day to advance his cause just as he brought cartoons, drawings, and later photographs and color to his readers in his. 
This is a very thoroughly discussed issue, so only a few reactions -- then back to queued-up reactions on Chinese education!

First, from a reader in Australia, about what brought on the crash and a hoped-for solution:
My wife owns a boutique real estate agency in Sydney, Australia.  Every Thursday she'd have to submit the ads for her properties to the Sydney Morning Herald who had a monopoly on real estate advertising -- pre internet.  The likelihood of the desired ad appearing in print, in the desired location, on the desired day was about 60%.  (Imagine her customers looking through the ads for their house and not finding it!) The service was arrogant as well as unreliable and my wife wouldn't mind seeing the SMH go up in flames.  On the news side, the SMH is now about splashing electronic ads right in the middle of a story I might be reading: equally arrogant! This feels very much like a fat monopoly that will be overtaken by something better.

I used to be a print subscriber to the SMH; when their internet site caught up and I upgraded to a decent LCD monitor, it was easier to read online without having to consume and recycle a broadsheet containing 90% unconsumed waste.  I am a news junkie and I seriously worry about losing access to good journalism.  However, I am willing to pay a few cents per story per day and I am sure that somehow, someday, someone will find a way to aggregate my pennies with everyone else's to give good journalists a good living.
After the jump, another reader's suggestion of a potential opportunity. It begins:
It seems to me there is a huge advertising hole that newspapers could fill when they are ready to move past the blame game and start thinking more creatively.

Continue reading "Wrapup on papers, Craigslist, etc " »

More on Google, Craigslist, and who's killing newspapers

A few hours ago I mentioned that a friend from Google had tipped me to a new Pew study showing how big a hole Craigslist (and similar services) had blown in the classified-ad portion of newspaper revenue. I signed off by saying that the distinction -- Google's not killing the news business, Craigslist is! -- was "worth bearing in mind for precision in blame-casting."

My friend, who was up in the middle of the night in California, immediately wrote back to say that I'd misunderstood the point. With his stipulation that he is speaking for himself and not the company, and with my clarification that he is not one of the household names at Google who by definition are always speaking for the company, here is his note:
It's not at all about blame-casting. It's about proper diagnosis for treatment and recovery. If papers are critically ill from classified revenue woes (Craigslist, eBay, informal email, ...) but they falsely self-diagnose as being sick from over exposure in Google News, then they'll end up closing their borders by withdrawing from news aggregation sites at Google, Yahoo, MSN, and elsewhere. That won't hurt Internet companies [like Google] at all, but it will leave publishers with fewer new visitors, less online monetization opportunities, and still obliviously infected with disappearing classified revenues. They will get sick faster, and journalism as democracy's conscience will weaken. That will hurt every other company, every citizen, and nearly every country. 

The only blame belongs to the publishers. Craigslist, like all startups, was originally funded with pennies on the dollar compared with what media empires spend. It still is! Craigslist has not been bought/co-opted/copied by any of the major publishers even though doing so would have been a natural idea. Readers are moving online but publishers act as though they will go there only if dragged rather than racing to their only life saving destination. News is valuable, but you can no longer get it in printed form as it is hours old by the time you get your paper -- CNN and online news sites had it hours ago! Analysis is worth waiting for, but that is what magazines like The Atlantic are all about. Newspapers will never be about selling your old BBQ again. Ads at random, scattered between unrelated stories, are not part of the future of shopping. 

These are the issues for papers to agonize about; to wring their hands about; and maybe even to beg money to solve. Unfortunately, they've been copying the ideas and technologies invented and introduced by William Randolph Hearst for so long that they forgot his example of how to innovate for the modern day. Hearst, were he living as a 'Rupert Murdoch' of today, would own Craigslist by now, would have an industrywide micropayment system, would have recruited legions of readers as hyper-local bloggers, and otherwise employed the tools and resources of our day to advance his cause just as he brought cartoons, drawings, and later photographs and color to his readers in his.
Extra thought on my end: if this is what someone not in the writing biz can crank out at 4:40am his time, while up with eye problems and a splitting headache, maybe the publishing industry has even more to worry about from web-based competition than we thought!

Who exactly is killing the press

A friend who works at Google wanted to be sure I'd seen a new study from the Pew Internet Center* about what exactly is cutting the heart out of advertising revenues for the newspaper business. The headline on a CNET story about the study gets right to the point:

Craigslist1.jpg

The Pew study also contains this "story of an industry's decline in one chart" graphic, showing how classified ad revenue for papers has fallen from around $20 billion a year to under $10 billion during the era of Craigslist. (And, yes, the study argues that there's a causal connection here, not just a coincidence of timing.) A ten billion dollar revenue hole says a lot about why all papers -- well run, poorly run, concentrating on local issues, concentrating on national and world affairs, up market, down market -- are in trouble, all at the same time.

Craigslist2.jpg

To Google, it makes a difference whether the shorthand slogan in people's minds is "Craigslist is killing off newspapers" rather than "Google is doing them in." For the papers themselves, it's a fine distinction -- sort of like dinosaurs spending their last moments arguing whether it was a giant meteor strike or a bunch of volcanoes that was wiping them out. Still, a distinction worth bearing in mind for precision in blame-casting.
___
* Which is run by another friend, Lee Rainie; my wife has done Pew Internet studies too.




May 12, 2009

Design aspects of software: maps as "thinking tools"

I don't talk about it as often as, say, small-plane aviation or, recently, Chinese education, or my doomed quest in Asia for good beer. But for many many years I have been fascinated by the relationship between "pure" acts of thinking - logic, memory, argument, expression, the process of making connections and finding distinctions; all of which rely fundamentally on words - and the various tools, cues, shortcuts, and stimuli other than words that can play an important part in what we think of as thought.
 
I'm not talking about entirely separate realms of expression - like music, which obviously conveys meaning beyond words, or the emotional or imaginative power of artwork, photography, illustrations, and other visual representations. Rather I mean systems specifically designed to help the plain old reasoning parts of the brain do their job better, by shoring up common weak spots or by giving more or better material for the "real" brain to work on. For an Atlantic article on this topic from 2007, go here. Things have changed since then, mainly for the better, in ways I'll go into in coming days.

Today's design theme: the potential of argument maps. These are something like sentence diagrams, without the drudge-work overtone. I was introduced to them through two programs from the Austhink company of Melbourne, Australia: bCisive, whose name is I think a pun on "decisive" and is a tool for decision-making, and Rationale, which is supposed to help students improve the logic of their presentations. Tim van Gelder, who teaches philosophy at the U of Melbourne and founded Austhink, weighed in here yesterday on the Chinese education, defending the proposition that critical thinking can be taught.

Here's one illustration of an argument map, a small portion of a complex map prepared by Austhink director Paul Monk (an author and former intelligence officer) to weigh arguments about who "really" killed JFK. Different kinds of maps, and reading about them, after the jump. (His argument map on the proposition "The war on Iraq was illegal" is here.)
Bcisive1.jpg

Continue reading "Design aspects of software: maps as "thinking tools"" »

May 11, 2009

If you're looking for something new to worry about...[IMPROVED!!]

... how about the prospect that the GPS system will be the next part of America's neglected infrastructure to be in trouble, with ripple effects on modern commercial life?

It is impossible to overstate the importance of GPS to the worldwide modern economy. Trivial recent example: the other night in Beijing, my wife and I were lost getting to an address. Didn't see street signs around, although streets in big Chinese cities are usually very well marked. We pulled up the Google Map function on my Blackberry, and it showed us (via the "my location" function) that the street we were looking for was the one we just passed rather than the one still ahead. [This cut is an important improvement to the post! On the reasons for this improvement, see below*] Multiply this a million-fold each day in operations of the world's navigation and transportation functions, and you see how economic life is being built on GPS almost in the way it has been built on electricity over the last hundred years. The world's airlines, to choose one obvious case, would be in huge trouble without reliable GPS.

And so it is with heavy heart that we learn about a new Government Accountability Office study (here in PDF), via Michael Cooney's story in NetworkWorld, saying that the U.S. Air Force, which runs the GPS satellites, has not managed to get new "IIF"-model satellites ready in time to replace the ones that are wearing out.

GPS.jpg

For years, other countries have said they needed their own alternative to the GPS system, precisely because it was run by the U.S. military and, in times of crisis, could be used as a strategic tool. Simplest version of the fear: that in an emergency the US could block or encode signals so that only its own receivers could interpret them, meaning the American military would know where it was going and no one else would. You can get the idea from the illustration below, included in the GAO report, showing sample "aviation" and "ground navigation" uses for GPS.

GPSSystem.jpg
There's a long history on this score, mainly involving the European Galileo project, plus Russian and Chinese efforts; plus the Pentagon's gradual willingness to make high-precision signals available to the world generally, rather than deliberately fuzzing the open-use civilian version. All for another time; I invite you to look it up for yourself. 

But the nightmare scenario no one thought to worry about was that the US-run system would start to crumble and wear out. Arrrgghh!
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* IMPROVEMENT!!!:  Let me quickly shift from Arrrggghh to OOOOOPSSS!  Let's entirely forget that struck-out part above, in light of this item from TelecomAsia.net that a technically sophisticated friend just sent me.
GPSOhNo.jpg

Ummm, I don't know what I could have been thinking. Of course my Blackberry couldn't do anything like that....

May 8, 2009

Sugar Sync

I've mentioned several times before (like here and here) that SugarSync has become one of the programs I would hate to do without. Others, for reasons explained in those previous posts: VMWare Fusion and Google's Calendar Sync tools for Outlook and Blackberry.

SugarSync has just come out with a free edition (with limited storage), and an easier-to-use graphic interface, with example below:

SSync.jpg

The "what it's for" description of the program is: it lets you work on files on a variety of computers and never have to worry about copying them from one to another when you travel or work someplace else. Like your own personal "cloud" computing. Easily crosses the Mac/PC membrane. In the process, keeps an online up-to-date backup of your files.  Only thing it really is stumped by: Outlook .PST files.

Similarly on the tech theme: I've been using the latest Firefox beta, 3.5b4, in both Mac and PC versions over the last week, without a single hang or crash. If you're having instability problems (as I did) with the latest release version, 3.0.10, consider the beta. It is here.

May 6, 2009

New meta-theme: design!

The chart below, from David Wolf's Silicon Hutong site, is not meant to be taken in 100% straight-faced earnest -- I think. It's a flow chart for deciding whether to buy a book as a new hard cover, a used hard cover, or a Kindle-style ebook, including the complication that Wolf is based Beijing and can find only so much in the local shops. (I say: choose whatever form you want, but just buy the damned book!!!)

DavidWolfBookFlowChart.jpg
It's connected to a more earnest but quite interesting discussion by Wolf of the role of physical books in a personal library, even when ebooks are available. And I'll use it as an intro to the next running meta-theme here: various aspects of design.

I realize that many of the leads and items I am interested in discussing and thinking about -- once the art course is over and the flu has passed and I'm caught up with, ahem, my "real" work -- really concern design in several aspects.

  •  Design of cities, including the ones springing up all over China, as hinted at in this introductory Beijing-vs-Shanghai post several weeks back.
  • Design of "tools for thinking," which generally includes software and which I find particularly provocative and rich in the emerging (for me) intersection of straight text and graphics. I don't mean photo illustrations; I mean "mapping" and "visualization" programs of several sorts that I, as a pure-text guy from way back, find increasingly useful.
  • Design of hardware for thinking and learning, not excluding the familiar Kindle and the even more familiar PC and Mac.
  • Design of the working environment, the reduce the threat posed by the Number One Killer of Modern-day Thought, non-stop distraction
More on all of that later. This is fair warning. Now, real work again for a while.

May 4, 2009

More on the F-22, the F-35, and big expensive airplanes

The Atlantic has been your one-stop site for all aspects of the "F-22 question" -- the decision on whether to buy more copies of the Air Force's latest fighter plane. Mark Bowden's article in the magazine here; various perspective from me here, here, and here;  SecDef Robert Gates's rationale in calling off purchases discussed here and here.

Apart from the F-22, the other fighter in gestation over the past decade has been the "Joint Strike Fighter," known as the F-35, shown here in vertical take-off mode for use by the Marine Corps. (Photo via Discovery channel). It is also designed to take off and land "normally," from a runway, for the Air Force version, and a from an aircraft carrier deck for the Navy's.

JSF.jpg

The case for this airplane (discussed at length in this article back in 2002) was that it would avoid the cost and complexity problems that plagued the F-22. The case against it, as presented in a recent document by the legendary military analyst and designer Pierre Sprey and Winslow Wheeler of America's Defense Meltdown, is that it too has turned into an example of those very same disorders. Their article about the two airplanes, "What 'Sweeping Reforms' in DOD?", takes a skeptical view of Sec. Gates's current procurement reforms and is available here. Worth reading not just about these aircraft but for the overall approach to defense spending.

May 1, 2009

Browser update

Reports keep trickling in of people having crashes with the latest official release of Firefox, as first mentioned here. I have no way of knowing whether this is signal or noise -- an actual trend, or merely random blips among FF's millions of users.

I do know that the latest Firefox beta, 3.5b4, has been running smoothly around the clock, at least for me. Available here. And as previously indicated, I will indeed try Opera when I get some "spare" time.

FWIW, this sociology of browsers from Marty Manley:
Am testing a site these days, so I keep 3 browsers open: IE, FF 3.0.1 and Chrome. In two days, I have had four hard FF crashes -- unheard of. FF also lost track of all saved passwords, although it recovered  (maybe thanks to Xmarks).

BTW, Chrome seems ever stronger. If this were college, IE would be the entitled rich kid who acts smart, but isn't, Firefox the impressive high achiever who is actually a bit lazy and dilettantish, and Chrome the kid who works nights to pay bills, is rock solid, and is steadily getting stronger and stronger.

Or, if you prefer, George Bush, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama. As to Opera -- the garden variety A student of sound quality but without a compelling or differentiating architecture -- I think she makes a fine Secretary of State.

April 30, 2009

More on Firefox 3.0.10

After mentioning recently my own frequent-crash experience with the latest release of Firefox, these results:

- Reports from a few readers who'd had similar problems, and a larger number who hadn't;

- Recommendations from several readers, most enthusiastically Parker Donham, to instead give the Opera browser a try, which no doubt in tinkering spirit I'll eventually do;

- Recommendations from friends at Mozilla to try out the beta 4 release of Firefox 3.5, which has a variety of new privacy features -- plus requests for debugging details of my crashes with 3.0.10.

The living nightmare that was my experience with Windows Vista, starting with a Vista beta back in 2006, has made me wary of trying any beta version of anything ever again. (Not that the official release version was that big an improvement. For later, after I finish some pressing "real" work: a summing up of the way that Vista + Lenovo's tweaks to the trusty ThinkPad changed 20 years of buying loyalty and put me on the Mac path.) But I did download that FF 3.5 beta and have been using it with no problems lo these past two days.  FWIW.

April 28, 2009

Stability problems with Firefox 3.0.10?

The latest release of Firefox offered itself for installation today, with this announcement of its new features:

FFOX.jpg

Since then, the Mac version of Firefox has crashed constantly for me, on a MacMini under OS X 10.5.6 (including after a reboot). A local problem here in the Beijing HQ? Maybe a "major stability issue" not entirely nailed down in this latest release? I don't know yet. It's the first serious stability problem I've had in years of using Firefox. Not looking for reports from far and wide about where it's working and not. Just offering this report, as part of the crowdsourcing process, of a possible glitch. And if you haven't installed 3.0.10 yet, what's the rush?

April 14, 2009

The new Nigeria

What is it with the Russians?  Below, from a recent trip through the spam filter on my Atlantic email account. My Gmail spam filter doesn't show any of this -- I imagine because they have already worked out more sophisticated multi-language anti-spam tools. (Click on the image for more detailed view. And here for earlier Russian spam.):

RussoSpam.jpg

Now, if only they'd be considerate enough to send the spam in Chinese, so I could read the subject lines. No larger point here, but it is odd.

April 11, 2009

"It could have been the Kindle..."

My wife's consoling comment the other day -- that I had lost all my credit cards and cash, but at least I still had my own Electronic Reading Device -- brings up two relevant updates. One is about the evolution of the device; the other, about the ergonomics of reading.

First, Kindle 1 versus Kindle 2. Below, a compare and contrast from the Kindle labs here at the Beijing HQ. On the right, in brown, the original, time-tested Kindle Classic, with an add-on leather cover from M-Edge. On the left, in black, the updated Kindle 2, in the standard-issue Amazon-logo'd leatherlike cover (though it doesn't come standard with the Kindle -- you have to buy it separately. I now have an even fancier add-on cover):



Same two items, in opened-and-readable view. Each shows the screen saver that comes on if you haven't been turning pages for a few minutes. Old on the bottom, new at the top, ever-handy Chinese-English dictionary in the upper left just for a color highlight:


What's the difference between old and new? Screen slightly brighter on new version, but old is plenty clear. Battery life also somewhat better, but plenty long in original version -- days and days. New has easier navigation; NextPage/PreviousPage keys better designed to avoid accidental pressing of keys; and a much svelter look and feel (below):



All in all the new Kindle seemed the ideal machine for ... my wife!, who initially scoffed but now is a devotee. Plus, sticking with the doughty Kindle Classic shores up my credentials as an outstanding husband. It's probably worth noting that the K1/K2 contrast is of purely antiquarian interest, since the original models are no longer sold.

Next, future of books. My friend Jacob Weisberg, of Slate, has rashly ignored my advice on how to avoid becoming a Kindle bore and published his paean to the device several weeks ago, here. I'll solidify my non-bore status by mildly dissenting from his view. Jacob tells us that:
The Kindle 2 signals that after a happy, 550-year union, reading and printing are getting separated. It tells us that printed books, the most important artifacts of human civilization, are going to join newspapers and magazines on the road to obsolescence.
I say: sort of.

Continue reading ""It could have been the Kindle..."" »

April 8, 2009

This too is puerile but pretty funny

On my tombstone it will say, "He dealt with Clippy." Ten years ago, during an (enjoyable!) six-month stint at Microsoft, I was supposed to be providing a "writer's perspective" on editing features being added to what became Word XP. These mainly involved the track-changes functions, plus embryonic hopes for what is now OneNote. In my spare time, I was inveighing against the maddening feature generally called Clippy -- or TFC* to insiders -- that would pop up and say "You seem to be writing a letter!" whenever you typed out "Dear Mr. ..."

Soon Clippy was turned Off by default (rather than On), and then it was completely deep-sixed.  We all leave a mark on the world.

I am therefore particular delighted to see the homage to the original Clippy provided by this mildly subversive new program. You install it on a "friend's" computer -- and until he or she figures out how to turn it off, it pops up every 60 seconds with Clippy-worthy tips like these:

Clippy3.jpg


Clipp2.jpg

Download site here; info, including how to turn it off, here. I loaded this onto a backup computer and was able (I think!) to stop and completely remove it when the hilarity was done. But why take a chance? Put it on someone else's computer, not your own.  Thanks to R. Manzetti.
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* TFC = The F... Clown

April 3, 2009

I admit that this creeps me out a little (Lou Pai + search engine dept)

In several previous items (here and here, with other links), I mentioned a half-mocking quest for the current whereabouts of Lou Pai, the Enron official who got out of the company just before the deluge with more money than anyone else. Various newspaper stories and official documents periodically appear to mark his on-the-record activities: the $31.5 million fee and settlement with the SEC, his purchase and eventual sale of a Colorado mountain, etc.

Recently a reader sent me links to a set of candid, casual pictures of a family that appears to be Pai's. He, his wife, and a daughter (or so it appears) are happily engaged in recreational and charitable activities, in depictions from a community web site. Here, as evidence, is a thumbnail of Pai himself which I have cropped from a larger picture with his wife, their child, and a pet.

LouPaiSnap.jpgI'm not including any more clues or info about where this was found, and I don't think it was the reader's intention that I should. The creepy part is not about Pai himself -- this all started with my idle curiosity about why he was so much less well known than Skilling, Fastow, et al when he'd done so much better out of Enron. Instead it is the reminder of how many intimate views are available, through the simplest search tools, even about people who've gone to considerable lengths to shield themselves from public view. If you come across the family details I'm talking about, you'll see what I mean. And reflect about the traces we're all leaving behind.

Good tech news: SugarSync for BlackBerry

The Sharpcast company of San Mateo, Ca., maker of the invaluable SugarSync backup-and-sync utility, has recently announced that its system will work on BlackBerrys, in addition to today's coverage of Macs, PCs, and some mobile devices. Here's why I think this is great news.

I mentioned recently that I have come to rely completely on Google's calendar sync tools because of their "never have to worry about it" effect. When I want to add, delete, or change an appointment, I never have to worry about whether I'm entering the info into my Outlook calendar,  Google's online calendar, or my BlackBerry. The sync tools make sure that info entered any one place shows up in the other two -- so far, unerringly.

As I thought about it, I realized that there are three other utilities I esteem because of the same "never have to worry about it" quality:

- The PC indexer X1. I never have to worry about where I've stored a file or piece of email, because I know that X1 will be able to find it. (As mentioned before, the program sometimes hangs but has never lost data.)

- VMWare's Fusion program. I never have to worry about whether a program I like is for Macs or PCs, because I know that with Fusion I can run either kind (plus Linux etc) on an Intel-based Mac. Sometimes Windows programs can slow down when run with Fusion on the underpowered (though elegant!) MacBook Air. But overall Fusion works so well that I simply never have to think about the Mac/Windows difference.

- And SugarSync (earlier mentions here and here). I never have to worry about copying files from desktop to laptop before I take a trip or or wonder where I've stashed the latest version of something I'm working on. I know that when I change a file on one computer, SugarSync will copy it to the others. There are a few files that can stump it (namely Outlook .PSTs, a subject for another day), and some friends have reported glitches with certain other file types. But I have come to rely on it entirely -- and on the fact that it's simultaneously backing up all my files, in the "cloud". And now, with the BlackBerry? According to the announcement:
The BlackBerry application is very advanced and it brings capabilities not present before in the SugarSync offering... allowing users to access and share remotely all the SugarSync data available in all of their computers. ...From the road you can easily review documents, send them to colleagues, and collaborate with them and see in real time the changes they may have made to files present in a given shared folder.
But that is not all. The BlackBerry client allows users to open and EDIT files ON the Blackberry while traveling and makes those updates quickly available for others.
 Emphasis in the original -- and the implication, of course, is that from your BlackBerry you could dig out the file you'd left at home, change part of it, and pass it on by email to someone else -- all with your poor little thumbs. Here's the company's illustration of what the file directory of your home computer looks like when accessed from the road 
m_sugarsync-bb2.1.jpg

As I've tried this just now, mine looks the same. I see a listing for the files on my MacMini desktop in Beijing, and on my two laptops, a ThinkPad and a MB Air. In general I try to avoid doing anything more on a BlackBerry than seeing if something urgent has arrived -- I feel like a chimp clicking out messages with my thumbs, which get sore anyway. But I can imagine how this could be handy, and it's an occasion for another mention of how valuable I've found SugarSync as a whole.

March 30, 2009

Xobni's side of the story

In response to this report of problems that my colleague Corby Kummer encountered when installing the Outlook-indexing program Xobni, the CEO of Xobni, Jeff Bonforte, sent me a note. I post it here with his permission.
Thank you for your posts about Xobni. We were disappointed to read about Corby Kummer's bad experience with our product. We take performance and stability of our software very seriously and have spent over 5 months working out bugs and optimizing speed prior to releasing the product from beta. After 2M+ downloads, we are unaware of any user that has experienced Corby's issue.

We have reached out to Corby directly, but in the meantime we have begun researching the issue. At this point we don't believe that Xobni itself caused his issue. Instead, we believe when he installed Xobni (any software in this case), it triggered a rare Windows bug or registry corruption. Of course, we don't rule out the issue is with Xobni, but it seems likely it is a Windows bug similar to this Window's RSL (registry size limit) issue (http://support.microsoft.com/kb/189119).

Regardless, it is a bad issue, and even if Xobni is uninstalled, we want to make sure it is fully resolved. We will coordinate with Microsoft support. Though Corby had a bad experience, I hope you will give the new Xobni a try, like thousands of new users each day.

You are welcome to reach out to us, even on Twitter (@Xobni), to tell us about your experiences. We have had incredibly positive feedback so far like that from your colleague Barry Simon. If any of your readers encounter a dramatic issue, please feel free to have them contact Xobni support or me directly.

Thanks again,
Jeff Bonforte
jeff at xobni dot com
CEO, Xobni
PS: You can also tell Barry we are working on some more advanced search options that should please him.
While waiting for Corby and the Xobni people to get to the bottom of this issue, I have to say that the prompt, helpful, and, in the circumstances, very good natured response by a CEO is impressive. (And is the opposite of the blustering defensiveness I often marvel at in China.) When I'm able to download the program, I'll know more about how it works for me.

More on Chinese cyber-spying

Following this report earlier today.

 Last summer, Mr. Sane Thinking About All Things Security Related, Bruce Schneier, offered this perspective on electronic attacks originating in China. His view rings completely true to what I have seen of Chinese tech culture. Highlights:
These hacker groups seem not to be working for the Chinese government. They don't seem to be coordinated by the Chinese military. They're basically young, male, patriotic Chinese citizens, trying to demonstrate that they're just as good as everyone else. As well as the American networks the media likes to talk about, their targets also include pro-Tibet, pro-Taiwan, Falun Gong and pro-Uyghur sites.

The hackers are in this for two reasons: fame and glory, and an attempt to make a living. The fame and glory comes from their nationalistic goals. Some of these hackers are heroes in China....And the money comes from several sources. The groups sell owned computers, malware services, and data they steal on the black market. They sell hacker tools and videos to others wanting to play. They even sell T-shirts, hats and other merchandise on their Web sites.
Schneier points out that the probably non-governmental origin of this threat should moderate fear of a concentrated Chinese military plot  -- but doesn't make the objective situation any better:
If anything, the fact that these groups aren't being run by the Chinese government makes the problem worse. Without central political coordination, they're likely to take more risks, do more stupid things and generally ignore the political fallout of their actions.
Schneier also has an update on the current controversy at his main site. For the strongest albeit circumstantial argument that the government or military might have been involved, see this post on Ars Technica. Its main point is that the list of sites known to have been attacked seems more selective and strategically chosen than one would suspect from a bunch of hackers. That's possible. But for now, the evidence still seems to me to support the hacker hypothesis.  (Also: this site from the US Air Force's Air University has a number of useful links about US and foreign approaches to electronic info-warfare.)
 

What should we make of this Chinese cyber-spy story?

Yesterday's story in the New York Times about "GhostNet," the Chinese-based computer spying network that has apparently penetrated some 1,295 computers in more than 100 countries around the world, obviously raises this big question: Was the Chinese government behind it, or not? Three of the four servers that hosted GhostNet were apparently inside China (the fourth was in California), and many of the targets were involved one way or another in Free-Tibet activities or other causes opposed by the Chinese government. Wouldn't it have to have been the ChiComs?

Maybe, maybe not. I've now read (thanks to a stop-by at free WiFi site masquerading as a McDonald's) the 53-page report from the University of Toronto team that used clever reverse-engineering tools to penetrate "GhostNet" and monitor it from within. The report, in the Scribd format that deserves discussion itself some other time, is available here.

The U Toronto researchers are, in my view, properly agnostic about who is ultimately responsible for this malware operation. On the one hand, they point out that "China is actively developing an operational capacity in cyberspace.... Chinese cyber warfare doctrine is well developed, and significant resources have been invested by the People's Liberation Army and security services in developing defensive and offensive capabilities." But on the other hand,
"Attributing all Chinese malware to deliberate or targeted intelligence gathering operations by the Chinese state is wrong and misleading... The most significant actors in cyberspace are not states.... In China, the authorities most likely perceive individual attackers [ie, teenagers in internet cafes] as convenient instruments of national power."
For anyone technically inclined, the report is full of fascinating crime-procedural type details about the way the investigation unfolded and what the GhostNet system revealed once the moles from Toronto had made their way inside. 

My guess is that the "convenient instruments" hypothesis will eventually prove to be true (versus the "centrally controlled plot" scenario), if the "truth" of the case is ever fully determined. For reasons the Toronto report lays out, the episode looks more like the effort of groups of clever young hackers than a concentrated project of the People Liberation Army cyberwar division. But no one knows for certain, and further information about the case is definitely worth following. As are this new report on "The Snooping Dragon" by computer scientists at the Cambridge University in England and the University of Illinois, and this very good Wired blog item.   One more thing to worry about be interested in.

March 29, 2009

Xobni: the magazine titans speak!

Yesterday I mentioned that Xobni, an Outlook add-on that I'd tried and abandoned last year, was out in a new and reportedly much much faster version. Quickly I heard from two magazine-world big shots about their varying experiences with the program.

Below, a reaction from Barry Simon, who has reviewed software for years in PC Magazine and is author of several volumes in the "Mother of all Windows Books" series. Then, and continued after the jump, a highly cautionary tale from my Atlantic colleague Corby Kummer, known to the world as director of the Atlantic's new Food Channel (and perennial favorite for the James Beard Award) and to me as my editor and fellow software enthusiast. Read; judge for yourself; see my "what it all means" comments at the end.

Barry Simon:
For whatever it is worth, I only started using Xobni in November, 2008. I have 1.6 GB main .pst and a total of 5 GBs of pst in my main outlook directory (going back to 2002). Xobni has indexed them all even the ones not loaded into Outlook and I've had no performance issues with it. It is a tool I rely on heavily although its limitations drive me crazy.

The biggest limitation is the inability to do any kind of real Boolean search. You can search for single words or phrases across all mail and can search mail to/from one person for subjects but I've yet to find a way to search for given words in the body of all messages to/from person x.
Corby Kummer:
I downloaded and installed [Xobni], and waited for it to index everything, during which it slowed everything to molasses. I assumed it was the initial indexing that was making everything so slow...

Continue reading "Xobni: the magazine titans speak!" »

March 23, 2009

It's not just the Chinese

Recently I mentioned the near-universal modern Chinese belief that a mobile phone, when ringing, should take precedence over anything else that might be going on -- in particular, the person you are talking or dining with at that moment. From a reader, the cross-cultural angle:
The mobile phone versus face-to-face thing is the norm in India as well, and again, is not considered rude or even unusual by the locals. I attended a family wedding in New Delhi a couple of years ago, and the priest took several calls during the ceremony. Taking our cue from the bride's parents, everybody paused while he took each call, and then resumed as if [nothing had happened]. Apparently another priest had failed to show up at a wedding across town, and that family were ringing round all the possibles...
This is one of the few India-China similarities I have come across.

March 22, 2009

Things everyone in China knows, but...

... that few people outside have really taken in. Here I'm talking strictly about the communications-and-internet front. They were neatly summarized by Andrew Lih, in a recent SXSW panel that was in turn reported on CNReviews.com. His principles, with my marginalia [in brackets like this] below:

  •  No one uses voicemail. When some one calls you on your mobile phone, you generally pick it up. Mobile calls take precedence over face-to-face conversation, which is generally interrupted by a call. [Too many times to count, I have seen people take mobile-phone calls while giving a speech or presiding at a meeting. It's the norm, not something rude.]

  • China uses SMS more intensively. SMS may have become entrenched because of the low cost of sending text messages. The first thing Chinese do in the morning is check their IM first, not their email. [Though, this assumes they turned off the phone at night!]

  • Instant messaging, combined with SMS, is a hugely popular means of communication. China's leading IM platform, QQ (Company: Tencent (HK:0700)), has 350 mm users-over 50 times the audience of Twitter! [Two days ago on the Beijing subway, I counted 25 people in the same car as me all typing out or reading text messages and only two actually talking on the phone. Also, you're never out of mobile-phone coverage in China -- on subways, in elevators, wherever. Discussion of reasons some other time.]

  • Only 56% of all Chinese internet users have email addresses. [If you want to reach a busy American, you send email to the Blackberry. That gets you nowhere here.]

  • Ownership of PCs is much lower, especially in 2nd and 3rd tier cities, where heavy PC usage is at Internet cafes.

  • Unlike the West, where e-commerce was Web 1.0 and social media is Web 2.0, China's internet usage started as a social phenomenon first and is just now moving to more utilitarian purposes.

Lih is a friend in Beijing; was a major guide/informant for the Atlantic piece I wrote about the Great Firewall; and is author of a much-anticipated book The Wikipedia Revolution, which I have ordered and look forward to reading.

March 20, 2009

On Google sync tools

I keep meaning to write a full wrap-up on this topic, but that will never happen. So this summary judgment for now:

Google's Calendar sync utilities are, in my experience, amazingly robust and dependable. There are three different places in which I enter or change calendar info, and on which I want to view it: In Outlook's calendar; online with the Google calendar; and on my Blackberry. Two Google sync apps -- this one for Outlook <-> Google Calendar, and this one for Blackberry <-> Google Calendar -- have been, for me, bulletproof. I enter, change, or delete appointments in any of the three locations, and the results show up correctly on the other two. This is a huge plus. Apparently there's a similar iPhone sync app, but I don't know how well it works.

Offline Gmail is, in my experience, far from bulletproof but still useful in a "better than nothing" way. Without this utility, if you weren't online you couldn't do anything whatsoever with the messages and info in your Gmail account. Now, if things go right, you can search and read messages while offline, like on an airplane -- and can write replies or new messages that will be sent the next time you log on. In its early version, offline Gmail seems to get confused easily about whether it's off- or on-line and to have other small glitches. For now I've disabled it except when I know I have a long airplane ride ahead. But that it works at all is something.

Bonus Gmail point: A new "panic-button" app, just released, which allows you to un-send a message within five seconds, if you have an instant case of sender's-remorse. I can think of times when this would have been useful.

March 12, 2009

Technology as friend of tradition! (Chinese language dept.)

People inside China already know about this, and people outside may not care. But because there are points of general intellectual interest involved, a word about discussions within China about possibly changing its system for writing Chinese characters.

No, not getting rid of them altogether and instead using an alphabet -- a pipedream for reformers from time to time, and something with too many complex implications to get into right now.

Rather, undoing one of the big "reforms" rammed through under Chairman Mao: the replacement of many hundreds of characters with streamlined, "simplified" forms. Joel Martinsen of Danwei.org has an excellent primer on the whole subject here. (Other Wikipedia history here and here.) To illustrate what the difference looks like, here is the simple word "telephone" (dianhua in Mandarin) as written first in "traditional" and then in "simplified" forms. In each case it is written with the character for "electricity" followed by the one for "talk," so a telephone is "electric talk," as a computer is "electric brain" (diannao).

Here is "telephone" as written in traditional characters -- which are still used in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macau, and some other parts of the Chinese-speaking world outside of the mainland:
TelephoneOld.jpg

And here is the same word, with the "same" characters, in the simplified form used on the mainlaind:
TelephoneNew.jpg

The argument for simplified writing is analogous to various crusades to "rationalize" English spelling -- so u can rite in a kwik and e-z way The simplified versions are obviously simpler to write, with fewer strokes. But there are many objections, enumerated at astonishing length here, which boil down to:

1) The new characters violate tradition. Written English had been in very great flux until the standardization of printing about two centuries ago. (We can barely read Chaucer, and students require glosses for Shakespeare.) Written, traditional Chinese characters had been the great element of continuity for a much longer time -- at least for the people who could read them. Now they've been upturned -- although partisans of simplified characters claim that they're based on a time-honored hand-written form.

2) The new characters are graceless and ugly.  The characters below mean the same thing, guangchang, or "Square," as in People's Square, Tomorrow Square, or Tiananmen Square -- a name I dare use because it's on the street maps in Beijng. Those on left are traditional. On the right, streamlined and simplified. It's like the difference between "through" and "thru."  
SquareOld.jpg
(old to the left, new to the right)    SquareNew.jpg


3) The new characters are easier to write but harder to understand. A nonobvious point but an important one. Consider the English word pronounced "for." When spoken, it could be ambiguous. When written, it's immediately obvious whether we mean for, four, or fore.  Same with "right" -- potentially confusing when heard, immediately obvious when read as right, write, wright, or rite. And -- strangely -- characters have a counterpart to this problem, made worse by simplification. (This is not even getting into the related but different topic of words pronounced the same and distinguishable mainly by their characters-- as if the for/four/fore problem came up all the time.)

The two characters below, which mean "east" on the left and "happy" or "enjoyment" on the right, are very easy to tell apart in traditional form (ignore the little dots on the side; part of my home-made effort to illustrate the characters.) :
EastOld.jpgLeOld.jpg

Here is how much more similar the two of them look when simplified -- again "east" on the left and "happy" on the right:
eastnew.jpg LeNew.jpg

The "extra information" in the traditional characters is what made them more cumbersome to write, but also easier to tell apart. (Again, think right/write/rite/wright: suppose they were all spelled rite!) Now, here is the interesting part:

Increasingly, Chinese people don't actually have to write (rite? right?) out these characters by hand. More and more, they key them in with mobile phones or at computers. And when they do that, it's just as easy to "write" a traditional-style, complex, information-dense character as  a streamlined new one. (Reason: you key in clues about the character, either its pronunciation or its root form, and then click to choose the one you want.) So -- according to current arguments -- the technology of computers and mobile phones could actually revive an important, quasi-antique style of writing.

Much more on the debate here and here. In practical terms, my bet is that nothing will change. But if you're interested in language or the relationship between technology and styles of thought, it has to be interesting. Or so I contend.

March 11, 2009

Kids and Kindle

My wife is only days away from receiving her exciting new new-to-her Kindle, which is to say that I expect soon to get my hands on a Kindle 2. Meanwhile this note from a good friend about the machine's effect in his household:
An (unreported?) Kindle phenomenon: 11-year old girl, drove parents crazy by not reading books because totally addicted to electronics, has now transferred total addiction to Kindle 2 - and now does nothing, ever, but read books, one after another. In bed, in the car, while eating - while crossing streets!

[My wife] says, "Let's buy Amazon stock. In six months, the world will have discovered this particular phenomenon." (She is the one who had the sudden insight that this might work for [our daughter].)
Ah, this explains the trajectory of my financial life. On hearing the story, my first instinct was not, "Hey, let's act on the potential market-moving nature of this news" but rather "Hey, maybe this is a new answer to all those old laments about American kids refusing to read." Either way, good news for Amazon, good news for the family in question -- and not even bad news for those who have most reason to fear the coming of Kindle, book-store owners, since it sounds as if this new enthusiast was not spending that much time in book stores anyway.

February 23, 2009

F-22 fiesta

A few days ago I said that I greatly enjoyed my colleague Mark Bowden's article about fighter aces but disagreed with his implication that the F-22 was the way to go for the Air Force or the country.

I have heard from many readers since then -- a few supporting the F-22, most against it. I'll start here with one representative "pro" comment. After the jump, a number of the meatier anti-F-22 arguments.

To be clear about a potentially awkward intramural point: although I disagree with Mark's conclusion, I am, as I said the first time, grateful for his engrossing article itself and for the opportunity it's created to air a range of opinion about a very important upcoming choice. He also has been extremely (and typically) mensch-like about the debate that his piece has inspired. 
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Pro comment -- rather, anti-anti -- from someone whose email address identifies him as an employee of a major defense contractor:
Excuse me, but you seem to be caught up in the propaganda of the F-15 mafia.  The F-15 mafia and others have successfully reduced the numbers of F-22 production to the point where economies of scale are no longer possible.*  Unfortunately, those who really know the issues and the data, are not going to engage in a debate, because the result is to trash our country and our capability.  Because of freedom of speech, you are allowed too participate in a debate that has not helped our country.  No complex aircraft is without problems, but maintainers have never had an aircraft which provided so much capability on day one...

The per unit cost isn't even the whole picture, the total life cycle cost is.  And cost is relative.  Do you have the numbers for all alternatives?  Anyway, you don't have the numbers, no one in the unclassifed media does. 
 * A major "anti" argument, as originally laid out by Chuck Spinney in 1991, was of course that economies of scale would never have been possible for this airplane, because the cost estimates used for the initial "buy-in" were implausibly low.

More after the jump:
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Continue reading "F-22 fiesta" »

February 22, 2009

Two tech followups: Real Alternative, HerdictWeb (updated)

Working through the lists of things I've meant to get to for a while:

1) Last month I mentioned a BBC interview with my friend Liam Casey, "Mr China" from Shenzhen, which unfortunately could be heard only with Real Player. That is unfortunate because the installation routine for Real Player is so aggressive that it can easily load your computer with ads and all kinds of other junk you don't want.

Many people wrote in to ask why I wasn't instead using Real Alternative, a free browser plug-in that plays files that have standard Real Audio formats. (.ra, .rpm, and others -- details and download links here). The reason I wasn't using it is that I didn't know about it. Now I use it and like it. According to the site-meter, Real Alternative has been downloaded more than 21 million times, so if there were some major problem we presumably would have heard. I'm sorry that Real Player has become so obnoxious to use, but this is a great... alternative. Another download site here.

2) Two months ago, I suddenly found that I couldn't reach the main New York Times web site from my apartment in Beijing. Was it some problem with my computer or router? With the ever-shaky local ISP? Some transitory problem in Beijing? With the Times site itself? Part of the genius of Chinese internet control, as I have pointed out countless times starting with this article, is its haziness. You don't run into notices saying "The site has been censored." Connections just time out, and you're never sure why.

In that case, I asked readers in mainland China if they too were having trouble getting to the NYT. Enough people wrote in from enough corners of the country to suggest it was affecting people from Xinjiang to Guangdong (like "from Seattle to Miami") all at the same time. A few days later, the problem cleared up everywhere in China all at once.

Now a group from Harvard's Berkman Center has put together an ingenious and systematic way to collect real-time info on where and how web sites are being blocked around the world. The tool is called HerdictWeb, an (unattractive-sounding, IMHO) compound of "Herd" and "Verdict." Via a main web site or a browser plug-in, it allows users around the world to send in quick, easy reports of any web site they can't reach. Then, if it works as planned, it will agglomerate those into a "crowdsourced" dashboard of web accessibility worldwide. Here's how the (groan) "herdometer" looks now:

Herd2.jpg

The site has gone up only recently and few people are using it. As far as I can tell, no one but only one person other than me has yet weighed in from China. (Hint: I'm not the one reporting the blockage of sex.com) But if it becomes popular and can handle large-scale traffic, this could be interesting and useful.
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SheepLogo.jpgUPDATE: I finally realized why the name "Herdict" bothers me. Two reasons. First, no one really likes to be thought of as part of a "herd." A crowd, maybe (as in "crowdsourcing.") Even a throng or a mob. But a herd? Second, the logo for the site includes pictures of sheep but none of cows. Cows make a herd; a group of sheep is a flock. FWIW.

February 20, 2009

More on China-US climate issues, more on F-22

- About China and the US cooperating on environmental/climate issues:
 Yesterday I mentioned this detailed and valuable report from the Asia Society and Pew. It turns out that Brookings has just done something similar. Summary here, with links to PDF versions in both English and Chinese. Transcript of event unveiling the report here. I haven't studied the report carefully, but anything in this vein has to be a plus.
- About Mark Bowden and the F-22:
Yesterday I said that I enjoyed Mark Bowden's current article but disagreed with its implied endorsement of the F-22 fighter plane. It turns out that Sam Roggeveen, of the Lowy Institute's "The Interpreter" site in Sydney, has already taken up this topic and gotten a reply from Mark. Roggeveen's initial critique here; Mark Bowden's response here. I should note that, like Roggeveen, I did a double-take at the sentence in the original article saying that at least five other countries were now flying planes that matched or bettered the F-15. For context on that point, it's worth looking here. Also, this Reuters story from three months ago talks about the real-world difficulties in maintaining the "stealth" systems for radar-evasion that are supposed to be one of the F-22's main virtues.

February 19, 2009

The US, China, and saving the world

Anyone who has looked seriously into China's environmental and energy-use emergencies ends up thinking, saying, or merely hoping that the US and China will work together urgently on these fronts. That would be good for China because it needs all the help it can get to avoid poisoning its own people. It would be good for America and everyone else because China's approach to carbon-emissions control will largely determine whether the world has any chance of dealing with climate problems.

Or to put things in a cheerier way, precisely because so many Chinese farms, factories, power plants, and buildings are now so inefficiently run*, there are more opportunities to make big environmental improvements here than practically anywhere else. (My contribution to this school of thought in this article.)

Everybody understands this point in the abstract. Now there's a useful new guide to what it might mean in very particular detail. For many months a scientific/technical task force run jointly by the Asia Society's Center on the US-China Relations and the Pew Center on Global Climate Change has worked on specific recommendations, which were unveiled last week. Press release is here; overview here; PDF of the report in English here; in Chinese here. Introductory video, with overview rather than specifics, below.

Promising Kremlinology note: the co-chair of the project was Steven Chu, who stepped down from that role only because he had been nominated (and now confirmed) as the new US Secretary of Energy. The report is very much worth checking out -- and, in my view, worth supporting and implementing.
 

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* Chinese farms and factories "inefficient"? Yes, very much so -- as I explain at length in my Atlantic article. Their output is often inexpensive, mainly because Chinese labor rates have been so cheap. But, as is typical for developing countries, they tend to be wasteful in their use of energy and other inputs. Chinese office buildings take much more energy to heat and cool than Western ones, because the insulation is so poor. Farmers often use more water and chemicals per bushel of yield than in advanced countries. Out-of-date Chinese factories use more fuel and create more pollution per unit of output than in Europe, Japan, or the US. This profligacy helps explains why the air is so murky in China, but it also illustrates the opportunity for big, relatively easy gains through efficiency here.

February 10, 2009

Spam is making me smarter

From the company spam filter for my email account just now (click for larger):

Spam3.jpg

Evidently spammers recognize that I am a man widely traveled and with broad linguistic skills.* I'll take respect wherever I can get it. 
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*Or maybe it shows only that spam filters are more mature for dealing with English-language influx than with this other stuff. No, I think it's a sign of respect.

February 8, 2009

I'm not so sure about the timing of this business concept....

From the e-mail inbox:
 

Hello,

You have been invited by Xxxxx Xxxxx to join Affluence.org.

Affluence.org is an exclusive community of affluent people dedicated to making life better for both themselves and others.

As a member of Affluence.org you will have the ability to find and interact with other affluent people from around the world, evaluate and contribute to your favorite charities, and gain access to exclusive lifestyle guides to luxury living, travel and the latest trends.Within this elite community you will be provided with access to a dedicated Affluence Concierge, receive priority access to the world's most exclusive premieres, nightclubs, parties, hotels, events and much more.

To accept the invitation to our exclusive network, please follow the link below.  XXXXXXXX.

Best Regards,

Affluence.org Administration

It appears to be a legit operation. Anyone who joins, let me know how it goes.

UPDATE: I see I'm not the first to be asked.

January 28, 2009

Offline Gmail: instant user report

From Mark Supanich, this first-hand answer to the questions I was speculating about moments ago:

I just installed it on my account, and the downloaded Google Gears app informed me that "based on my email volume" it would be storing 3 months worth of emails on my local hard drive. It wasn't clear from the notation if it would be doing that for each browser I access gmail from. There was no option or information (even on the help page) to choose how far back it cached emails on my computer, nor any info on if it would constantly update to clean messages older than three months from the cache. It did note however, that any message in my Inbox, no matter how old would be cached, and that spam and items in the trash would not be cached.
OK, total of two minutes taken away from "real" work! Turning off email account for next 12 hours or so. Thanks for the clarification.

Big news on the personal tech front (assuming it works)

If this really works, it transforms the world of email -- and may be the step that will finally liberate me from Outlook and its gigantic, touchy PST files: offline access for Gmail. Report in the official Google Enterprise blog here. Early report from Network World that alerted me to the development here.

I have, alas, enough real-world, late-on-deadline, day-job writing ahead of me in the next 24 hours that I don't even have time to check this out and see how it works. There will be much more to say later on about what this means for "cloud computing," for desktop apps (like Outlook), for Google's plans, and all the rest. And I certainly will try to get it applied before my next long plane trip not long from now.

For the moment it is sufficient to say: Check this out!

Update: An initial "wait a minute, how will this really work?" second thought. For all of Gmail really to be available and searchable offline, the entire cache of old messages would obviously have to be stored on your own hard disk. That's now a maximum 7+ gigs per regular Gmail account. More if you've bought extra storage. Do I really want to have all of that on my laptop -- which is the main place where offline access matters? From a couple of Gmail accounts? And Google's "Gears" system of offline sync, already in use with Google Docs, seems to create a separate cache for each browser you use it with. So you could wind up with one 7GB cache for Firefox, and one for Chrome, and...  Will there be a way to choose how far back you'd like the sync to run?
 
Back to "real" work -- I'll worry about all this later. 

January 27, 2009

One small step for transparency

I believe I was the first person in the "general" press -- and if not, then among the first two or three* -- to notice that the one part of greater Washington DC that was obscured from view in Google Earth was not the CIA headquarters or the Pentagon or the White House itself, but rather... Dick Cheney's house, or as it is more formally called, the Naval Observatory grounds.  Here's how the Vice Presidential compound looked on Google Earth until very recently.

CheneyOld.jpg

Now, as several sources (eg here) have noted, the Vice President's official house is being treated like other sensitive structures in DC -- or Beijing or Moscow or Paris or Tokyo or Baghdad. That is: as worthy of protection on the ground, but not of being airbrushed out of recognition in a fashion worthy of the old Soviet era (or of today's "security theater"). I noticed this last night when checking neighborhood maps in Google Earth. It is by a steady accumulation of these small changes that we'll appreciate how much there is to undo after the past eight years.
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* Maureen Dowd did a widely-cited column on the blurring in December, 2005. Earlier that year, in tech columns for the NYT's business section in April and then again in May, I noted the odd blurriness of Cheney's house. I say this just for the record -- and have moved the mention to a footnote in keeping with footnote-scale significance.

January 26, 2009

Security theater: now in improved, online version (updated x2)

Yesterday I mentioned the toy industry's patriotic attempt to build proper security consciousness into the kiddies. (I also like the detail that this was no doubt made in some factory in southern China, by workers who had yet another reason to marvel at the consumer tastes of their foreign customers. UPDATE: Who wudda thunk!? It turns out that Playmobil toys are mostly made in Europe, with only a few from China. Sorry for mistaken assumption.) Here, again, is the Playmobil item as offered on Amazon:

SecurityTheater.JPG

Thanks to many correspondents I learn that this item has been around for several years and has attracted a lot of customer reviews and comments. If you start with this one you'll get the idea. BONUS UPDATE: The last word that need ever be said about the Playmobil TSA set appears to have been said several years ago! By Daniel Solove here.

Also, and even more patriotic and heartening, I learn that there is an online Airport Security game! You play the role of a TSA screener, pulling prohibited items out of purses and backpacks -- and trying to keep up with changing lists of what's allowed and what's taboo.

AirportSecurityGame.jpg

Someday they'll put this stuff in museums about our era. (Thanks to Allen Knutson and Carl Malamud.)

January 23, 2009

Trouble in the software business: this time, it's serious!

Via my friend Bruce Williams, an accomplished aviator, flight instructor, and technology guy,  I hear that the first-ever, 5000-person cuts Microsoft has just announced in its work force include the team responsible for Microsoft Flight Simulator. Williams himself, who was a major figure on that team across six versions of the program over 15 years, presented the news on his website under the headline: The End of Microsoft Flight Simulator.

Sigh. Further reflection the news here and here.

Of course there are other flight simulators. I've always loved X-Plane, even before its creator, Austin Meyer, started flying a real-world Cirrus airplane (fancier version of the kind I used to own). Still, there was something magical about even the earliest versions of Flight Simulator, with the familiar opening shot of a little plane ready to take off from the sadly now defunct Meigs Field in Chicago. At this fascinating site you can see screen shots from those embryonic versions, which provide a startling reminder of how much imagination you needed to apply when using the earliest computer games:
 
FSScreen.jpg 

(See if you can detect any change in graphics in the intervening years: below is a screen shot of Flight Sim X, via Tom Bukowski at Smugmug.com:)

FSX.jpgfor

I don't mean to make light of real pain and hardship caused by software layoffs and those in all other industries. But the end of the FS era is poignant enough on its own to deserve a mention.

January 13, 2009

If you write me from EarthLink, here's why I won't write back

I've got nothing at all against EarthLink, its managers, or its general business reputation. On the contrary: it seems an admirable company.

But I've come to dread getting any email with an @earthlink.net return address, and here's why: If I go to the bother of hitting Ctl-R (in Outlook) and sending a response, I know that I'll then be put to several rounds of further bother, because of EarthLink's annoying and narcissistic (and optional) "challenge-response" anti-spam system.

I previously complained about this in the Atlantic. The system works by keeping a "white list" of approved email senders. If someone writes in from any non-white address, EarthLink's filter bounces back a note to the effect of, "Who the hell are you?" You then have to fill out forms or interpret cryptic characters to prove you're a real person, not an e-bot, so that your message may be granted a writ of certiorari for consideration by the recipient. After the jump, samples of two such messages I have received in the last hour.

I get a lot of mail from people who write in about articles in the magazine or posts on this site. Mail comes in via the "Email" button you see to your right on this screen. If I write back, I do so from one of my normal email accounts. Very rarely is that address already entered on an EarthLink sender's white list. So the resulting cycle is: you write me on EarthLink; I take the time to write back; then Earthlink sends me an annoying message and asks me to do more work (like decoding the text in the box below, taken from an actual Earthlink challenge screen) before it deigns to disturb the sanctity of your inbox.

captcha-1.jpg

Why do I consider this narcissistic? Because it assumes that the other person's time and tranquility are more valuable than mine.

Yes, spam is an issue. Yes, my situation is different from some other people's, in that a significant share of email is with "first-time" correspondents who are writing in cold to the magazine, rather than an established group of friends. Still: if someone writes to me without previous "white listing," I don't like having to petition for the privilege to respond.

So, I remain happy to hear from EarthLink users, as from all others. But as a matter of policy I will no longer reply to messages from that domain -- unless you tell me that you've disabled challenge-response!  Samples of what makes me crabby below.
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December 21, 2008

Last words on NYT.com block in China

With apologies in advance for the self-referential quality* of what I'm about to say, I recommend this recent entry by fellow Atlantic Monthly contributor Adam Minter on his ShanghaiScrap blog. He makes a point that is obvious once you think about it, but which I hadn't seen laid out quite this clearly anywhere else: 

The point is that a nationwide firewall-block on the NYTimes.com site, if that is indeed what's happening, is not simply questionable as a PR strategy for the Chinese government. It also emphasizes how much the information ecology has changed.

The NYT is, in my view, indispensable as a source of reported news around the world. One of the big and really alarming trends of 2008 is the hugely-accelerating economic pressure on organizations like the NYT that support reporting rather than pure opinionizing. But as Minter details, blocking this flagship site means a lot less than it used to -- and a lot less than the censoring authorities may assume -- no matter how good a job the NYT's team is doing, because of the rise of reported blogs:
What's curious to me - in fact, what's astounding to me - is that the Chinese authorities either haven't picked up on this phenomenon, or they don't care. Instead, they are doing what Chinese officials always do: focusing their attention on the entity with the most prestige. Quite honestly, I think most Chinese officials would have a hard time believing that the rather rag-tag unwashed mass of (for the most part) young, male, poorly compensated bloggers could actually drive news coverage.
* The self-referential part is that Adam Minter originally sent this as an email to me, which I encouraged him to spread more generally. I hope you agree that it's worth reading.

December 20, 2008

NYTimes.com in China: Sunday morning update

1) For me, back in Beijing, the main NYT site is fully blocked, if I'm using the plain Chinese internet without a  VPN or other burnishment.

2) Anyone who really wants to can find what's on that site -- with a VPN, by going through the International Herald Tribune site, by trying mobile.nytimes.com from a hand-held device, or with one of the tech workarounds mentioned here yesterday.

3) Without the relatively fast, informal-but-informative polling made possible by the internet, it would have been harder to establish that this was happening all over the vast country all at once. So thanks for writing in.

INTELLECTUAL RIGOR BONUS POINT 3A) As a matter of logic, one cannot be absolutely certain that this is a purposeful, country-wide blackout. Conceivably there is some other technological or accidental explanation. I consider this extremely unlikely, given: that the same computer that won't load the pages while using a normal connection loads them instantly when a VPN is turned on; that the pattern is reported in every corner of the country, from Urumqi to Dalian to Zhuhai and points in between; and that it involves a site about which the government has complained before and that has recently carried some sensitive items. But logically, we cannot exclude the possibility that it's all an accident.

4) While the porous nature of the current NYT block is consistent with past Great Firewall practice, the motivation for this episode remains unclear at the tactical level and puzzling at the strategic. I won't review the tactical possibilities, some of which were mentioned earlier. The real question concerns the strategy.

As i argued last month in the Atlantic, China's official PR machinery often succeeds mainly in making the country seem far more closed-off, impenetrable, defensive, and difficult to deal with than it actually is most places most of the time. By that logic, what exactly will China gain through this episode? The vast majority of Chinese net users would never look at NYTimes.com anyway -- it's in the wrong language. Those who really want to see what's on there can find a way to do so, despite the block. And how confident, open-minded, rules-abiding, modern and so on will the episode make the Chinese government look in other countries' eyes? Governments everywhere are annoyed by the press, but a mark of being in the big leagues is viewing press criticism as a necessary annoyance. This just is strange.

December 19, 2008

Tech followups on NYTimes.com blockage in China (updated)

On December 19, the NYTimes.com site was apparently blocked all across China. For the sake of completeness, these followups.

1) Could the problem be related to a recent physical break in three of the four main internet cables connecting Asia to North America? (As reported here and elsewhere.) Maybe -- but at face value that wouldn't seem to explain why the NYTimes.com site loads at normal speeds when you're using a VPN but times-out when you try it through the plain, old, Great Firewall-screened Chinese internet. It also wouldn't explain why most other international sites seem to behave normally.

When the main undersea cable off Taiwan was cut in an earthquake nearly two years ago, you knew it immediately. Internet traffic in most parts of Asia was either interrupted altogether or brought to 300-baud dialup modem speeds. But maybe this recent break somehow contributes to the NYT problem?

2) After the jump, tech details on an important point I didn't mention: Consistent with hit-or-miss, far-from-airtight nature of Great Firewall censorship, even when the site www.nytimes.com is blocked, http://nytimes.com is not. Go figure.  Also, various mobile web devices seem to be able to reach any site they want.

3) I mentioned yesterday that exactly one person, from Guangdong province, had written to say that he could reach the NYT site with no problem. I heard from him again just now. Today his connection is blocked. The change in my situation is the reverse. I started having NYT problems last night -- but at the moment, it's working fine, even with the VPN turned off. It's the mystery and miracle of Christmas.  Tech details below.

UPDATE: From a friend who knows the nuances of high-level Communist Party maneuvering far better than I do, this hypothesis about what's going on:

I suspect that while the reason behind this blocking is not yet clear,  the process--and thereby the motivation--might be a bit less obscure. That is, given that consensus drives policy decisions here, it is very likely that different parts of the bureaucracy weighed in and officials each had a gripe with the NYT coverage of some or another issue.  Collectively, they were able to push through a directive to block it.

The people here overseeing foreign journalists also know that there will soon be a new contingent manning the desks of the NYT bureau here.  Those officials want to send a clear signal that they expect more positive ("objective") coverage of China.
I suppose all will be revealed in due time. Or maybe never.
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Poll results are: NYTimes.com is being blocked throughout China (updated)

There seems to be no question: the New York Times web site is being firewalled right now all across China.

Exactly one person wrote me, from Shunde in Guangdong province, to say that he had no problem getting to www.nytimes.com and following links from the main page.

A second person wrote, from Beijing, to say that his connection was also working - and then wrote back a few minutes later to say, sorry, he forget he had the VPN turned on. Without the VPN, the site was blocked.

All the other replies (of slightly over 100) reported either that the home page wouldn't load at all, or that it loaded but that all of the links were blocked. As explained earlier, both of these are typical of the way the Great Firewall operates.

I got "blocked-connection" reports from people in the far west, in Urumqi; in the south, from  Zhuhai and Shenzhen and Dongguan and Guangzhou; from the north and northeast, in Shenyang and Dalian and Changchun; and from all the other big cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Wuhan, Chengdu, Xian, Qingdao, Nanjing, Changsha, Hangzhou, Suzhou) and a bunch of smaller ones like Baoding and Ya'an.

Hypotheses:
  • Is the site blocked because of this big story today by Jim Yardley, about the economic perils China faces after 30 years of growth? Maybe .... but I have heard far worse prospects routinely discussed here at conferences, on Chinese TV shows, and by Chinese government officials in recent weeks. So that doesn't seem to make sense.

  • Is it blocked because of this story, by Edward Wong, reporting on the death sentences issued for two Uighurs convicted of killing 17 people in an attack on a police/military station in the far nothwestern town of Kashgar just before the Olympics? This could well be the problem. The threat of separatism in the mainly-Muslim northwestern Xinjiang region is an extremely sensitive topic in China. As Wong points out, his story carries several details of the action that differ from official Chinese government accounts.

  • Or is it blocked because of this unbelievably fatuous passage in yesterday's column by David Brooks: "Chinese people work hard because they grew up in a culture built around rice farming. Tending a rice paddy required working up to 3,000 hours a year, and it left a cultural legacy that prizes industriousness." Yes, culture matters; and yes, the structure of Chinese education, family patterns, and still-dominant agricultural life makes a difference in how people behave (not to mention the legacy of the Cultural Revolution, the years under Mao, the one-child policy, and so on). But to write something like that with a straight face suggests that one has never seen actual Chinese people at work (or ostentatiously not working) or thought about how many factors account for the wild variations in work ethic, purposefulness, scholastic aptitude, basic honesty, devotion to duty, etc among people who all supposedly share the rice paddy legacy. I would give some credit to the Chinese firewall minders if exasperation with this sort of talk were the reason for the shutdown. In fairness to Brooks, in the column he might have just been paraphrasing an argument by Malcolm Gladwell.

  • Or is it being blocked for some other reason?

I don't know.  But this is a more heavy-handed step than I remember seeing in the past two and a half years.

Anyone who really wants to, can get around this barrier. Via proxy server or VPN; by going to the International Herald Tribune's site, which carries many of the same stories but is not blocked; through other news aggregators; by just waiting for the policy to change. But something is going on. (And, as also explained in the earlier Great Firewall article, the goal of interfering with the internet is not to make the barrier air-tight. It's simply to make finding unauthorized information enough of a nuisance that most Chinese people won't bother.)

I'm left with one other mystery: why my own connection in Beijing has been working just fine, even when I don't use the VPN. Hmmmm. 
UPDATE: Mystery solved. As of midnight Friday China time, now I can't reach NYTimes.com without a VPN either. The home page loads but all the links time out. I am one with the masses!

Thanks to all who answered.

Another very impressive Obama pick

No, not Pastor Rick Warren; I'm with the multitude thinking this is one of Obama's rare clumsy steps.

Instead: John Holdren, who according to AAAS's Science Insider site will become the president's main science advisor, as head of the Office of Science and Technology Policy.

Unlike, say, the inspired choice of Eric Shinseki to head the Department of Veterans Affairs, there is no fancy multi-level symbolism in the selection of Holdren. His nomination is more comparable to that of Steven Chu at the Department of Energy: he is a figure of unquestioned eminence in his field, with significant experience not just in hard science but also in the application of science to public policy.

And like Chu, much of his recent professional attention has been directed at energy and climate questions. Holdren has also worked extensively on nuclear nonproliferation, and seven years ago won the $250,000 Heinz award largely for that effort. Noting the wide range of disciplines and pursuits that have engaged him (he has also directed Woods Hole Research Center), Holdren said in his Heinz acceptance speech:
One might wonder from the array of interests of mine that have just been mentioned, whether I simply have a short attention span, but I do like to think that there is some method in this madness. I think that many, if not most, of the great problems of the human predicament - population, resources, environment, prosperity, security - are not separate problems, but are intimately interconnected. And I believe if they're not all addressed and solved together, they won't be solved at all.
After the jump, some quotes from Holdren on energy and climate change from an Atlantic article by Mark Sagoff back in 1997.

Here's the only reason I can think of to worry about this pick: Knowing how bureaucratic politics works, but not myself knowing much about Holdren or Chu personally, I can imagine their shared roles as scientists-in-chief working very well, if they're a natural team, or not so well, if they are in the slightest degree turf-conscious or jealous. We'll see.
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Poll among readers in China: is NYTimes.com now blocked?

Even without using my VPN, I've had no trouble reaching NYTimes.com or similar Western news sites in recent days from Shenzhen or Beijing. And that's from my same old apartment-house ISP in Beijing that is subject to all the standard Great Firewall strictures. (For chapter and verse on how the Great Firewall works, go here.)

But today I heard from one reader in Chengdu, another in a different part of Beijing, and another in Guangzhou that they were suddenly not able to reach the NYT site. Very few things in China happen in a consistent, everywhere-at-once way. But I am curious about whether something larger is underway. 

If you're within Chinese territory could you try NYTimes.com without using a proxy or VPN and see whether you can get through? If you send me a note, via the "email me" feature on this site, and tell me what city you're in and whether you got through, I'll post the accumulated results when there are enough to show some pattern.  All I'm looking for is: "Xian, YES" if you CAN get through, or "Shenyang, NO" if you can't. I won't reply to those messages but will tally them up and report later. Thanks!

UPDATE: I have already heard from several people that the main page of the NYT comes up but the links are disabled. (This is consistent with one of the patterns of GFW blocking I mentioned in an article on the topic.) So could you click a link, too, to see if it works? I have gotten a lot more "NO" replies, indicating problems, than YESes so far.

December 15, 2008

My last words on the Steven Chu front

Previous words on Chu here and here.

1) A great 57-minute TV interview with Chu, conducted in 2004 by Harry Kreisler of UC Berkeley as part of his generally-great "Conversations with History" series.



In my experience over decades of conducting interviews, the people who are truly the greatest masters of their own rarefied fields often have a gift for explaining complex problems to outsiders in vivid, non-condescending ways. Think years ago of Richard Feynman, of Caltech, plunging a rubbery "O-ring" into a glass of ice water to demonstrate how it might have become rigid and failed during the launch of the doomed space shuttle Challenger. Think of Bill Clinton illustrating any point with one of his home town analogies.

Chu comes across very much that way in this session. Modest, funny, and willing to explain the work of of a scientist in terms and images most people can understand. A scientific explainer-in-chief? It would be nice to have such a person once more on the public scene.

2) Let's analogize one more time to another great Obama cabinet pick, Eric Shinseki as Secretary of Veterans Affairs. "Identity politics" was not the most important element in Shinseki's selection. "Policy politics" was what mattered most: Shinseki's having been right about Iraq. But there was an additional grace note, noted in particular by many Japanese-Americans, that a military leader named Shinseki was given this honor on the anniversary of Pearl Harbor Day.

So too with Chu. Identity politics is a second- or third-order aspect of this nomination. Mainly his choice says something about the role of real science in public life, about America's commitment to retain its leadership as a research power, and about the redoubling of scientific/technical efforts to deal with energy and climate problems. But in karmic terms it doesn't hurt that Chu, who was born in St. Louis of Chinese parents, will head the very department that, under then-secretary Bill Richardson, was involved in the Wen Ho Lee imbroglio in the late 1990s. (In brief: Lee, who was born in Taiwan and who worked at Los Alamos, was accused of massive theft of U.S. nuclear secrets on China's behalf. The NY Times loudly trumpeted this story. Eventually nearly all the charges were dropped, and the presiding federal judge apologized to Lee for government excesses.)  Again, this is not a reason to have chosen him, but it's worth noticing.

December 14, 2008

More on the case for Steven Chu at energy

When Eric Shinseki was nominated as the new Secretary of Veterans Affairs, I argued that this was an inspired pick, on its own merits and for its sublime symbolism. (The man whom the Bush administration had ridiculed for being right about Iraq now restored, with honor, to cope with, among other things, the consequences of the Bush policy).

When Steven Chu was nominated as the new Secretary of Energy, I said that this was an even better choice, in both symbolism (no-kidding scientist to head what has become the government's leading science agency) and substance (his post-Nobel prize work has largely involved pushing for fundamental research on energy). Fortunately my friend Steve Corneliussen has done the work of spelling out some of the support for that assertion. Corneliussen, who is a writer rather than a scientist, has worked with the American Institute of Physics and other professional organizations. After the jump, parts of his email reporting reaction among the scientists he has been talking with.
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December 3, 2008

Updates on "Forgetting? Fuhgeddaboudit"

Three quick followups to yesterday's mention of an IBM research project that would involve all-hours recording of all circumstances in your life.

1) As many, many people have noted, yesterday's English version of Spiegel Online carried a story about a woman with this very capacity naturally built into her own brain, and she's not so crazy about it.

2) After the jump, an extended version of the IBM release on the topic, which has more details and hints at some of the promising but complicated implications of this kind of effort.

3) From reader Karen Weickert, an account of an earlier foray in the same direction, under the auspices of Paul Allen's paradoxically secretive-but-publicized, and now defunct, Interval Research Corporation. (Long and interesting 1999 Wired story on Interval here.)
In the 1990's, a research shop funded by Paul Allen worked on a number of the IBM projects described in their press release.  Specifically, the "memory" idea was put into practice by a researcher who strapped a video and audio recorder to his body, and recorded his daily rounds for weeks.  He attempted to capture 360 degree audio and video.  The point was to never miss anything that happened in your day, such as important conversations, your child's first steps, etc.

What happened instead is that no one wanted to speak with him.  We assume in conversation that what we say will not be recorded and played back directly (if we are not politicians, of course).  If all social interaction was assumed recorded, as opposed to the opposite, our shared world becomes something very different.  It was creepy. 

There were a number of other projects toying with social connectedness and interaction -- virtual offices and researchers connected through "surround sound" for example.  Again, something important about our assumptions of social interaction were broken.  We assume all work happens when groups are connected, but of course, we are private beings as well.
Extended IBM release after the jump.
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December 2, 2008

Quasi-nerds only: interesting little compare and contrast

Two of America's tech powers -- IBM and Microsoft -- have given glimpses of what they consider the most exciting and promising research opportunities for the future. Their lists are fascinating in their own right but also in a comparative sense, for what they show about the two companies.

There will be more to say about specific items later on. For now, you can see IBM's list of "Five Innovations That Will Change Our Lives in the Next Five Years" here, and a Network World report on 10 hot projects from Microsoft's research center here. I think much about both companies is revealed by the comparison -- not to mention the implications for all of us if these visions are fulfilled.*

Now, where's Google's list?
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* This one from IBM has philosophical ramifications worth exploring in the longer run:
Forgetting will become a distant memory
Information overload keeping you up at night? Forget about it. In the next five years, it will become much easier to remember what to buy at the grocery store, which errands need to be run, who you spoke with at a conference, where and when you agreed to meet a friend, or what product you saw advertised at the airport. That's because such details of everyday life will be recorded, stored, analyzed, and provided at the appropriate time and place by both portable and stationary smart appliances. To help make this possible, microphones and video cameras will record conversations and activities. The information collected will be automatically stored and analyzed on a personal computer. People can then be prompted to "remember" what discussions they had, for example, with their daughter or doctor by telephone. Based on such conversations, smart phones equipped with global-positioning technology might also remind them to pick up groceries or prescriptions if they pass a particular store at a particular time. It's not hard to imagine that TVs, remote controls, or even coffee table tops, can one day be the familiar mediums through which we tap into our digitally-stored information.

November 21, 2008

Somewhat encouraging environmental report

A real if inglorious fact about environmental and climate-change issues is that people can stand to read only so much depressing news. Especially when the rest of their life is depressing enough. The economy's falling apart, half the people I know are losing houses or jobs, so what do I feel like doing at 10pm: pick up a thriller / turn on a comedy, or read further details about how the polar bears are drowning and the forests are dying and we're all doomed anyway?

And imagine if the election results had gone the other way.

So it's worth highlighting every bit of information that gives a believable (not flat-earthish or denialist) reason to think that sensible actions, taken in time, can make a significant difference. This was one of the virtues of my friend Gregg Easterbrook's 1995 book A Moment on the Earth, feather-ruffling as it was at the time. This has also been a consistent strategy of Amory Lovins' work at the Rocky Mountain Institute.

In a similar vein, I highly recommend this new report from the American Physical Society, the professional organization for physicists in the United States, about the very specific hows, whats, wheres, and how-much's of practical ways to increase energy efficiency. A cover letter says (emphasis added by me):

Can lower energy consumption come about in the United States? It already has. Per-capita energy use in California, about half the national average, has stayed flat for the past 30 years, largely through an ambitious program of appliance standards and other innovations in building design....

The report points out that the enhanced funding need only match federal energy research levels in place in 1980. Research around that time led to a major improvement in efficiency standards. For instance, compact fluorescent lights and refrigerators now use about one-fourth the energy needed for comparable models of 30 years ago. Air conditioners are twice as efficient as those in 1980. Such dramatic improvements in energy use could be sustained, many experts argue, but only if a concerted energy research program is put in place.

I assume the Relevant Government Officials are well aware of such data -- at least ones from the incoming administration -- but it doesn't  hurt to have the general public know too. (Thanks to UCSB physicist / Cirrus pilot Roger Freedman.)

Why didn't I know this before? (Math dept: Benford's law)

One reason math is so satisfying is that it allows you to see order in what is otherwise the randomness of life. For instance, the famous Fibonacci sequence, which shows up in countless natural patterns like this:

FiboShell.jpg 

Math is also satisfying when it helps you understand what parts of life truly are random or "chaotic," rather than adhering to patterns you haven't yet figured out. The most obvious example is the minute-by-minute movement of weather systems. The world's vast weather-forecasting computers can assess the layers and eddies of heat and moisture in the air and tell you where "convective activity" -- thunderstorms -- is more and less likely to occur. (An example from NOAA here. I spent hours looking at such stuff in my pre-China piloting days.) But a day before landfall, they can't really be sure whether a hurricane will hit New Orleans or someplace in the next state.

So I was grateful to discover, via Michael Ham's Later On blog, another mathematical tool with surprising usefulness in daily life -- and one that, to my chagrin, I had never heard of before. It is called Benford's law, and it has to do with the distribution of numbers we use to count many naturally-occurring phenomena.

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November 19, 2008

Realms converge: DayJet, VMware. Weird!

Time and again I've praised (or eulogized) DayJet, the radically innovative but now out-of-business air taxi company based in Florida. And I've praised VMware, the still-in-business California company that lets you run Windows and Mac software seamlessly side-by-side on a Mac.

Now it turns out that one of VMware's main backers is... preparing to invest in the software from DayJet!

In my Atlantic article on DayJet earlier this year, I emphasized that it was, in its founders' view, a software company that happened to operate airplanes. That is, its real strength lay in the sophisticated algorithms for matching airplanes, passengers, pilots, and destinations. The weakness was the real-world big-ticket cost of the airplanes, which brought the firm down when the credit crisis began.

Paul Maritz, a Microsoft veteran who is now CEO of VMware, is according to this TechFlash report, interested in DayJet Technologies, a spin-off company designed to apply the DayJet systems elsewhere As the TechFlash story said:
 
There are some interesting clues as to why Maritz and others in the technology industry are excited about DayJet.

Georgia Tech professor George Nemhauser, who helped develop DayJet's technology, said via phone that the system could help airlines, trucking firms and other transportation companies plan more-efficient routes between locations. Or, he said, it could be used by government agencies to plan evacuation routes during public emergencies. The original promise of the DayJet airline, he said, was to allow travelers to book flights when they wanted them rather than relying on an airline's set schedule.

"The whole idea is disruption technology," said Nemhauser. "You get a plan for something, and then a disruption occurs -- weather or something else -- and you have to make a new plan very quickly."
What's left for me to dream of, in the convergence department? Maybe news that a craft-beer company is investing in software that will make it easier for me to speak Chinese.

November 18, 2008

A fascinating document about the internet and "public opinion" in China

Outsiders who follow Chinese events have known for years about Roland Soong's EastSouthWestNorth site*, which draws from Chinese-language and English-language sources for reports and analysis.

I've just seen this post, from a few days ago, which strikes me as something that people who don't normally follow Chinese events should know about. It's the text of a speech Soong prepared for last weekend's annual Chinese Bloggers conference (but did not deliver, for family-emergency reasons). In it, he discusses the differences the Internet has, and has not, made in the Chinese government's ability to control information and maintain power within China.

This is a subject easily misunderstood in the United States, where people tend to assume either that the cleansing power of the Internet will ultimately make government efforts at info-control pointless, or, on the contrary, that the bottling-up effectiveness of the Great Firewall will protect the government from the power of an informed citizenry.  (My own Atlantic article on the subject here.)

Soong elegantly illustrates why such categorical assumptions miss the complexity of what's going on. The whole speech is worth reading, but the passage below is especially important for Americans. First he describes the way info would flow when bloggers and net connections first became significant in China, around 2003:

1. A bad thing happens somewhere in China (such as police brutality, government malfeasance, a forced eviction, a coal mine disaster, etc).

2. The local government suppresses all information.

3. All media reports are censored.  (But if it wasn't reported in traditional media, there are other alternatives now on the Internet.)

4. The victims begin a petitioning process up the hierarchy in order to seek justice.  The road is long and hard, and nothing ever comes out of it.

5. The Internet forums/blogs rushed to report on the case.  But within approximately 48 hours, all traces of information are erased by order of the authorities.  (Thus, one of the excitements of my blogging activity was to find and translate that information within this time window.)

6. Western media catch wind of the incident, and follow through.  This creates an international scandal.

7. Senior Chinese officials take notice, and corrective actions are taken.
Then he describes what has changed in the past five years, in this 2008 update:

Continue reading "A fascinating document about the internet and "public opinion" in China" »

October 29, 2008

This hardly seems sporting

On the right, the brave little USB memory stick of yesteryear, now retired.

On the left, the new, metal-clad, password-protected, online-backed-up, run-over-it-with-a-truck-and-it-will laugh, RSA-encrypted, programmed-to-self-destruct-if-you-enter-the-wrong password-too-manytimes, IRONKEY that is replacing it, kindly sent by a friend. That's the actual metallic ironkey in the middle, sitting on top of its explanatory brochure.

 


The USB stick is heard to say, "But I was pretty strong too! For my size."

October 24, 2008

More on the lean times / VC / startup front

In three accounts over the last week and a half (here, here, and here), I've mentioned how the chaos of financial markets is spreading to the tech sector, and what that might mean for the timing, scale, and duration of damage to the "real" economy in which companies make products and create jobs. 

Central to this discussion has been a grim report from Sequoia Capital, in California, arguing that startup companies had to strip themselves to bare bones if they hoped to survive they next few years. Of course the process of stripping, which involves laying off employees and cutting all costs, perfectly illustrates how economic damage cascades

Some people have written back to say that the report was prescient; others, that it was part of a perhaps too-alarmist swing by the VC community that, whether or not this was its intention, had the effect of terrifying startup companies into accepting much tougher terms from funders.

After the jump, a contrarian view from Alan Patricof, the managing director of the New York VC firm Greycroft Partners, taken from a message to associates this month. Eg, "This is not a time to panic, cut off all investment in the future, and burrow into a dark hole. Take a page from the packaged goods industry that the time to gain market share is during tough times when your competitors are weaker in responding." Because Patricof makes some political comments, it's relevant to note that he has been a leading backer of Hillary Clinton's senatorial and presidential campaigns.

I realize this is not a black/white, all-or-nothing question -- Sequoia was recommending very selective investment too. And I don't intend to run endless back-and-forths. Still, I thought this was a worthy equal-time complement to the preceding argument. And, as my friend Ted Schell of New York, a former associate of Patricof's, has noted, it may illustrate an East Coast / West Coast difference in outlook, with the Easterners atypically more optimistic: "Frankly I think the west coast VC community [including Sequoia] is much more inclined to excesses than the east coast - excesses in valuations, amounts invested, return expectations and reactions to floundering or under performing companies." More below.
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Continue reading "More on the lean times / VC / startup front" »

October 21, 2008

Sobering news dept: The Hobbesian world of startups

Twice in the last week (here and here) I've mentioned the presentation that a leading California VC firm, Sequoia Capital, gave to CEOs of the companies it had funded. The message was: severe turbulence ahead, strap yourselves in, and to survive you must throw every bit of surplus weight and cargo (ie, employees and expansion plans) off the craft.

My friend the business strategist Lawrence Wilkinson (who is involved in a company with one of my family members) recently posted a fascinating item on his "Scenarios and Strategy" site about the other side of this interaction: the ways some private equity firms are using tough times to get very tough on the companies they have backed.

The tension between funders and entrepreneurs is familiar and well-explored territory. Any interesting account of the tech economy presents it as a major theme. To take one example from many possibilities: Charles Ferguson's High Stakes, No Prisoners, the tale of creating and selling his own tech company. Yes, this is the same Ferguson who last year produced the influential Iraq documentary No End in Sight. The basic tension of course arises from the fact that VCs want to use the scarce resource they control -- money -- to get more of the scarce resource that company founders control, namely shares of corporate ownership, including the cut of the rewards if a startup makes it big.

But Wilkinson, who has seen many rounds of this battle before, says it has taken on a newly nasty tone. According to him, many of VCs and other funders are now saying: bad times mean your company isn't growing as fast as we hoped. So, we will take more of "your" share:

I've been awash in reports, some in the press, some from friends, of private equity investors leaning on the companies in which they have stakes to reprice those stakes- to give the investors more.  The arguments from one case to the next are idiosyncratically different in their details, but they all have the same general thrust:  "we made our investments expecting more growth than it now seems likely the company will achieve, so you (the company) should give us a bigger stake."...

The issue is in no way misrepresentation... The issue that called the question was.. the sudden dramatic downturn in the economy:  credit is tight; anxiety is high; spending has dropped like a rock...  a situation triggered- and to some extent at least, abetted, if not indeed caused- by the excesses of the very financial firms now doing the demanding.

I've been around long enough to have gone through several busts; I've learned that many (if not most) investors understand opportunism to be not just their right, but their obligation.  (And indeed, I've seen some forms of opportunism contribute powerfully to turn-arounds.)  But I've never seen opportunism practiced in such a rapacious way as these recent days- nor, I'd suggest, so desperately nor short-sightedly selfishly....

It's a situation all too resonant with the first version of the Paulson Bail-out Plan: privatize the upside; socialize the risk.

The whole thing is worth reading, and is another illustration of the ways in which the recent  financial turmoil, serious enough on its own, is taking on a more destructive and longer-lasting form as it begins to burden the operations of the "real" economy.


I don't quite believe this, but... (USB finale+1)

This really is the last chapter in the saga of the brave little USB stick. (Multi-part background here.)

To helpful friends writing in to say that it is time to give the poor thing a rest, leave it on the shelf in its treasure box, don't risk shorting out the whole laptop, and for God's sake use some of the other USB memory devices sitting around the house, I say: Thanks! Got it! Already put this plan into effect!

But before it goes away for good, this final USB achievement to note. Yesterday, one day out of its WD-40 bath, the USB stick would properly store and list files, but apparently had something wrong enough with it that it could not pass the integrity test for Windows Vista's "Ready Boost" function.

Today, it passes that test. Proof in the Vista screen shot below. The ReadyBoost cache is the next to last file listed, 4GBs in size. I won't say "USB Stick, heal thyself!," but something happened.

And as soon as that shot was taken, the plucky device was "Safely Removed" from its slot and placed in its satin-lined box, where it watches over the rest of the tech establishment. Talk about going out on top.

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/Oct21USBA.jpg

October 20, 2008

USB: Finale

It is time to revisit our friend, the brave little USB.

As previous accounts have described, it has been a difficult couple of months for this blameless device. Two inadvertent trips through a Beijing washer and dryer, each followed by restorative dunks in WD-40; loss of protective carapace, rotted away by this same WD-40 or perhaps the local air; and most recently and alarmingly, a heart-stopping pop, spark, and instant shutdown when drops of Chinese beer "somehow" got on it the USB's naked circuitry while it was plugged in and operating.

Sigh.

This morning, after a weekend's thorough laving and drying, I plugged it in once again, expectations low. I powered up the computer, and -- see for yourself, this time on a Mac:

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_5316A.jpg

Different-angle live action shot:

In case it's not obvious, the red light in the middle shows that the USB is still working. For further proof, here's a screen shot of the files on USB stick, done just after I created a new file with today's date and saved it directly onto the USB. If I had a live-audio feature, you could confirm that I am now playing "Sittin' on the Dock of the Bay" from the MP3 file shown:
 


So, what have we learned from this heartbreaking, inspiring, and unavoidably embarrassing set of mishaps? Relevant questions and answers after the jump.
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Non-politics: David Allen's 'GTD Times'

It was only four years ago that I wrote in the Atlantic about David Allen, the "productivity expert" and inventor of the influential Getting Things Done (GTD) approach to life. I say "only" four years because it feels as if Allen and his outlook have been with me for a much longer time.

It's hard to top the wonderful LifeHacker blog as a source for practical tips about gadgetry workplace tools, habits, and shortcuts, many in the GTD spirit. But for the last six months, David Allen's organization has been operating its own "official" blog, called GTD Times. I like it -- and as a sample, I direct your attention to this recent post, arguing that you really do become dumber and slower if you try to do too many things at the same time. This applies not only to that modern plague of texting-while-driving (or walking) but also to having a zillion IM and other popup windows on your screen while you work. For doubters, there is a sobering online test to demonstrate the point, taken from the book The Myth of Multitasking.

What other point was I going to make? I forget, I was thinking about something else...

The little USB stick...

... is going to make it! (Background here.)

Photos and case report when it comes out of the recovery room.

Phew.

October 17, 2008

Nerds-with-a-heart only: the passion of the USB

Poor little USB!  Previous chapter here, which includes links back through the whole trail of tears. When last sighted, the USB had been through a Chinese washer and dryer twice, had been resurrected through the miracle balm of WD-40, and was now chugging along in a working computer, minus any protective shell.

(Reminder picture here:)


 
Let's not get into the details, but ... while operating in that exposed state, the little USB got some, ummmm, beer all over it. It made a snazzling sound, there was a little spark, and suddenly there was no more "Removable Drive F:" on the computer. The beer was only Yanjing, the Beijing area's answer to Shanghai's REEB, so it was as benign and watery a splash as it could be. Still....

Powered down the computer, and started the USB on a long, long soak in WD-40. Now the extensive drying out process begins (below, fresh out of the WD-40, on a napkin from a local eatery). When the vapors of WD-40 have dissipated in a day or two, we'll see just how much this tough little device can take.
 
 

October 14, 2008

Non-politics, non-depressing: nice software updates

In the "look on the bright side" spirit, a word about two pieces of software, both previously mentioned but now in new releases, that I appreciate, admire, and rely on all the time.

- SugarSync, by Sharpcast. Several months ago I noted that I found the product's name slightly creepy but was intrigued by its features. I've used it daily since then and have only better and better things to say.

Its purpose is to keep files in sync among a number of computers. It does that in a way so effortless that you stop even thinking about the program's presence. SugarSync easily connects PCs and Macs and, in some circumstances, handheld devices. Meanwhile, it doubles as an online backup for all the files in your computer, which is of course useful if you have a crash but also if you are in one part of the world and realize that file you want is on the computer back at your office or house. It has recently introduced several new features, including one that lets you safely edit files that "live" on your home computer from any internet-connected computer anywhere. Really a smooth product, by whatever name.

- Fusion, by VMware. I have previously praised this software ad nauseam. Its point is to let you run any Windows-based program, driver, system software, you name it, on an Intel-based Macintosh -- and, unlike the Mac's own Boot Camp utility, to do so right alongside native Mac programs, cutting and pasting from one to the other. I've mentioned it before because it has been practically bulletproof. As a side note for later discussion, in general it allows Macs to run Windows programs better and faster than most ordinary PCs, mainly because it supports a "pure" version of Windows rather than one burdened by the horrible, unwanted, pre-installed features known as "craplets" that have made so many PCs so unpleasant to use.*

A new version 2.0 of Fusion has been released, as a free upgrade for users of earlier versions. This new release has eliminated the one problem I'd ever had with Fusion (a screen-corruption issue, discussed here) and has many other enhancements.

The similarity that connects SugarSync and Fusion is that each represents another step toward freeing users from purely practical concerns -- did I remember to copy that file? do I want to work on it with a PC or a Mac? -- so they can concentrate on the actual ideas and work they want to deal with.

One further bit of cheer: If you use either Gmail or Google Chrome and have not committed to muscle-memory the extensive keyboard shortcuts for each of them, you're working harder than you need to. Gmail keyboard tips here; Chrome's, here.
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* If you start with a Mac and buy Fusion, you also need to buy a copy of Windows, ideally XP, which you then install in the Fusion part of the Mac. Since you buy this copy of Windows as a standalone CD/DVD, not as something pre-installed by Dell or HP or whomever, you get it in pure form, not encased in all sorts of other junk that comes on most PCs now.

I'm increasingly convinced by the argument that Windows Vista seems so terrible in part because it mainly comes on newer machines that groan under an intolerable burden of these craplets. I am sorry to say that my once-beloved ThinkPad brand seems, under Lenovo, to be tarnishing itself in this way. Turn back before it's too late, Lenovo! More on this later.

October 13, 2008

More on the Sequoia Capital presentation

Yesterday I mentioned a presentation by the tech VC firm Sequoia Capital, about what the financial contraction would mean for start-up businesses and the tech economy in general.

After the jump, extra notes on the presentation from someone at the meeting.

This account appeared first on a subscription-only site, TheFunded.com, so I won't quote very much of it. But even a brief sample suggests that when future economics teachers want to give their classes a concise lesson in how economic downturns spread, or what a "vicious cycle" means (a term prominently misspelled in the Sequoia presentation itself, one of several signs of a rush job), they can use this session as a convenient example. Thus:

The VC firms warn that tough times are at hand; their advice is that all their startup companies cut, cut, cut, laying off as many people as possible and eliminating every purchase or investment they don't absolutely need to survive. The startups do that-- and then the companies they used to buy from have to begin cutting drastically themselves, as do the people all these firms have just laid off. Everyone is buying less, and... The point is right out of Ec 101, but this is a particularly clear and real-time example.
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Continue reading "More on the Sequoia Capital presentation" »

This is impressive, and yet sort of sad (USB immortality dept)

Over the last three and a half months, I have recounted the travail of my brave little USB stick:

First an unanticipated trip through the washer and dryer. Then, miraculously, it survives and still works! Then, a warning from a tech savant that corrosion is already setting in. Then, a bath in WD-40 as salvation. Then, another trip through the washer and dryer. And another WD-40 dunk. And all the while...  still chugging along.

Here is how it looked after the first ordeal:
http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_4087.jpg

Yesterday, I grabbed it to switch it to another machine, and the plastic housing simply fell off. Post-traumatic stress effects of the washer and dryer? Of WD-40? Of general abuse? Who knows. Yet even in this naked, skeletal condition ....  still it works. Though here is how it looks these days: The bare green circuit board, shown plugged into a ThinkPad, is what's left of the USB stick. It's hard to see in this picture, but its red LED light is flashing, showing that it's actively doing something. (Click for closeup.) The castoff plastic housing, like a shed skin, is beneath it, in two halves.

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_5294.jpg

I will rename my USB stick "Hawking," signifying a being that, as its corporeal shell has suffered and been diminished, has been distilled to its pure thinking essence.

Very sobering report from Silicon Valley

A number of friends in the SF Bay Area have directed me toward this recent slide show by Sequoia Capital, one of the biggest-deal tech VC firms. It's been widely viewed in the tech world and is said to reflect, and no doubt partly shape, the prevailing sentiment. (Update: Also, I see now, it was recently mentioned on the NYT tech blog.)

At least for me, with an ever-shaky internet connection here in Beijing, the 56 slides of this presentation are quite slow to load. But they have a lot of useful data about the origins of the current crisis, plus a lot of chastening advice for companies that want to survive. I introduce them here as part of the effort to shift attention from the purely financial-market disasters of the moment, important as they are, and toward the longer-term implications for the companies that create products, jobs, and real wealth.  

Clickable version below; or this direct link to "Sequoia Capital on Startups and the Economic Downturn." Caveat lector -- by which I mean, in this case, not so much that the reader should beware of the source as that we should beware of the conditions ahead. 

September 13, 2008

One time only: Java-Javascript smackdown

Truly nerds only.

Twice in recent days (here and here) I've mentioned my reactions to Chrome, the new browser from Google. A number of dopes "low information readers"* have written asking what I have against this new entry in the browser wars.

Nothing at all!  I am now using it, alongside Firefox, on all three computers here in the Beijing HQ -- one ThinkPad, two Macs. (I am composing this post via Chrome, on a MacMini.) Chrome is Windows-only but runs fine, like all other Windows programs I've tried, under VMware Fusion on the Macs. It is a very interesting program with some immediate advantages over Firefox. Most obvious one: when you have a lot of web pages open, a freeze in one page or "tab" is unlikely to make all open pages freeze, as can happen in Firefox.

My point, to clarify for those who can't read benefit from repetition, is an "enthusiasts versus civilians" distinction. If you are a computer enthusiast, of course you're going to find this fascinating and worthwhile. If you're a civilian user -- not interested in the process, just in getting the results -- I say, there are enough transition difficulties that you should wait a while. Wait, for instance, until Chrome can easily handle RSS feeds, or has extensions like Firefox, or runs in native-Mac version, or has improved bookmark handling.

Now, the promised smackdown. Recently I posted comments from one tech veteran, Ken Broomfield, about what Chrome's emergence says about the "early days" of web programming, ie the mid-1990s. In included the argument that if the Java programming language had developed the way it could and should have, a lot of latter-day workarounds would not be necessary.

After the jump, the Other Side of the Story, from another tech veteran who doesn't want to be named. This is an one time only "fairness doctrine" airing of a contrary view. I lack the expertise to referee future rounds of argument, and there are other places where nerds can hash it out. But since Fox News is not the only institution that believes in fair and balanced coverage, I post this response below.

* Apologies to anyone who took offense! A splenetic little joke, based on too much email from people who, in my view, were not trying hard enough to understand previous posts.

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Continue reading "One time only: Java-Javascript smackdown" »

September 12, 2008

Non-political: more on Google Chrome

Three updates for the price of one!

1) Basic up-down decision: After a week of using Chrome on my Windows machine and under VMware Fusion on my Macs, I restate my original triage judgment with even more conviction. If you're interested in software, by all means check it out. If you mainly want to get your work done, don't bother -- yet. For ordinary non-nerd civilian users, the improvement touches in Chrome are outweighed by the inconveniences. For instance: can't use any of the numerous invaluable "extensions" for Firefox. And RSS feeds work poorly if at all.

2) Nerds only: This article in Network World does a very nice job of explaining the philosophy behind and implications of Chrome's technological design.

3) Browser nerds only, concerning i-Rider: I have long had a soft spot for a $29 browser called iRider, from the company Wymea Bay -- which, as it happens, is based in California rather than Hawaii. When introduced five years ago, iRider was way ahead of Firefox and IE i browser-convenience features and still has a number of slick touches, mainly for dealing with a lot of open pages at once.  (Feature overview here.)

And to illustrate the company's "cut the BS spirit," here is what its page says about compatibility with different operating systems (it's Windows-only):

As will surprise no one who follows the technology press, we still cannot recommend Windows Vista. If you're using Windows XP, we'd advise you not to upgrade to Vista, and buyers of new computers should consider having XP installed, which is an option many manufacturers still offer.
After the jump, on a nerdy-nerds only basis but very interesting for that audience, a message I received from Ken Broomfield. He is iRider's founder and earlier was one of the key developers of the indispensable XTree Gold. He has a note about the ironies and the potential of Google's introducing Chrome. Skip if you're bored by inside-baseball details - but if you're interested, read on.
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Continue reading "Non-political: more on Google Chrome" »

Immortality update (USB department)

As recounted previously here and here my doughty little 8GB USB stick has now survived two inadvertent but complete trips, two months apart, through the washer and dryer. After a day-long bath in WD40 and a thorough air-drying process, it is now back in duty... and again working like a champ!
http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_5245.jpg

I had been sobered by the expert view that, despite its brave initial recovery from the trauma,  the USB was already doomed because corrosion of its tiny circuits had begun. It was bound to fail in four to eight weeks. Then another expert said that WD40 could reverse the process...

It's now 10+ weeks since the first wash-dry cycle. Every four weeks or so I'll report on its health -- until I get bored, or I have to report its demise.

Meanwhile, I have received a note about a kind of "Survivor" USB stick designed to go through the washing machine -- and nuclear winter, and whatever other torture test you have in mind. I'll try to take this in the right spirit -- and not as if I were a diner in a restaurant being offered a bib after repeatedly dripping food all over myself. Thanks, I think, to Dave Proffer for the tip.

September 10, 2008

New hope for the dead (USB dept.)

Ten weeks ago, I revealed the heartening news that a little PNY Optima Attache USB stick had gone through the wash-and-dry cycle in a pants pocket, and had come out working fine.



Or so I thought. Several correspondents soon pointed out that the tough-seeming device was actually on a terminal watch. The corrosion had started, and it was a matter of time -- maybe four weeks, maybe eight -- before the circuits rusted all the way through and the device simply stopped. In the words of the Book of Common Prayer, "in the midst of life we are in death."

Then another reader suggested that a bath in WD-40 could hold off the inevitable... maybe indefinitely! I got a friend to bring me some from the US, and about a week after swimming in hot, soapy washing machine water the USB stick was being gentled laved with the balm of WD-40.



That cure seemed to work for ten weeks, until today, when - for reasons still being litigated here in the Beijing HQ -- the same stick went through the washer and dryer AGAIN.

When it came out -- amazingly -- it worked AGAIN. But taking nothing for granted, I have plunged it immediately an inch-deep pool of WD-40 and will put it through a careful resurrection process. If it's still alive in two months, I will report this achievement. Or I'll report its demise.

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* To spare the usual readers the effort of sending the usual email: Yes, I do realize that USBs are inanimate objects and therefore can't technically be "dead." This is similar to my being aware that, despite making a light reference to Marie Antoinette, there are significant differences between my situation and that of an 18th century queen of France destined for the guillotine. Every now and then I recklessly employ the concept of "whimsy" or "a minor joke" in online posts.
 

September 8, 2008

In which I reveal myself as Marie Antoinette (VPN dept)

Through the past year-plus I've discussed several times the value of Virtual Private Networks, VPNs, for avoiding the hassles created by China's internet-control system generally known as the Great Firewall. I won't give one more plug for the for-pay service my wife and I have been using, since I've mentioned it so often. But at $40 per year, per computer, to us it is worthwhile.

In an Atlantic article six months ago about the Great Firewall, I noted that $40 per year meant different things to different people:

An expat in China [me!] thinks: that's a little over a dime a day. A Chinese factory worker thinks: [$40] is a week's take-home pay. Even for a young academic, it's a couple days' work.
My reaction to a new VPN offering shows that I may have forgotten my previous point. The service is called Hot Spot Shield, from AnchorFree. It's effective, extremely easy to install and run, designed for both Windows and Mac -- and absolutely free. (To download,  and for more info, go here.)

I first heard about this from my friend Simon Elegant, and then from other China-based users. I tried it and found it technically very nice and efficient. But I didn't like using it at all. The reason is its "ad-based" business plan. In order to underwrite its free VPN service, it inserts an inch-high banner ad, often flashing, at the top of every new web page you load or visit. There is a "close" button on those ads, but unless you click it every single time, you have an extra, flashing ad wherever you go.

To me, on a day at the desk when I might open hundreds of new web sites, it is worth a total of 11 cents not to see a flashing banner at the top of every one. But the recent surge of interest in Hotspot Shield within China suggests that for lots of people, this is an attractive tradeoff.

Update: Peter Bollig reports that the Opera browser automatically ignores the banner ads. Probably others can be configured the same way, but I didn't take the time to figure out how to do so with IE or Firefox.

Continue reading "In which I reveal myself as Marie Antoinette (VPN dept)" »

September 6, 2008

Non-politics: Google Chrome, first in a series (updated)

If you're interested in software just because it's interesting, you should definitely check out Google's new web browser, Chrome, at the download page here.

If you're interested mainly in using your computer, rather than tinkering with it, there's no huge rush. Also, Chrome is Windows-only for now, XP or Vista; Mac version in the works.
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(From the wonderful comic book-style user's guide:)

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August 21, 2008

How to avoid becoming a Kindle nerd-bore

Only one way: Just shut up when tempted to say or write anything about it. Otherwise you'll be driving people crazy with your enthusing about how useful and convenient it is, and what its potential might be, and how many elegant decisions are evident in its conception and design.

I'm talking mainly about high-level functional design: what should the whole system be able to do? What functions should be built in or omitted? Rather than the physical industrial design of the device itself -- which is quite nice but is widely recognized as Ver 1.0 of something that will go through many refinements and tweaks.

After the jump, two points about functional-design elegance, then maintaining silence on this subject for as long as I can:
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August 20, 2008

On the ages of the female Chinese gymnasts

I haven't watched any gymnastics, live or on TV; don't follow the sport; and have no opinion on how old members of various teams look and how much that matters.

But this new post, from the Stryde Hax blog, does an impressive technical job of finding information that has not yet been removed from caches of official Chinese sites. At face value it makes a strong circumstantial case that one of the gymnasts, the double gold-medalist He Kexin, was born in 1994 rather than 1992, making her 14.

235312.jpg

The post also includes links to two cached screenshots of Chinese birth records that, for now, still exist. (Many others have been very recently removed.) See them here and here.  No harm in saving or printing a screen shot..... These are Chinese charts that show name, sex, date of birth, place of birth. The name in question is 何可欣, and one of the lines where it appears says:

618,"何可欣","女","1994.1.1","湖北"

(# 618, He Kexin, female, Jan 1 1994, Hubei)

Worth further looking into.  A very nice touch is that Stryde Hax shows us all his work, so the searches are checkable.  (Thanks to John Scott and of course Slashdot.)

Update: Really, I don't care about gymnastics! And as noted before I'm delighted that China is doing so well in these games, and sorry about Liu Xiang. What interests me in this case is the technical sleuthery of the guy who found the cached pages, and the deeper issue of "transparency" in the Chinese system. Revising public records is not something Chinese people or outsiders should want to see.


August 10, 2008

Nerdy nerds only: Version 1.0 of Chandler officially released

For more than a decade I've followed the genealogy of the personal-info manager now known as "Chandler."  A little while ago I got a message saying that it had (finally!!!) been released.

Background:
  • Some of the earliest Paleolithic rumblings here, in the second half of an Atlantic article written in early 1996. The first half of the article describes the wacky new concept behind a approach to software called "Java," and gives quotes on that subject from a promising engineer at Sun named Eric Schmidt.

  • Another installment here, from eleven years ago, which gave the tragic history of Lotus's too-innovative Agenda program -- and the still-live ambitions of its sponsor, Mitch Kapor, to create the info-management program of everyone's dreams.

  • Two years ago, this update on how Kapor was faring now that he had named this dream program "Chandler" and moved its development to the Open Source Application Foundation, which he initially funded. And late last year, this interim report on how an early version of Chandler looked and worked. And let's not forget Scott Rosenberg's very good book about the whole Chandler project, Dreaming in Code.
 Now version 1.0 is ready for release. I am downloading it, in Windows version on one machine and Mac on the others, as I type. Linux is available too, and all are free.

Continue reading "Nerdy nerds only: Version 1.0 of Chandler officially released" »

August 8, 2008

Nerds only: very impressive new beta of VMware Fusion

Recently I mentioned that I was having a video-corruption problem with a Beta 1 version of VMware's Fusion. (For those late to the story: Fusion let's you run Windows programs on an Intel-equipped Macintosh, right alongside the normal Mac programs. Parallels software does the same thing, but I like Fusion better.)

I'm still having that video problem with the new Beta 2 of Fusion. Perhaps that will make my compliment all the more sincere when I say that the new release is a truly phenomenal piece of engineering. I hope VMware fixes the bug that is annoying me -- and that, according to VMware, is in fact a flaw in Apple's own video drivers for the MacBook Air. But even with the bug, which is work-aroundable since it shows up only in Fusion's "unity" view, I highly recommend this program.

The earlier incarnations of Fusion already went far toward making the Mac a useful platform for those who don't want to relearn all their computing habits or cut themselves off cold-turkey from the vast world of Windows-only software. I have been using it for several months, on a MacMini and a MacBook Air, to run my workhorse Office2007 programs (Outlook, Word, Excel) plus a number of Windows-based favorites, like Zoot and BrainStorm.

The new Beta 2 release includes, among many other things, three big features that matter to me:

keyboard mapping
, so you can make a Mac produce keystrokes that its own (deficient, IMHO) keyboard lacks. For instance, the equivalents to Ctl-Home and Ctl-End in Word, to get to the beginning or end of a document, on Mac portable keyboards that don't have those keys -- or PrintScreen, or Insert, or a slew of others. You can assign any command that's missing from a Mac keyboard, or that your fingers are used to producing in a way the Mac doesn't normally allow, to keys it does have;

Continue reading "Nerds only: very impressive new beta of VMware Fusion" »

July 28, 2008

Trouble in paradise: VMware Fusion + MBAir + Firefox

I've mentioned previously my admiration for  Firefox 3, VMware Fusion, and the MacBook Air -- the last with some limits, since its elegantly stripped-down design makes it great for traveling but too limited (in disk space and ports) to be a "main" computer.

These three elements are very good individually and even better together, with one exception. Since the release of Firefox 3, I've found that running it at the same time I'm running Windows programs under Fusion, on the MBAir, frequently leads to a video-corruption problem that makes  the screen look like this:




It doesn't happen if I'm using Firefox without Fusion, or using Fusion without (native Mac) Firefox. Unfortunately, Firefox and Fusion (which allows you to run any Windows program) are two programs I use all the time. When they're running at the same time and I am switching from one to another, sooner or later I will have this problem. It doesn't cause lost data, but it means a tedious chore of closing down and backing out of programs when you can't see what's on the screen. The menu bars still are visible, and work, but you have to guess-remember what the on-screen dialogue box is saying as you close each program.

VMware claims this is an (acknowledged) Apple video bug in the MBAir, and that Apple will some day fix it.  I haven't asked Apple's side of the story. I mention it just for the record, as the one and only serious instability issue I've had with the MBAir, and as part of the continuing quest for de-bugging our technological lives.

July 27, 2008

Newbie Kindle reactions (cont)

1) Whole different way of thinking about buying books:

Sitting on the airplane at Newark airport Friday afternoon, getting ready for the 13-hour flight to Beijing. People are still trudging aboard, still OK to talk on the phone, chatting with a friend who mentions a great new book he's sure I'll want to read. While talking with him, I take out the Kindle that I got three days earlier, search the Kindle online store, find and buy the book, have it delivered to the Kindle to read during the flight -- all within about two minutes total. Huge reduction in the gap between "thought that a book might be interesting" and "paying money for that book." Works only for books in the Kindle catalogue, of course.  Implications not so good for book stores but positive for the overall industry of selling ideas  / thoughts / writing, I would think.

2)  And about not buying books:

Giant supply of books for free download, in Kindle and other eBook formats, here and here, among other sites. They're mainly out-of-copyright classics, from Ulysses to War and Peace to Huckleberry Finn to Persuasion to Looking Backward to The Oregon Trail to Anne of Green Gables to the Complete Works of Shakespeare (and many by PG Wodehouse). Plus a few new ones. Small donations solicited here. In most cases you download to your computer and transfer to Kindle via USB cable, which is extremely easy.

3) And about the process of reading:

Spent six or seven hours of the flight reading on the Kindle. Perfectly pleasant and legible. Only one inconvenience relative to " real" books -- harder to flip ahead or back several pages at a time. (You scroll page by page, or else go to the table of contents.) And a kind of mental-picture adjustment: it's easier to insert bookmarks or placeholders, or seach for a specific word in the text; harder to have a remembered visual image of a certain passage as it fits on a certain place on a page. Not good for books where pictures, illustrations, maps, production quality matter a lot. Very, very good for reading Word .DOC files or .PDFs that I would otherwise have to read on the computer.

My theory: television didn't eliminate radio, telephones didn't eliminate personal conversations, eBooks won't eliminate real books. People always find more ways to communicate, and this will be another way. Very good for some kinds of information, not so much for others. A welcome new addition to the mix. 

July 23, 2008

I'll try not to become a nerd-bore on this topic too, but: Kindle

Had resisted buying one because I knew that the spiffy wireless-delivery service wouldn't work outside the US, and anyway I didn't have time for yet another gadget.

I eventually spent enough time to learn (duh!) that I could use it wherever I was in the world, with or without wireless delivery. You just download the e-book files to your computer, over the plain old internet, and then transfer them to Kindle with USB cable.  So as part of the provisioning run on this quick trip to the U.S. I ordered one and received it yesterday.

First impressions are all of the "beating expectations" variety. Screen nicer to read than I expected. Navigation takes about one minute to learn. Instant-gratification feature more satisfying than expected. You think: I'd like to read that book! A minute later, it's literally in your hands. On my last provisioning run, I wanted to get Joseph O'Neill's celebrated and then-new novel Netherland. But it wasn't in any of the book stores that I passed by, and I didn't have time for "legacy" Amazon shipments. Now I have it, for about $10 versus about  $25.

Unexpected and potentially important practical aspect: I'm always getting very long book or article manuscripts to read, usually in .DOC or .PDF files. I don't want to use the paper to print them out, so generally I have to be at a computer to deal with. But I can email them as attachments to a Kindle.com address; then for 10 cents a document, they're resent to my own Kindle in a form I can read and annotate when not at a computer. Have already used this system to queue up a couple of book-length manuscripts I'm supposed to read while on the road in the next week or so.

We'll see how this wears -- in particular how this replicates the intangible satisfactions of reading an actual book. I like holding and reading real books. We'll see how likable these virtual books are on longer exposure.

Main drawback I foresee right now: my wife being distinctly unamused if on our next trip together or next evening at home I end up starting at yet another digital device. This may have to remain a private vice.

July 16, 2008

Two sophisticated and well-worth-reading documents on national security

1) From Bruce Schneier, renowned and sensible expert on taking terrorist threats seriously without overreacting and defeating ourselves in the process, on exactly which aspects of the Chinese "hacker" menace are worrisome, and which ones aren't.

     Executive summary: these hackers aren't controlled by the Chinese government or military and basically are sharp, cocky young men showing off their technical skills. "The hackers are in this for two reasons: fame and glory, and an attempt to make a living." That is reassuring in some ways and not in others. But the essay should be read in full. (Thanks to Edward Goldstick for tip.)

2) From one Barack Obama, on the mixture of military strength, non-military influence, assertiveness, and restraint that will advance American interests in this era of ongoing terror threats, ongoing Iraq and Afghanistan combat, financial and economic chaos, resource and energy crises, rise of China, unruliness of Russia, and so on. Full text and some video here.

     Executive summary: any speech that begins and ends with allusions to George C. Marshall's vision 60 years ago is quoting the right authority but setting a high standard for itself. This is a speech rather than a whole implemented years-long program, in contrast to the great Marshall's achievement. But as a speech it stands up very well and deserves to be read and absorbed in toto rather than relying on news clips.

July 3, 2008

Dead men walking, USB-stick variety

"In the midst of life we are in death," as the Book of Common Prayer puts it. Every faith has a way of conveying the same idea.

The technology world's version is the sad recognition that any device starts becoming obsolete the instant you buy it. But there perhaps should be a specific line or verse referring to USB sticks. I mentioned recently that one of mine (a PNY Optima Attache model) had survived a trip through the washer and dryer and still worked fine. Reader Gary Allen Vollink brings the unsurprising but sobering news that all is transience even with the hard silicon of USBs:

The corrosion starts once they get wet. There's no stopping it. It will die suddenly and unexpectedly. It will probably take between 4 and 8 weeks.
Sadly, I've done this with THREE already, and one of them was also an Attache. They all reacted - pretty much the same way.
That is -- back up your backup.

Book of Common Prayer: "Man that is born of a woman hath but a short time to live, and is full of misery. He cometh up, and is cut down, like a flower." Tech world: "Back up your backup." It comes to the same thing.

Update: this does nothing about the human "in the midst of life" problem, but reader Matthew Wilbert reminds me that soaking the USB stick in WD-40 can do wonders against corrosion. "That's (more or less) why it was invented." FWIW.

July 1, 2008

Endurance champ (flyweight division)

Yesterday I mentioned that because I couldn't find a USB stick, I had rigged up a clumsy ad hoc network just to transfer one file.

It turns out that the USB stick wasn't actually lost. It was.... only resting, deep in a pocket of some pants that had gone into the wash. The pants have now come out of the wash -- in specific, a trip through the washing machine and the dryer, though not the ironing board. Of course only after all that was the USB stick discovered.

With a sense of doom, I tried it -- and it still works fine! All the files that were on there before are on there now, and perfectly readable. I just used it to make another file transfer: no problem. It even passes the performance tests for "ReadyBoost" service as temporary RAM under Vista.

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_4087A.jpg

So if you're looking for the USB stick that, in the words of the ancient Timex slogan, takes a licking and keeps on ticking, I say: look no further than the PNY Optima Attache 8GB model. This genuinely surprises me. And think of the seconds you'll save not having to empty your pockets.

PS the reddish background in the picture above is not some lush grosgrain but the back cover of Bowl of Cherries, a racy recent comic novel about teenaged lusts, the war in Iraq, modern college life, etc. It is the first novel from Millard Kaufman, who was born in 1917. He is said to be at work on his second. Endurance champ of a different sort.

June 30, 2008

Catching up quickly UPDATED & CORRECTED!

Clamboring toward and through the airport for the long flight "home" to Beijing -- whose own airport has the delightfully old-school identifier PEK -- two items leap out at me from quick exposure to headlines of the past week.

1) The Chinese government has closed down Time Out Beijing. (According to the Times of London, via Paul Karl Lukas.)

What???? As I was discussing ever so recently, the security agencies in the Chinese government have chosen the run-up to the Olympics as the moment to crack down on citizens and foreigners in the most ham-handed of ways. Like its familiar Time Out counterparts in other major cities, TOB is a frothy but very useful entertainment-and-lifestyle guide. And even this is an intolerable menace? As the Times account said:
The decision seems to have been taken not because of any racy or politically incorrect content. Time Out Beijing has fallen victim to the accelerating imposition of restrictions on any aspect of life in the capital deemed to pose a potential threat to a smooth Olympics.

UPDATE: It appears that this episode is a little more complicated than it appeared at an in-airport glance. Perhaps it involved Olympic-crackdown matters; perhaps it was largely a question of following business-licensing laws. Overview of the snarls here, at China Law Blog, with many subsequent links including to Shanghaiist and Beijing Boyce. In the meantime, this will teach me about catching up too quickly or passing on tips I haven't checked out myself. More later.

2) According to Steve Lohr of the NYT, even Intel has decided not to "upgrade" its own computers to Windows Vista? Wow and wow. Out of a sense of sportsmanship and a dim awareness that if I've said something 99 times I may not need to say it the 100th*, I've kept to myself recent illustrations of the ponderous nightmare that the Vista Experience has meant for me. But this, from the other half of the Microsoft-Intel partnership that for years has ruled the PC world, has got to sting.

And it of course is a fitting complement to a related, bonus half-item: the now-widely-circulated and wonderfully expressive and human email from Bill Gates about his own frustrations in using Windows XP. I would really like to see what he said when trying to make Vista work.**

I think I hear the boarding call.
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Continue reading "Catching up quickly UPDATED & CORRECTED!" »

June 23, 2008

Response from Mozilla on a rumored security concern

A few days ago I got a note from a technically-minded friend who also has worked in the military/security field. He wrote with a warning about a problem with the newly-released official version of Firefox 3.

He said, “Browsing history can no longer be readily cleared upon exit as with previous versions (like release 2). It is now stored in an encrypted file that, any turkey with half a brain, can readily decrypt, or if they have physical access / web access to your machine, can download / copy at will.” This person travels frequently in China and said he considered this too serious a risk if he had to leave his machine unattended. “I think this is not the browser that I would want to travel around many places and work with.”

Worse, he said, when he went back to Mozilla to find the Firefox 2 install files so he could return to a system he found more comfortable, the files were no longer there.

I was about to post his comments and say that while this person was more security-conscious than I was, the point was worth knowing about in illustrating how much more digital information about ourselves we leave at every turn. Then I thought: why not ask Mozilla?

It turns out that, according to Mozilla, these concerns are unfounded. I heard back quickly from John Lilly, Mozilla’s CEO, and Mike Beltzner, the program lead for FF3, about where these apparently-missing features could be found. If anyone has harbored concerns like my friend’s, responses (tied to this screenshot) come after the jump.


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June 20, 2008

Update on The Ribbon

It appears that I am indeed the last person in the world to figure out how to conceal the large Ribbon at the top of Office2007 apps -- Word, Excel, etc. Good to find this out! And extra tips:

1) Ctl-F1 is the easiest way to get the job done, toggling the Ribbon on and off;

2) Double-clicking on one of the headings at the top of the screen "View," "Insert" etc also works as a toggle. This I knew.

3) Something I didn't know, and that is quite elegant for the keyboard-centric like me. If you have minimized the Ribbon, you can then hold down the Alt key -- and guides to the keyboard shortcuts for various commands appear. (Actually, this Alt-key trick works if the Ribbon is full-sized too.) There are many of us who have spent years learning the sequence of keys to get a job done without going to the mouse. Most of them still work, and this Alt-key trick provides clues. Picture below shows effect of Alt key with normal sized Ribbon -- for instance, Alt-A-L to align copy to the left.

Thanks to Erik Love, Steve Endow, and a cast of thousands.

How did I go so long without knowing this? (First in a million-part series)

Microsoft's two big releases of 2007 were Vista and Office2007. At least I liked one of them! The new Office07 products -- Word, Excel, PowerPoint etc -- have a number of small refinements that I appreciate. They look much nicer than their predecessors, at least to my eye, and they're technically improved, including with a new file format that takes only half the storage space of previous versions. Some of the commands are annoyingly different from the ones my fingers had been used to for years. But, conveniently, in most cases the programs will still recognize what you're trying to do if you hit the old sequence of keys.

What I don't like is "The Ribbon." This is the big banner at the top of each Word, Excel, etc display that takes up an awful lot of screen space with its new menu of commands.

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/Officeribbon2007.jpg

Two reasons I object to The Ribbon: it's big, intrusive, and busy, getting in the way of the actual material I'm supposed to be thinking about. And, it reflects the same questionable design trade-off as Microsoft's previous and dreaded Clippy feature -- "You seem to be writing a letter!", that Clippy. These quasi-tutorial aids are possibly useful the very first time or two or ten you use the program and are still figuring it out. The next million times you use it, after you've learned how it works, these "assistants" just get in the way. Or, again, that's how Clippy and The Ribbon are for me.

Am I the last person on earth to figure out that you can make The Ribbon go away in Office 2007 programs? It is easy, though underpublicized. I came across it by accidental keystroke. You right-click at the top of the screen, in the command bar or the big fat Ribbon zone; you chose "Minimize the Ribbon," and it is gone! Five or six more usable lines of screen real-estate immediately come into view. (Depends on the specific program, font size and zoom factor, etc.) And if you need to see ribbon commands at any point, you just click on "View" at the top of the screen and it toggles on and off.

If anyone else had been in the dark: well, now, let there be light.

June 18, 2008

For nerds and Sinologists alike: the Firefox 3 snarl

As mentioned two days ago, the Mozilla organization, creator of Firefox, has been trying to gin up a world-wide effort to get as many people as possible to download the official version of Firefox 3 on its release day, June 17. And if users around the world hit the servers all at once, they could set a Guinness World Record for most downloads in a 24-hour span. Great!

So of course when the fun began about 12 hours ago, as the release files went up and users everywhere logged in -- the Mozilla servers promptly froze and crashed.

Let's see. You're a leading internet company, and you're drumming up action from all around the world for what you hope will be a simultaneous assault on your servers, maybe you should be prepared for... a huge surge in traffic?? Just a thought.

And, hmmm, why does this make me think of the Olympics?

Continue reading "For nerds and Sinologists alike: the Firefox 3 snarl" »

June 14, 2008

Nerds only: Firefox Download Day

This is fundamentally silly -- people pledging online to set a world record for software downloads in a single day. Fortunately, the software in question, the official release of Firefox 3, is highly worthwhile. Beta and Release Candidates have been available for several months and are great. Download day for the official version is this coming Tuesday. Windows, Mac, Linux.

The Download Day Map lets you say where you'll be when you download. If I'd thought about it, before answering honestly (China) I would have chosen some place where I've actually been but that is underrepresented in the count -- say, the Falkland Islands or Liberia. Not that I'm in favor of giving misleading answers to polls. The map of pledged downloads actually is quite interesting: as of now, 263 Firefox users are (reportedly) signed up from North Korea!

June 9, 2008

Mac nerds only: becoming a believer on the battery front

I mentioned earlier that I was using a pricey (~$300) battery extender, from QuickerTek, to make up for one of the MacBook Air's biggest limitations: that you can't swap its battery out. The device in question is the square thing on the left in the photo below. And, yes, that's the Windows XP welcome screen, running very nicely on the Mac under VMware Fusion. If you squint, you can even see the icons for Zoot and Brainstorm, my trusty PC programs. Outlook and X1 are in there too.

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_3803A.jpg

Latest data point: during travel yesterday I used the MB Air away from an electric plug, but with this battery extender, for ten straight hours and was nowhere close to using up the power. Details after the jump, but my experience is: for a price, this is a way to eliminate all questions about whether you can get enough working time out of the MBA.

Continue reading "Mac nerds only: becoming a believer on the battery front" »

June 4, 2008

Not about politics! More on file-sync

I mentioned yesterday that I was trying, and liking, the (blush) "Magic Briefcase" feature of the program SugarSync. It's an easy way to work on the same set of files, on different computers, and always have the current version on hand wherever you work.

As one, the blog-reading public has risen up to remind me that in any discussion of sync programs, it's important to include a familiar contender, Microsoft's FolderShare, which I have used in the past and will try again; and a newer (to me) entrant, AutoSync from Memeo.

I will give them both a try and report results. What are computers for, if not to fritter*? In the meantime, be advised of these sync possibilities too.
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* My friend Stephen Manes, novelist and tech writer, has lifetime copyright to the term "fritterware" to describe activity of this sort.

June 3, 2008

While waiting for political news, three nice things to say

1) If you're looking for a file-sync program it's worth checking out the widely-praised SugarSync. The name gives me the creeps, and I'm almost embarrassed to use its "Magic Briefcase" feature. But these people have figured out something important: an easy way to keep files synchronized among a bunch of computers.

I actually do use three computers almost interchangeably: a ThinkPad PC laptop, a MacAir notebook, and a MacMini desktop. I always taking notes or checking off items on files I want to keep current among all the machines. (Word files; Excel files; my oddball Zoot and Brainstorm files; and others.) I've generally transferred these from machine to machine with a USB stick, or emailed them back and forth. Overall, this is a pain, plus it can be hard to remember which file on which machine is the current version. With the "magic briefcase" feature, which I won't explain, changes in the files on one machine are instantly available on all the others.

SugarSync is initially available on free trial and then costs about $30 a year, which I'll probably pay. It makes me reflect on how computer spending has changed. I very rarely spend money for actual software any more. But I'm paying more and more for services -- $40 a year for a VPN, $25 or so for photo storage, $40 or so for online backup service, more than I want to think for internet service and international cell phone and data service, and about ten others I can't think of now. I guess I'll think of it as part of the evolution toward a "service" economy.

2) Beijing guidebooks -- this is the one to get:

Continue reading "While waiting for political news, three nice things to say" »

May 30, 2008

Nerds only: new Outlook indexer "Lookeen"

As mentioned earlier, I have twice installed and twice removed versions of the much-touted Outlook indexer Xobni. In theory Xobni was great; in practice, for me, it was no good because it gobbled so much of my computer's memory and CPU that it paralyzed everything else on the machine. Details in previous posts.

Through controlled experiment I think I've established that my Xobni problem is a "scale" issue. I've tried it on a computer with only a few hundred emails to index; it worked like magic. On my real computer, with tens of thousands of emails in Outlook .PST files spanning the last decade, it broke down. (In its current version, Xobni does not allow you to choose which .PSTs you want it to handle; it tackles everything it finds. I understand that this may change -- and that other speed and scaling improvements are on their way.) This would explain why some people who've written in are so happy with it -- they don't have that many stored emails -- while others share my exact complaint.

An alternative to check out: the non-touted Lookeen, from a tiny little firm in Germany. The searches it runs are extremely fast, and it imposes no detectable burden on the computer's overall speed. It lets you choose which .PST files you want to include or omit -- though you might as well include everything, since it seems to handle a > 100,000-item index about as fast as a small one. Fourteen-day free trial available; after that, $39.80. Worth a look -- as is, of course, the long-time champ of very fast, very scalable PC search engines, X1.

(For those joining us late: the reason to bother with any of these is that the built-in Outlook search system is so clumsy and slow.)

May 24, 2008

The next three points about MacBook Air

As promised recently, the ongoing MacAir report will unfold in compact, digestible three-point installments. (Index to previous installments here.) Today's three points:

1) Is the MacAir suitable as your "real" computer? No.

OK: that's a spoiled-sounding thing to say. What I mean is that this machine is optimized for ease, convenience, and elegance as a portable computer, at the expense of features that would make it better for day-in, day-out stuck at the office use.

Most obvious illustration: this is one of the very few modern computers with no CD/DVD drive at all. (Unlike its closest PC counterpart, the new Lenovo ThinkPad X300.) You can work around that with a convenient utility to read from another machine's DVD drive, over a network -- but that means you have to have another machine. Similarly: you can work around the absence of an Ethernet port (with a separate dongle), and the presence of only one USB port, and the absence of a microphone jack. But they are workarounds, and there is no getting around the limit on the hard drive, which holds a maximum of 80GB. Not a huge amount, by today's desktop computer standards.

The MacAir remains elegant and beautiful; it has stood up well to travel (protected by this neoprene sleeve); I have no complaints about fit or finish or any other mechanical feature. But just as some resort properties are suitable mainly for those who can consider them "second homes," this is suitable mainly for people who can consider it a second computer. Though a nice one....


2) What about that battery life?

Continue reading "The next three points about MacBook Air" »

May 23, 2008

More on Cisco and the Great Firewall

Via Wired.com two days ago, an astonishing and apparently legit internal document from Cisco back in 2002, when it was preparing to sell the Chinese government the routers that were initially necessary to make the "Great Firewall" system of internet censorship work. (My Atlantic article on how the Firewall works here; also, followup interviews with Network World and TheAtlantic.com. For the record, the official name for the firewall and related systems is not the Great Firewall but the "Golden Shield" project.)

The "To Be Sure" section:
- Cisco has always claimed, and this document supports, that it didn't tailor any of its products particularly to the Chinese government's needs. Its normal product just happened to be what the government wanted;

- Whatever Cisco did or did not do six years ago, China no longer needs any outsider's help to make the system go. As I point out in my article, China's own companies, notably Huawei, can provide everything the government requires;

- There was never very much money involved. (According to Wired, $100,000 - could it really have been so little???);

- A Cisco official told Wired that he was "appalled" and "disappointed" at what the document showed.

Still: pages 48-58 of this PDF presentation seem to remove any doubt that Cisco knew, at the time, exactly what China had in mind with the "Golden Shield" program -- and viewed it as a great business opportunity.

May 19, 2008

Technology, not politics

Andrew Sullivan asks in his blog a question several readers have asked me (as well as him) directly: Why is his part of the Atlantic blog empire blocked by the Great Firewall of China, while the rest of the Atlantic's site, archives, photos, comments, etc is not?

I love the idea that discerning Communist cadres in Beijing have pored over and parsed everything in the magazine and determined that Andrew's posts are in some basic way more threatening to the regime's long-term legitimacy -- they're betting on Hillary? -- than anything else the magazine serves up. Alas, there's a prosaic and purely mechanical explanation.

For legacy reasons -- ie, his long pre-Atlantic blog existence -- Andrew's blog is hosted on an different system from everything else displayed on TheAtlantic.com. The system Andrew uses is one of several that are subject to blanket black-outs by the Great Firewall; the one that hosts the rest of the magazine is not. Andrew, come join us on the new system! Andrew's aspiring readers in China: try a VPN!

I think of the following episode when considering the how and why of Chinese press-control policy: A few months ago I ran into a man who was operating a fairly daring museum, which had many relics from the Cultural Revolution. I asked him whether the government was giving him trouble. "The government is busy," he said. Saves time just to turn whole web domains on and off.

May 15, 2008

My three computers (MacBook Air saga, cont..)

Three months into my use and ownership of both a MacBook Air and a Mac Mini, and nearly 30 years into my use and ownership of computers in the CP/M -> DOS -> Windows lineage, I keep waiting for the moment to give a "complete" and panoramic view of the pluses and minuses of each approach.

That moment will never come. So I will resume the piecemeal descriptions offered before (here and in previous installments).

For reference: my three-working-computer setup here at Beijing HQ, in a posed but not entirely unrepresentative configuration. On the left: venerable Thinkpad T60 running Vista and a zillion Windows-style programs. On the right: the MacBook Air in all its svelteness. In between, a Mac Mini, connected to a big flat-panel display and a Mac-style aluminum keyboard.

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_5373.jpg

I still use all of them, through day by day the trend is, ratchet-like, in the Mac direction. I wouldn't be embarrassed to have a multi-system life for quite a while ahead, since each has its strengths --and since I don't regard this as a religious or cultural all-or-nothing decision. As soon as I even think about trying to present the ins and outs of each system, I get nervous about what a long chore that would be. (Also, I know that David Alison's excellent blog has over the last few months chronicled in exquisite detail every shift, surprise, irritation, how-to, and satisfaction he has gone through during his switch to the Mac.)

So I'll make this manageable by doling out three or four points per post, which cumulatively may someday represent the complete Mac/PC almanac so many people dream of.

Today's three points:

Continue reading "My three computers (MacBook Air saga, cont..)" »

May 13, 2008

Great Firewall slideshow

Yesterday I mentioned that Network World had run a Q&A (with me) about how the Great Firewall of China does and doesn't work. Just now they've put up a nice conceptual slide show on "How the Chinese Internet is Different from Yours," here. Worth a look, and includes at least one thing I didn't know before.

May 12, 2008

Interview about Great Firewall in Network World

In the new issue of the tech journal Network World, I have this Q-and-A, with Carolyn Duffy Marsan, about the workings, weaknesses, and evolution of China's "Great Firewall," expanding on this article in the Atlantic two months back.

May 9, 2008

New, "official" GTD blog site

Two or three years ago, David Allen, father of the "Getting Things Done"/GTD approach to life, started a personal blog. He kept it up for a couple of months and then, no doubt realizing that this kind of daily fritter was at odds with his larger message about sensible use of your time, put it to sleep. (My 2004 Atlantic article about David Allen here; recent item about GTD-type software here.)

In the absence of blog-world messages from The Man himself, many other GTD-related blogs have continued to spring up. That's all to the good -- but a few weeks ago Allen and his team launched their own blog, straight from GTD Central. It is called GTDTimes and is worth checking out.

May 7, 2008

Nerds only: pulling the plug on Xobni

I mentioned two days ago that I'd liked the idea of the spiffy Outlook-indexer Xobni, but that when I'd tried a beta version in January it had slowed my PC to a point of paralysis.

The new release has been getting a lot of buzz, so I thought I'd try it again.

No dice. After two days of torpor I have just taken it off the machine. Made the already-glacial startup process of Outlook (under Vista) almost interminable. Used so many CPUs and -- especially -- so much memory that the computer wasn't good for anything else. Could just be me. Could just be my computer. Could be the evil Vista (on the computer where I installed Xobni). Could be entirely different for you. Just reporting my experience.

And maybe it's not just me. When you uninstall Xobni, it asks you why. The choices:

"Please tell us why you uninstalled so we can improve:
" 1. I wasn't using it.
" 2. It used too many computer resources
" 3. Outlook froze during normal operation
" 4. It made Outlook startup too slow.
" 5. Sidebar disappeared or stopped loading
" 6. It slowed down my Outlook.
" 7. I just temporarily uninstalled and will reinstall.
" 8. It did not index my mail properly
" 9. Outlook crashed"

I checked 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 9. But when they have a new version...

May 5, 2008

Nerds only: Giving Xobni another try (Updated)

Back in January I tried the beta version of Xobni*-- a new system for indexing and arraying your email within Outlook that is now getting a lot of attention, thanks to a rave in the NYT yesterday. (Or, "this morning," US time.)

In the beta version, I found it so incredibly CPU-intensive and greedy for system resources that it brought my PC (ThinkPad T60, 2Gb RAM, 4GB "ReadyBoost" RAM supplement) nearly to a halt. True, this ThinkPad was running the hated Windows Vista at the time, so it was looking for any excuse to halt. And true, I was asking it to index many GBs worth of old Outlook .PST files. But I unloaded Xobni, thinking: wouldn't it be nice if this actually worked.

Several friends say that the new version works better. We'll see. And this note is also a teaser for the omnibus, final MacAir / MacMini / ThinkPad compare-and-contrast exercise later this week.

UPDATE: Xobni still breaks my T60 laptop. Consumes so many CPU cycles and memory that everything else stops. Will un-install, reinstall, and try one more time.

* Xobni's name has the same etymology as that of Shanghai's beloved local beer, REEB. Reeb is of course "beer" spelled backward, and...

May 4, 2008

Real-time report: Olympic ticket-ordering system

There are various ways in which China will be tested to see if it is "ready" to host the Olympics. For instance:
- buildings, venues, stadiums -- these are well underway, they look impressive from the outside, and everyone seems to assume they'll be great;
- physical infrastructure: the new terminal at Beijing's airport has just opened, countless subway stops are scheduled to open in time for the games, I would imagine that this has been well-planned and will work out;
- social infrastructure: posters appear every day reminding people to spit less, stand in line more, be gracious hosts, etc. There's a big push that seems to have a willing spirit behind it. Over the months I have encountered exactly one Beijing taxi driver who knew more English than I know Chinese, but a big effort in teaching taxicab English is reportedly underway. And all subway lines have signs and announcements in English as well as Chinese.
- natural environment: here's hoping!

Then there is the general and hard-to-pin down question of simply handling the Olympic-scale volume -- for traffic, crowd control, whatever. One proxy is the system for ordering Olympic tickets. Residents of China (foreign and Chinese) had their third opportunity to order tickets starting at 9am China time today -- 45 minutes ago as I write. My wife and I are trying to order some tickets to the rowing events, where (a) huge numbers of tickets are available, and (b) we have some friends involved in the competition. After the jump, a real-time chronicle of how it's going.

(Update: summary of chronicle below is that two and a half hours after the experiment began, the transaction failed and the web site invited me to try again from the start. Five hours after that, at the end of its first business day of operation, the system still wasn't working. Obviously the ticket system is overwhelmed by the volume of traffic coming at it all at once. But that brings us back to the original question about being ready to handle the predictably huge, surge-style peaks of Olympic-related volume. We'll see...)

Extra-final update: Success! At 6:45pm China time, only nine hours and forty-five minutes after first logging on, I landed three bargain seats for the rowing heats, @ 20RMB ($2.85 -- the 30RMB seats must have been sold out). End of the chronicle.
-----------------

Continue reading "Real-time report: Olympic ticket-ordering system" »

May 3, 2008

Shorter version of preceding "Outlook flaw" post

Based on all available feedback, the problem is not that I'm missing some tweak or setting in Outlook. It's that the program has a basic design flaw in the way it handles "all day events" -- for instance, St. Patrick's Day occurring on March 17.

Apparently Outlook provides no way to assign that event to the entire day itself. It is designed to assign it to a 24-hour span, so whenever you change time zones, you're screwed. The 24 hours that had run midnight-to-midnight now go 3am-to-3am. This is a design decision worthy of Clippy in its user-unfriendliness.

Oh well. Now at least I know. But please, Microsoft folk, can't you do better than this?

UPDATE: Here's what is really objectionable about Outlook's approach. The system's display suggests that there IS a difference between an "all-day appointment," like St. Patrick's Day being on March 17, and a 24-hour appointment running, say, 1am to 1am. The all-day event displays as a single line on your calendar; the 24-hour appointment spreads across every one of the hours included. But in their underlying architecture, it appears that there is no difference at all. An "all-day" event is just another 24-hour span, which happens to display as a single line if you're in the same time zone you were when you created it. To the best of my knowledge, this is different from how, for instance, Google Calendar handles the issue: GC treats "all-day" events as conceptually separate from other 24-hour appointments. The Outlook design decision seems unwise to me, because of the frustrations it creates. But its display decision goes beyond being unwise to being outright deceptive, since it suggests a distinction that the program itself does not support. (It would be as if Word, in certain conditions, displayed a passage in italics, when really the words were all stored as plain text.) Can't someone on the Office team do better than this?

May 2, 2008

Nerds only: There has to be a fix for this flaw in Outlook, right???? (Updated)

Here is something that has driven me crazy about Outlook for the ten-plus years I've used it. I can't really believe it's insoluble, because that would mean that the program has a more glaringly troublesome defect than others we know about. But I haven't found the solution -- and I'll offer the traditional bonus of a year's subscription to the Atlantic to the first person who can tell me the answer, which I'll share. (Sincerity alert: these are actual paid-out-of-my-pocket bonuses, not company freebies.)

The problem involves Outlook's handling of time zones.

Continue reading "Nerds only: There has to be a fix for this flaw in Outlook, right???? (Updated)" »

Bright side #5: interesting GTD software, including for Mac

I am a long-standing devotee of the David Allen "Getting Things Done" (GTD) approach to life, as I first described in this Atlantic article about him four years ago. We've become friends and stayed in touch since then too, which at least for me has been very enjoyable. Plus, since long before the Atlantic wrote about him he has been a loyal subscriber!

The GTD Way mainly involves habits of mind and action, but it also places a lot of emphasis on having the right tools, gizmos, and gimmicks to support those habits. Over the years I've used a variety of software to set up GTD-based systems on my computer. Ones I've liked include Results Manager and Chandler. The one I keep coming back to for my own purposes, more than a dozen years after I started using it, is the idiosyncratic but powerful Zoot. Zoot is PC-only, and for that matter text-only (no graphics etc), but it runs flawlessly on a Mac under VMWare Fusion.

Here are three more to bear in mind, with different strengths and idiosyncracies of their own:

Continue reading "Bright side #5: interesting GTD software, including for Mac" »

April 30, 2008

"Clippy" update -- now, with organizational anthropology!

As mentioned yesterday, my personal crusade during my 6-month spell as a Microsoft Word team member, waged from my stronghold in Building 17 on the main "campus" in Redmond, was an effort to get "Clippy" removed from Word and other programs.

There's an aspect to the struggle that suggests that big organizations anywhere share certain traits, whether their product is "national security" (the Pentagon), a "harmonious society" (the Chinese Communist Party), or "great software" (Microsoft). One such trait is the effort of people up and down a bureaucratic hierarchy to guess at what the boss would "really" like, and do that -- even if the boss has never said so, and even if it's might not be what the boss actually has in mind.

Continue reading ""Clippy" update -- now, with organizational anthropology!" »

April 27, 2008

Looking on the bright side #2: Offline Google Docs

As a reminder: The big plus of cloud computing is that you can get to your information from any computer any place, as long as you have an internet connection. The big minus is that you can't do much of anything if you're not on the internet. For instance: I conduct most of my email life through a variety of Gmail accounts. But unless I download and store the messages on Outlook (or Thunderbird or Mac Mail or something else), I can't read or answer them when I'm on a plane, visiting an office building, or generally wondering how I will ever dig out of the email hole I have created for myself in a month away from the computer.

Six weeks ago, Google introduced one useful tool for dealing with this "what about when I'm offline?" problem. This was an unobtrusive, elegant, and so far (for me) bulletproof way of keeping an online Google Calendar synchronized with a calendar file in Microsoft Outlook. I find this surprisingly useful. I can enter -- or change, or delete -- a datebook item either at my "real" computer, when using Outlook, or on the Google calendar if I'm using someone else's machine, in full confidence that the changes will ripple through all versions of my calendar information. Including the version I can get from any mobile phone via SMS if i send a text message asking for details on the next place I'm supposed to go or number I'm supposed to call.

Over the last four weeks, Google has been slowly rolling out another tool that potentially can make cloud-computing more usable. This is the "Offline" version of Google Docs, which in turn relies on a utility called Google Gears.

It works this way:

Continue reading "Looking on the bright side #2: Offline Google Docs" »

March 31, 2008

Recent items about Chinese info-control, #4

A new report from the Pew Internet Project indicates that most internet users in China accept the idea that material on web sites should be monitored and controlled -- and that the government should do the controlling. For instance:

Most readers of the Western press are aware of efforts by the Chinese government to control what its people can read and discuss online. Outside observers and human-rights groups monitor and criticize the government's actions and publicize the techniques through which technologically savvy Chinese internet users can work around restrictions. Some analysts also track and interpret the government's subtler shifts in balance that seek to encourage internet development while still exercising control over it...
[O]ther evidence suggests that many Chinese citizens do not share Western views of the internet. The survey findings discussed here, drawn from a broad-based sample of urban Chinese internet users and non-users alike, indicate a degree of comfort and even approval of the notion that the government authorities should control and manage the content available on the internet.

The report goes on to say that 84 percent of Chinese internet users felt content should be controlled, and about the same number approved of the government's doing so. It also explores some of the reasons behind an attitude that confounds many American expectations about what the spread of the internet "should" mean. The discussion is based on a nationwide survey funded by the Markle Foundation and conducted by a respected Chinese social scientist named Guo Liang. It is very much worth reading, in connection with ongoing stories about mainstream Chinese views of news from Tibet and of criticism on that and other subjects from overseas.

I've been interested in these same issues and explored some of them in a recent article on how the China's Great Firewall works. I should probably mention at this point that the China office of the Pew Internet Project is a little desk in our bedroom, about ten feet away from the Atlantic's China bureau, and that the author of this report, Deborah Fallows, is my wife.

March 24, 2008

Nerds only: Firefox 3 beta is available

A relatively stable and very attractive beta version of Firefox 3 has been around for a week or two. Windows, Mac, and Linux versions, in most languages you can think of, available free here.

It is a beta -- in fact, beta 4 -- so it has some rough edges. For me the main one is that some Firefox plug-ins I use all the time aren't yet compatible with this version. (Biggest stopper for me: Chinese Perapera-kun, for help reading Chinese characters on line.*) But it has a variety of tricks to make it run faster, and use less memory, than Firefox 2 does. Also, you can keep both 2 and 3 on your machine and use them alternately, though there can be slight start-up delays when you load one after using the other. I switch back to 2 only when I want to use that Chinese plug-in.

F3 B4 has many other nice functional and stylistic improvements, especially in managing downloads and bookmarks and in auto-completing addresses you have typed before. Hasn't crashed or hung for me on either a Mac or PC... yet. Take a look.

(*Update: This wonderful tip from Lifehacker explains how to get plug-ins like Perapera-kun to run under the new beta. It worked! As the Lifehacker post explains, this is in the realm of do-it-yourself surgery and not worth trying if you're squeamish. But it took less than a minute, and it means I can run this new beta version all the time now.)

March 17, 2008

Another step toward the online "cloud computing" life

Web-based computing has these advantages: It doesn't matter what kind of computer you use. Mac, Windows, Linux, Ubuntu -- they're all the same. It doesn't matter whose computer you're using, or where. You don't have to drag hard drives or USB sticks or even computers around with you, or copy files between a desktop and a laptop machine to keep them up to date. You just sit down wherever you get a web connection and dig in. Everything you need is stored in the internet "cloud."

(For the Atlantic's premonition of such cloud computing 12 years ago, check here, and after the jump.)

Web-based computing has a small disadvantage: working with an online program like, say, Writely (now Google Docs) is slower than using one based on your own machine, since info must constantly go back and forth from a remote server.

It also has a huge disadvantage: when you're off line, you're out of luck. You can't get at your web-based mail, you can't get at your online calendar or contact list or documents, you can't do very much. Traveling in China, I spend a lot of time off-line, so for me this is a deal-breaker.

All of which is why, to me, the news that Google Calendar will sync with Microsoft Outlook is big news indeed.

Continue reading "Another step toward the online "cloud computing" life" »

March 15, 2008

Tibet info-flow update

As of Saturday night, March 15, China time, in Beijing:

- The screen goes black on CNN one second after any report about the situation in Lhasa begins;

- Similar coverage on BBC World TV has, oddly, come through unmolested -- though BBC has often been blacked out in the past. This evening I saw footage on BBC of riots in Lhasa, cars being burned, accusations of attacks on monks, and so on;

- CCTV coverage (that's state-run China Central TV) has included at least one brief mention we saw, similar to those in the papers previously discussed here, saying that small groups of hooligans have attacked soldiers in Lhasa but that things are under control.

- Just about every blog, web site, or online news source I've tried for info about Tibet has been blocked by the Great Firewall, using one of the techniques I discussed in this article. The URLs for those sites -- say, NYTimes.com -- aren't permanently black-listed or blocked. But when the GFW's filtering system sees troublesome words in the actual content of the page you're reading -- and let's assume the words Tibet, Lhasa, and Dalai Lama now all qualify -- it breaks the connection and interrupts all attempts to go back to the site for certain period of time. So far, my VPN has gotten me around this barrier. But, as discussed in the article, avoiding the Great Firewall is enough of a chore and an expense that most Chinese citizens don't bother. I imagine some people in Tibet are bothering now.

March 6, 2008

Nerds only: new version of Zoot goes up

It was more than ten years ago that I first praised in print the quirky little info-management program called Zoot. Looking at that article from August, 1997 is a reminder of how much has changed since then -- it was written before the internet boom, before the internet bust, when the "new" operating systems were Windows95 and WindowsNT, when neither Google nor Web 2.0 nor the iPod had been heard of, and when Apple was at such a low ebb that it wasn't clear that the Macintosh as a PC-alternative would survive.

The one thing that has been constant in my computing life since then is that I have used this same little program to collect and organize information for everything I write. The program has been honed over those years by one Tom Davis -- a 31-year old lone programmer when I wrote about him, a still jaunty looking lone programmer now. (Before moving to China, I went to Boca Raton, Florida, near where he lives, and met him for the first time. Here he is at the Boca Raton airport, pointing at the Z, as in Zoot, on the tail of the Cirrus SR-20 that I owned then and had flown to Florida.)

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/DavisCirrus.jpg

Continue reading "Nerds only: new version of Zoot goes up" »

MacBook Air #5: the Air comes home

Beijing Metro line #1. Guomao station, March 6 2008. Illuminated sign roughly 3' x 8':
http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_5214.jpg


The MacBook Air, made in China (like virtually all other laptops and notebooks), comes back to its birthplace.

Two extra Air-related points:

Continue reading "MacBook Air #5: the Air comes home" »

March 5, 2008

Ah! Why didn't I think of that? (Chinese internet dept)

The internet these last few days in Beijing has been like molasses. Pages that take one minute or more to load. Many pages that time out, give up, and won't load at all. As I mention in my article on China's Great Firewall in the current issue of the Atlantic, one reason internet censorship is so effective in China is that you're never quite sure why you can't find the sites you're looking for:

Andrew Lih points out that other countries that also censor Internet content—Singapore, for instance, or the United Arab Emirates—provide explanations whenever they do so. Someone who clicks on a pornographic or “anti-Islamic” site in the U.A.E. gets the following message, in Arabic and English: “We apologize the site you are attempting to visit has been blocked due to its content being inconsistent with the religious, cultural, political, and moral values of the United Arab Emirates.” In China, the connection just times out. Is it your computer’s problem? The firewall? Or maybe your local Internet provider, which has decided to do some filtering on its own? You don’t know. “The unpredictability of the firewall actually makes it more effective,” another Chinese software engineer told me. “It becomes much harder to know what the system is looking for, and you always have to be on guard.”

And I haven't known what was going on.

Continue reading "Ah! Why didn't I think of that? (Chinese internet dept)" »

February 29, 2008

The MacBook Air chronicles #4: success with VMWare

As reported a few days ago, my new MacBook Air -- while undeniably svelte and beautiful, and while having surprisingly good battery life, and while generally performing in much snappier fashion than my Vista laptop -- was giving me trouble in one big way. I had been trying to install either VMWare Fusion or Parallels, the two systems that let you run Windows programs (on an Intel-powered Mac) side by side with Mac OS X. Or that's what the two programs are supposed to do. I couldn't get either of them actually to start up a session of Windows XP. (Was I going to load Vista? Let's be serious.)

Problem now solved! And it proved not to have been VMWare's fault. I don't know about Parallels -- even though I bought that program for full $80 retail at the Apple store in New York last month (it being the only one available), I never heard back on my requests to its tech support line. But VMWare, which I downloaded as a free 30-day trial product, did reply and gave me the right answer. (Details below.*) I will with relatively good cheer pony up my $80 to register the product -- or $50, after a $30 rebate for previous purchasers of the rival Parallels.

MacBook Air running WinXP, under VMWare, with "dock" of Mac program icons at the bottom:
http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_5172.jpg

Continue reading "The MacBook Air chronicles #4: success with VMWare" »

February 23, 2008

MacBook Air #3: Some performance comparisons

Eventually we'll get to whatever philosophical differences separate computing on the fancy new MacBook Air ultra-light machine from computing on a classy high-end ThinkPad T60 running Vista with its latest updates. (Hint: differences less profound and sweeping than many people assume.)

Also, some of the practicalities involved in shifting the center-of-gravity of your work from one platform to another. (Hint #1: If you have a lot, lot, lot of info stored in Microsoft Outlook .PST files, as I do, a full shift is not as easy as you've been told. Hint #2: At least for me, neither VMWare Fusion nor Parallels, the two programs that let Intel-powered Macs run Windows programs, has been all that simple to configure and get running -- though I remain hopeful that I'll get one of them to work!)

Let's talk today just about numbers: ones that have gotten my attention. They involve the lost-time overhead a computer imposes on you while you wait for it to work. What I've found:

Putting the computer to 'sleep' (so you can save battery power when you step away for a while). Time from issuing command till end of disk activity and screen display, three trials:
Thinkpad T60 / Vista: 12 seconds, 13 seconds, 15 seconds, average about 13 seconds. I am excluding as an anomaly the first time I ran this test, which took 80 seconds.
MacBook Air / Leopard: 3 seconds, 2 seconds, 3 seconds, average about 3 seconds.

Continue reading "MacBook Air #3: Some performance comparisons" »

February 20, 2008

MacBook Air #2: batteries etc

I’ve only just now begun installing “real” software on my newly acquired MacBook Air.* So until now, I’ve been using the Air exclusively for online activity – and haven’t been giving it the full long-airplane-flight test to see how much time it takes to run the battery down while doing real work.

Instead, I’ve done indirect tests, like setting the Air up to play nonstop streaming audio from internet radio broadcasts while running on battery power. That way, I know that it’s continually drawing power to work the WiFi and run the speaker (yes, the speaker -- just one, and not that good). The screen, though, self-dims in a way it wouldn’t if I were sitting there typing.

Still: this has been enough to give an impression. Battery life on this machine seems “pretty good,” and the time it takes to recharge the battery is not bad at all.

Continue reading "MacBook Air #2: batteries etc" »

February 19, 2008

'Great Firewall' article now online

Two week ago I mentioned that the March issue of the Atlantic -- by that point snugly in subscribers' hands! -- would include my article on how the Great Firewall of China actually works. That article is now online, here. So is the entire issue, which is full of great stuff.

Also, my interview about the article and the general China-tech scene is online here. It was conducted by the Atlantic's estimable Abby Cutler -- as the last thing she did on our staff before leaving to begin medical training. Applying the healing touch in different venues, is the way we like to think about it at the magazine.

February 15, 2008

MacBook Air: first of a series

I didn't expect to return from my latest trip to the U.S. with a brand-new MacBook Air in my hand, but for various surprising reasons that's what I brought back.*

I have not given it a full workout yet, and the reason is related to one of the quirks of this machine: it has no CD/DVD reader and is designed to install software wirelessly, either from the Internet or via a connection to another Mac or PC. I have not yet gone through the process of installing the programs I'd like to use on it, so all I've done with it is work online. Collect email, check out the news, and, yes, compose and post this message.

More reactions to come later, about the aspects of this machine that have raised most questions. How good is the battery, really -- considering that unlike most laptops, but like iPods etc, you can't change it yourself or bring a second to swap in during a plane flight? Is its 80GB hard disk big enough for modern computing life? How well does its wifi-only approach actually work, given the absence of a CD drive and an Ethernet port? Will the remote installation process let me put Parallels or VMWare on the system, so I can run the Windows programs I really care about? All this, as I say, for another day.

For today, an aesthetic and emotional reaction: This is an astonishingly successful work of industrial design. Even industrial art. Its case is very small and thin, and seems even smaller and thinner. It is very light, and seems lighter than it is. (Maybe adrenaline rush to the arm muscles?) By the specs, the processor is not tremendously fast, but the computer feels agile and responsive -- all the more so in contrast to my Vista ThinkPad. The screen is bright and big (maybe related to battery life?), and the keyboard is full-sized and convenient. It is as beautiful a piece of machinery as I have seen in a long time.

Later: how it works when I'm trying to do something more than reach web sites. Maybe the shock of aesthetic appreciation will have worn off -- somewhat -- by then.

__
* To spell it out: these reasons do not include any baksheesh, "demo copies," or other favortistic efforts by Apple or other companies.

I know I'm tempting fate by even mentioning this, but...

The latest set of patches and updates for Windows Vista, mentioned recently, really do appear to make the system noticeably faster and more responsive.

In addition to eliminating (so far) the chronic previous crashes when my laptop went into or out of hibernation, they seem to have reduced another big annoyance: the interminable periods when the computer appeared simply to be paralyzed -- "it's thinking," is the more charitable way my wife once put it -- and would not respond to keystrokes or commands. In real time these could last 30 or 40 seconds, which seemed like centuries. Such brain-dead spells -- for a fast computer with a lot of RAM -- have been cut way down.

Similarly: the new version of Lenovo's Rescue and Recovery utility (available through the ThinkVantage Update software that comes on new ThinkPads -- more info here) is a big improvement. This software makes frequent backups of everything on your computer, which are obviously reassuring to have. But its original version was a significant culprit in my first big problem with Vista on a ThinkPad -- that it gobbled up every bit of available disk space. The latest release works faster, takes less disk space, and is easier to use.

The Vista patches will be part of the "Service Pack 1" that is circulating informally and is supposed to be officially released soon. New ThinkPads presumably come with the latest Lenovo utilities installed. If my first exposure to Vista and the Lenovo utilities had been to this new, improved incarnation -- and I hadn't had the last year of hatred-inducing frustration behind me -- my impression would have been much more positive, and I would now own fewer Macs. I suppose I've merely re-proved the principle that wiser souls discovered long ago. Never buy or use a new release of Windows, or perhaps of any major system software, until it's been on the market at least a year and has gone through its first "Service Pack." Live and learn.

February 13, 2008

Nerds only: a Vista update

The household census of computers here at Beijing HQ now includes:

- 2 WinXP laptops (one ThinkPad T40, one Compaq. This last is my wife's; Stoic that she is, she makes do with one.)

- 3 Macs (Mini, iBook, and the unbelievably glamorous MacBook Air, subject for another time)

- 1 Vista laptop (ThinkPad T60; used to be two Vistas, until I "downgraded" the T40 back to XP)

Each has its place in the great and intricate division of local labor. The Vista machine is partly a test bed to see how things are developing in Vista land. I have been making a list of tweaks and improvements to mention, but here is one that immediately caught my eye:

The latest WindowsUpdate for Vista (via WindowsUpdate on the Start menu -- important patches usually come out on the second Tuesday of each month), includes #943899, "an update that improves the performance, responsiveness, and reliability of Windows Vista." As if there might be any room for improvement in those realms.... The good news is that this patch is aimed at one of the most egregious (for me) Vista problems: its tendency to crash, hang, or churn for minutes on end when going in or out of hibernation. In specific the welcome news is:

This update improves performance, responsiveness, and reliability of Windows Vista in various scenarios. This update resolves the following issues on a Windows Vista-based computer:

• You receive a "Stop 0x000000A0" error when you try to switch the computer to the hibernate state.

• You receive a "Stop 0x0000009f" error when you switch the computer to the hibernate state or to the standby state. Or, you receive this Stop error when you resume the computer from the hibernate state or from the standby state. This problem occurs on a computer that has a wireless network connection.

• The disk does not spin down after a specified time of inactivity.

Well, those are the exact problems I often have. If this truly "resolves" the issue, then Huzzah. We will see. If you have Vista on a laptop, check it out.

February 9, 2008

News of the future: Internet, Olympics, Great Firewall

I believe that the Atlantic's March 2008 issue is already in subscribers' hands. The link on our main web site will be available in a little while. (Another illustration of the "Better than Free" principle laid out by Kevin Kelly!)

In the new issue I have an article about the "Great Firewall of China" -- the government's means of regulating the internet, or trying to. When that article comes out, you'll see why I was so interested in this recent AFP/Yahoo news story, about the government's deliberations over what to do with the GFW when Beijing is crawling with foreigners during the Olympic games. Basically: I have some inside details that complement what the Olympic organizers are now saying in public. Stay tuned.

(Thanks to Daniel Lippman for tip.)

February 3, 2008

Correct link for "Better than Free" essay by Kevin Kelly

The previous item, about how organizations might be able to sell the same information they are giving away via the internet, had the wrong link to Kevin Kelly's valuable "Better than Free" essay. Here is the right link -- also now fixed in original item.

February 2, 2008

A very good essay about the economics of "free" info on the internet

(Updated to fix bad link.)
The Atlantic -- which was early to the idea of making its content available free on the internet, then went to a subscriber-only model, and now has come back -- is one of many publications wrestling with the question of how, exactly, you sell something you are simultaneously giving away.

One of the best accounts I've seen of why our current approach might make sense -- and more generally, of why individuals and organizations may still be able to do well selling information they're also offering free -- is this one, from Kevin Kelly, on his "The Technium" blog. His analysis does ring true to me, and it clarifies some possibilities I've heard discussed mainly in hazy terms.

Everyone knows that the world demand for sophisticated, rapid, reliable information and analysis can only keep rising -- and everyone also knows that the traditional models of paying for such information are in trouble, with newspapers being the most obvious case. Ten years from now, or twenty, or some time, a new way of paying for the information will have evolved. I found this essay useful in pointing toward some potential paths of evolution.

(Thanks to Paul Holbrook, of the Zoot users' forum on Yahoo, for this tip.)

January 21, 2008

Mitch Kapor on spreadsheets, Magellan, etc

Yesterday, a NYT tech column suggested that Mitch Kapor of Lotus was responsible for the fundamental innovation of the spreadsheet.

Today I said, quoting Dottie Hall, that actually Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston had invented the spreadsheet, with VisiCalc for the Apple II -- but Kapor had brought it to the PC world with Lotus 1-2-3.

Kapor writes to say that's wrong too!

As long as we're beating a dead frog, let me add my two Linden dollars*: Bill Gross was responsible for Lotus Magellan, not me. I had nothing to do with it.
Also, "and while he (me, that is) can be credited with introducing the spreadsheet for the PC," is not true either. Both VisiCalc and MultiPlan were available when the IBM PC shipped in October 1981. 1-2-3 didn't hit the market until January 1983.

As for Bill Gross: I've written a whole string of articles lauding him for the programs he has created. The only one of these articles I can find online right now is this. from my own days as a NYT tech columnist.** Gross was also the force behind a program I have praised so often I should be on its payroll, X1. (To spell it out: I'm not, and I paid for my copy of X1.) I had assumed that as Kapor was institutionally responsible for Lotus Magellan, but he should know.

And as for spreadsheet genealogy, I have already received so many accounts of how this happened that I have decided to quote only Kapor's for the moment, since the rest have so many variations on points large and small.

____
* For those embarrassed to ask: Linden dollars are the currency of Second Life.

** Back in my day as NYT tech columnist, the paper ran a correction when I made a mistake. I'm just saying.....

For the record, two (interesting!) boiled-frog updates

Both referring to yesterday's shock-horror revelation that the NYT, Oxford Univ, and a skilled tech writer had combined to repeat a cruel bit of misinformation.

1) My friend Dottie Hall, a veteran of Microsoft, Symantec, Eclipse Aviation, and other ventures, points out in her blog that the boiled frog story was not the only canard in the NYT article. The column, by G. Paschal Zachary, also said this:

Businesses crave a sweet spot: where the line is drawn in favor of the innovator. The late Akio Morita, founder of Sony, talked about satisfying appetites that people didn’t even know they had. He achieved such a feat with the Sony Walkman, the music player introduced in 1979. While at the Lotus Development Corporation, [Mitch] Kapor created another such “killer app,” or application: the spreadsheet for the PC.

Mitch Kapor is a wonderful guy, creator of such truly innovative programs as Agenda and Magellan during his years at Lotus and in recent years hard at work on the innovative Chandler project. And while he can be credited with introducing the spreadsheet for the PC, namely Lotus 1-2-3, that was less a break through than the real innovation of creating the spreadsheet itself. All honor for this latter achievement lies (as Dottie Hall points out) with Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston, who invented VisiCalc for the Apple II.

2) Reader Gregory Sokoloff points out a version of the boiled-frog story that, if we called it boiled-salaryman, might actually be true. He lived in Japan when I did, in the late 1980s, and reports:

You may remember that the most common form of bath in homes was of a design not found in the West. The bath would first be filled with cold water, then a natural gas heater would be lit and the water would slowly circulate from the bath into the heater and then back into the bath, much like a heated swimming pool. The recirculation was achieved simply through convection without any pump, and thus the device was very, very quiet. Apparently, people commonly would get into their baths when the water was tepid, fall asleep, and then wake up with serious burns requiring treatment in a hospital. I don't know if there were deaths. Of course, only one who has lived in Japan can fully appreciate how sleepy and inebriated many Japanese are by the time they take a bath after rounds in the local bars (the best named one where I lived was the "Salaryman Daigaku" ["Salaryman University"]).
I may be repeating an urban myth here, but a good friend of mine their swore she witnessed the aftermath of such an incident.

So, consistent with my emphasis on the scientific approach to tall tales, I hereby request that henceforth people begin the cliched story thus: "Throw a salaryman into a boiling hot bath, and he'll scramble right out. But put a salaryman in a nice comfy tub, and....."

You really do learn something by reading the paper

And what I learned from today's New York Times is that tomorrow the Atlantic will remove the firewall that for years has applied to most articles in the print magazine and our very extensive archives.

Hmmm! The Atlantic, believe it or not, has been a serial innovator and pioneer in the web area. Back in the dimly-remembered mid-1990s it was one of the first non-tech magazines even to have a web site and to put much of its content online free. A few years ago it changed to the firewall / subscribers only model. Now, with the centrality of the web to the kinds of discussions we hope to provoke, this latest change, which should certainly continue the expansion of the site's influence and audience.

It will also do something that I think will be of even greater long-term importance:

The Atlantic Monthly, as we have pointed out oh, once or twice in the last while, is now 150 years old. In fact, working toward 151.

200711.jpg

There is a phenomenal amount of fascinating and historically important material in our archives from those 150+ years. Not all of it is available online. (If you have seen the bookcases full of back volumes, you know what a gigantic challenge the mere scanning and OCR-ing will be.) Some of the highlights have been collected by Robert Vare and Daniel Smith in their superb recent 150th Anniversary anthology.

But a lot of unexplored material is available, and searchable, in the archives, and this will be an important journalistic, academic, and historic resource. Once again, a new era begins.

(I no longer have to say, "Subscribers Only" about some articles. Still -- subscribe! The timeless story of media-and-technology is that as new "delivery vehicles" arrive, they create additional forms of receiving information; eliminate a few old forms, like the cuneiform tablet; but mainly expand the range of choices people have by leaving most old forms in place. Despite television, we still have radio; despite radio and television and the internet, we still have books; despite email we still have phone calls; and for quite a while despite the internet we will still have something physically like a book or magazine, just because there are so many times and places where it's the best way to see what you want to look at. Eg: On my latest 13-hour plane flight, some of passengers mainly used laptops or iPods. Virtually all had some kind of book or magazine. Magazine content, words and pictures alike, looks far far better in real magazines -- though the web version is indispensable.)

In any case, another new beginning as of tomorrow.

January 15, 2008

I maintain statesmanlike silence; the readers speak!

... about Mac, Vista, hibernation, and so on. Ongoing commentary on previous discussion after the jump.

Continue reading "I maintain statesmanlike silence; the readers speak!" »

January 13, 2008

Special one-time offer: Comments! Vista! Mac!

As promised, I am giving a rest to the whole question of Vista, the Mac, hibernation, blue-screen crashes, etc. We're phenomenally fortunate to have today's computers at all -- I remember the days of the TELEX machine and the suitcase-sized Compaqs and Kaypros -- and I forswear further whining. And to think back to the days before most software had "auto-save" or "recovery" features. Brrrrrr!

Unfortunately a lot of interesting e-mail arrived only after that promise kicked in. So after the jump, a few of the interesting addenda and responses. Anyone who would like to pursue the issue is invited to do so via Comments, enabled for this post only.* Anyone who is bored by this entire topic -- Sorry!

*Update: Never mind! The Movable Type editing screen I am looking at has the box for "Accept Comments" clicked Yes. But the actual post shows no Comments line. Oh well. The e-mails below are still interesting, and they will have to suffice.

Continue reading "Special one-time offer: Comments! Vista! Mac!" »

January 12, 2008

Let's let Bill Gates have the last word about Windows Vista

... as he did, in this widely-circulated but still fascinating and completely winning video clip.

I agree with my Atlantic colleague Ms. McArdle that computer operating systems should be a matter of practicality rather than ideology. (Although I prefer to think of myself as a pantheist, rather than an agnostic like her.) I've always had both Mac and Windows systems and have continually tried out others. It's a question of where your "real" work gets done, and that's what I'm reexamining to see how much of a PITA it would be to change..

And in response to one of many very interesting emails....

I noticed that both you and your friend both experienced long resume times from hibernate. There's good reason for that, which is that it has to read your complete memory state from disk. This is a very slow process, which is limited by hardware. I was wondering -- why don't you just use sleep/standby? My Thinkpad wakes up in about 1 second and is completely responsive. I always hear people complain about hibernate, but my thought is always -- why use it then?

I say: you're right. The Vista "sleep" command actually works very well. But it draws a little bit of current, and when you're really hoarding power or shutting down for a long time, "hibernation," which draws no current, would seem the better choice. EXCEPT for the very slow recovery time. In part that's is because a system like mine has to read 2GB worth of memory-state from the hard disk. But it's also ... something else, since even after the computer appears to have regained its previous state it takes an inexplicably long time before it will respond to any commands.

Oh well. As Bill Gates says above, Ask me after Microsoft has put out its next version of Windows. Until then, as with the Beijing air, I'll give this subject a rest!

January 11, 2008

A little less coyness on Mac-vs-Vista

As mentioned recently, ongoing struggles with Windows Vista, here in our Vista/XP/XP/Mac iBook two-person, four-laptop household, have led to me consider all alternatives. Now, the rest of the story:

Soberingly enough, I have used personal computers longer than several of my fellow Atlantic "Voices" have been alive. I got -- really, built -- my first computer in 1978. (Taste of days gone by: "The SOL-20 was probably the first PC to incorprate a keyboard and video with the machine.") It used an Intel 8080 chip, and as the Intel-PC-Windows paradigm has emerged, I've stuck to that course.

Through those years, I've considered switching tracks to the Mac world three times.

Continue reading "A little less coyness on Mac-vs-Vista" »

January 10, 2008

No political content! #1: Back to the Mac?

The message below is from my "friend" -- never met him, but corresponded for years -- Kenneth Rhee of Northern Kentucky University. We made contact long ago via a support forum for the nonpareil info-handling program Zoot*. Zoot is Windows-only, so Rhee, like me, has done his main work on PCs.

Recently he made The Change -- after wrestling with a new ThinkPad that came with Windows Vista pre-installed. This week Rhee submitted the following report on the the Zoot forum, plus some passages from a followup email to me:

I switched over to the Mac last year after getting a bit frustrated with Vista (I still run Vista in my Thinkpad on a rare occasion if I want to get "frustrated-little joke here but it seems to happen every time I use it these days).

My experience goes something like this. I wanted to use a few Mac programs and bought a MacBook thinking that I'll probably use it 10-15% of my time. After a month, I noticed that I was using my Mac 85-90% of the time, and having more fun using it rather than getting more frustrated fixing things or waiting for things to happen. So, I switched over completely and bought a new MacBook Pro with Leopard to replace my Thinkpad and haven't looked back.

Continue reading "No political content! #1: Back to the Mac?" »

December 14, 2007

More Yuletide cheer, software department

Might as well keep this coming, while Santa is preparing his lists and so on.

1) My choice for best-ever utility for indexing and searching hard drives on a PC, X1, has come out with a new release with numerous small but important improvements. Speed, stability, range of files it can index, etc. If you happen to be using Vista, the new release is also stable under Vista, as the old one wasn't.

I've often complimented X1 in the Atlantic's pages, but here's the sincerest sign of my regard: Officially you can get away without ever paying anything for X1. After your initial 30-day free trial expires, you just keep on with the unlicensed trial version, which gives you no tech support and has certain limitations but is better than most other indexers available. (Or, you can use the similar limited version offered free as Yahoo Desktop Search.) I've gotten by on the trial version for years. But now I have actually ponied up my $50 for a legit license to the "Professional Client" version. My official reason is that it does a few things, like indexing archived Outlook files, that the free version doesn't -- plus the tech support. My real reason is that I have used this product so often for so long that I feel I owe these people something. Check it out.

2) Chandler - where do I start? This is one of the great epics/dramas/melodramas of the last two decades of computer-dom. In part it is the fulfillment of Mitch Kapor's vision of creating the perfect tool for organizing the data you need for your daily life. He began this quest decades ago, with the creation of the sainted Lotus Agenda program when he was in charge of Lotus. (Part of that background here and here). In part it's a very demanding test of what kind of software can be developed on a non-commercial, purely open-source basis. It even has an Atlantic connection, since part of its vision is to realize the vision of Vannevar 'As We May Think' Bush, who in our pages laid out the principles of the internet and of information management more than 60 years ago. It's also just an engrossing story -- one told in the recent book Dreaming in Code, by Scott Rosenberg, which as its site shows I liked enough to blurb effusively.

Saying anything more about the Chandler saga would be too exhausting, except for this: a usable version now exists, even though it has only some of the features envisioned for the grand climax of the project. It is usable enough that I actually am using it. You can start here to find out more. Warning: at this point, it's still in the "mainly for tinkerers" stage. But it's very interesting, and is free.

Merry Christmas to all!

Also just in time for Christmas: Windows XP / SP3

As mentioned earlier, the good news for Windows Vista users is that Service Pack 1 is heaving into view. According to early word from Office Watch, it will be somewhat faster and more reliable.

The other news -- well, let's consider this good news too: Service Pack 3 for Windows XP is also in its beta stage, for official release some time next year. According to this recent report on CNET news.com, via reader Chet Shannon, the long-in-the-tooth Windows XP with its new SP3 is twice as fast (on several benchmark tests involving Microsoft Office functions) as Vista, even with its new SP1:

Vista, both with and without SP1, performed notably slower than XP with SP3 in the test, taking over 80 seconds to complete the test, compared to the beta SP3-enhanced XP's 35 seconds. Vista's performance with the service pack increased less than 2 percent compared to performance without SP1--much lower than XP's SP3 improvement of 10 percent.

More details about the test at CNET's site. I'll think of this as Happy Holiday news for XP users -- putting the XP into Xmas, perhaps.

December 13, 2007

Just in time for Christmas: some (apparently) positive Vista news!

I've mentioned before how much I value the Office Watch website / newsletter. It is basically sympathetic to the Big Two products from Microsoft, Windows and Office, but it takes an informed and completely no-BS approach toward the good and bad aspects of them.

Therefore I was cheered to read the latest dispatch, under the headline "Vista Service Pack 1 is looking good." For those who haven't been through the drill before, the "Service Pack" is the omnibus set of bug-fixes and improvements that Microsoft puts out six to twelve months after major new releases of its software. The standing joke is that Service Pack 1 (SP1) should be considered the "real" release, everything before that being an extended beta-test period that users have to pay to participate in. Often there's a SP2 as well. Zillions of PC worldwide are running happily right now under Windows XP / SP2.

Since buying a ThinkPad T60 factory-installed with the first release of Vista early this year, I've been unhappily triple-tracking my own computing life. I have a Mac iBook, which I need to connect with the Atlantic's head-office server; the Vista ThinkPad T60, which I've kept running as a test bed; and a kind of heirloom ThinkPad T41, on which I installed Vista but then "downgraded" to XP/SP2, and which is both more reliable and faster than the Vista machine. On this one I do much of my actual work.

Last month, as a Thanksgiving gift, Microsoft (and later Lenovo) engineers explained how I could keep the new system from gobbling up every bit of the 105-GB storage on my TP60's hard disk. I was thankful for that! What it didn't change was the slowness and unreliability of Vista on this machine. I always have to allow between three and six minutes for the machine to become usable after I start it up or bring it out of "hibernation." It takes about as long to shut it down. At least twice a week, sometimes more, I have a "blue screen of death" system crash under Vista, which happens maybe once a month on the XP machine. One occurred just minutes ago, while I was on a Skype call on the Vista machine.

But that's in the past! Office Watch says help is at hand, in the form of SP1:

While installing Vista SP1 isn't always easy, the final result is worth the trouble. In our test Vista SP1 is noticeably more stable than the version previously foisted on the public. [Note: "foisted" is the mot juste here, and it demonstrates Office Watch's spirit.] Take with a grain of salt the talk of performance improvements in Vista SP1, especially regarding file copying and network transfers. The 'boost' is really fixing Vista bugs and putting Vista on the same performance level as Windows XP. .... When Vista SP1 is released to the public in 2008, we're inclined to recommend getting it. Though we know that most people are wisely staying with Windows XP for the moment, Vista Service Pack 1 might tip the balance in favor of Vista for new computers.

According to Office Watch, anyone "brave enough" can prowl around the Microsoft web site and find the beta version of Vista SP1. (More tips on finding it here.) Having put in my time as an involuntary beta tester of Vista, I am not going to do that and am instead going to wait until the real SP1 is released early next year. But for those of you who can't wait to open presents, be my guests...

December 3, 2007

Crying wolf: Barry Diller, the Economist, and China

Three updates! Below

The Economist.com takes at face value a silly speech by Barry Diller*, based on a silly survey, and draws silly sky-is-falling conclusions.

The headline on the Economist.com item was: "America's emobyte** deficit: China's youth surpass their American rivals online." The story opened with a quote from Diller:
:

“THE Chinese people seem to be way ahead of Americans in living a digital life,” said Barry Diller, an American media mogul, last week in a speech to students in Beijing...[Diller's data] revealed that in this arena as in so much else, China is surging ahead..

They "seem" to be way ahead? I suppose, in the same sense in which I "seem" to be way taller than Yao Ming. Both of these seem true only if you ignore the actual facts. In a million different ways China deserves to be taken very seriously. But there are only two ways in which Chinese people really do seem to be "ahead" of Americans digitally.

Continue reading "Crying wolf: Barry Diller, the Economist, and China" »

December 1, 2007

Media problems in two countries: Part I, China

Two weeks ago I mentioned the difference that a VPN from WiTopia.net had made in my internet life in China. (VPN details below.*)

A few days later, a Chinese blogger named Ruan Yifeng mentioned my report on his own blog, and went on to discuss other ways Chinese users could deal with the internet filters collectively known as the Great FireWall (GFW). The original Chinese version of his post is here; a translation by the indispensable Roland Soong** of Hong Kong, on his ZonaEuropa/ESWN blog, is here; just for the hell of it, an auto-translated version via Google's online translation tools is here. It's very interesting to compare this with Soong's native-speaker, hand-crafted version.

Two days ago, Ruan Yifeng said that he had been reported to the authorities for putting such subversive information on the internet. (Original Chinese version here; Roland Soong's translation here; Google auto-translate version here.) From the ESWN version:

I just found out today that someone had just reported my "Methods of bypassing the Great Firewall of China" to the China Internet Illegal and Harmful Information Reporting Center.
I cannot help but say: Fuck, what a stupid jerk! No wonder someone said: When there is a shameless, disgusting government, there will necessarily be shameless, disgusting people.


(The auto-translate version of the second sentence is: "I really could not contain himself: damn, really such a SB!")

Ruan Yifeng says that Baidu (China's leading search engine, with a huge lead here over Google) has already filtered out his site, and "it is a matter of time when government filtering occurs." His whole saga is very much worth reading at Soong's site, for what it says about control on expression in China -- and the spirit of those trying to work their way around it. For instance, Ruan Yifeng directs his real fury not at the censors who implement the GFW but at the Chinese fellow citizen who informed on him:

"It is the existence of people like you that makes people despair about this country."

Continue reading "Media problems in two countries: Part I, China" »

November 24, 2007

Not so thankful for this at Thanksgiving (Japan Big Brother dept)

Flying from Beijing to Tokyo this morning -- generally an invigorating experience! Japan looks startlingly neat and organized even if you're arriving from Switzerland. And when you're coming not from Switzerland but from China.... Anyhow I arrived excited at the prospect of a few days here.

Unfortunately Japan's way of ushering in the Thanksgiving holidays has been to institute mandatory fingerprinting and photographing of all foreigners entering the country. Let me put this bluntly: this is an incredibly degrading, offputting, and hostility-generating process. The comment is not anti-Japanese: when the U.S. does this to foreigners, it's wrong and degrading too (as many people, including me, have pointed out over the years). But Japan has just ushered in this procedure, and they deserve to take some heat for it.

Continue reading "Not so thankful for this at Thanksgiving (Japan Big Brother dept)" »

November 22, 2007

Thankful on Thanksgiving (Windows Vista dept.)

My family has so many real and important things to be thankful for that of course I can only address the ephemera here. For instance:

Windows Vista is no longer consuming the totality of my hard drive! Talk about your happy Thanksgiving Day!

Anton Kucer and his colleagues at Microsoft dutifully tried to figure out why, on a 105GB hard drive containing maybe 30-35GB of "real" data, my computer kept showing that it had virtually no space left.

They came up with an answer! We won't exactly call it a bug, and we won't exactly call it user error, but we will call it an interaction among three forces: Lenovo ThinkPad design, Microsoft Vista design; and JFallows user design. All details are after the jump, but the headline version is: if you have Vista and are using a ThinkPad, there is a way to keep your hard drive from being totally gobbled up. I take my Thanksgivings where I can find them.

Continue reading "Thankful on Thanksgiving (Windows Vista dept.)" »

November 20, 2007

Keyboard wear update: this time, it's depressing

Here is the the way the keyboard on my Thinkpad T60 looked three months ago, when it was four months old.

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_3066.jpg

Here's the way it looks today, at seven months of age, after three more articles and one bazillion additional emails have been pounded out on its keys:

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_4285B.jpg

This second one is a little harder to see, but here's the casualty count.

Now entirely gone: the E, N, and A keys, plus the < marking.
On their way: L, M, R, S, and >
Worried: D, O.
Should be worried: U, B

No wonder my fingers are tired -- I mean, strong! And good thing China is dotted with electronic parts shops where I can buy a new keyboard, cheap, when too many letters vanish from this one. I can probably find a supplier who sent them to the factory in the first place.

When I find that guy, maybe I'll ask him whether they would consider investing an extra 50 cents for more durable keytop decals. (Yes, I know the Mac's, and others, are molded in.)

November 18, 2007

About that plan to "speed up" Thanksgiving air travel

Sorry to ring in the Thanksgiving travel week on a discouraging note, but: the plan announced with fanfare from the White House last week, to reduce airline delays by opening up military airspace, is preposterous. It will not make the slightest difference in airline delays or the general neuralgia of Thanksgiving travel. You think the media were gullible about Administration claims five years ago? Gee, it's good to see that that will never happen again....

What's wrong with this plan?

1) Military airspace is not that big a factor in NYC area or BOS-WASH corridor travel, which is where the worst of the delays originate. The FAA has a great little website, here, which shows you the status of "special use airspace" (including military space) pretty much in real time. Here is how it looked mid-afternoon Friday EST last week -- a busy travel time!

It's not worth explaining all the details here, but the main point is: there aren't that many "special use" areas near the big East Coast airports. If New York City were where Camp Lejeune is, in North Carolina, then military airspace might be an issue.* But, umm, it's not. The NY-area special airspace that looks biggest -- the brown thing off Long Island, which says ZNY (meaning that its airspace is controlled by "New York Center") -- is a "warning area," which differs from those off-limits to airliners and is way out over the ocean anyway.

Continue reading "About that plan to "speed up" Thanksgiving air travel" »

November 16, 2007

The best $39.99 I have spent in China

Or maybe: the best $39.99 I have spent on a legitimate purchase, so I don't have to weigh this against the boxed set of all episodes, ever, of The Simpsons, plus all seasons of The Sopranos, plus some other stuff, which together went for something like that price at Even Better Than Movie World in Shanghai.*

And maybe: the best $39.99 not spent on alcoholic beverages, so I also don't have to weigh it against the mixed case of Rogue Dead Guy, Brooklyn IPA, Red Seal, and other American microbrews that I got in Shanghai, back when I still was trying to find good beer and hadn't yet embraced my fate of drinking Yanjing etc through the rest of my time in China. (By the way, shrewd business planning by the Chinese beer industry! These same local Yanjing-etc brewers are ideally positioned to withstand the current and alarming world-wide shortage of, gasp, hops. You can't run out of what you don't use.)

In any case: I'm glad to have spent just now $39.99 for a year's subscription to Personal VPN, from WiTopia.net. I tried it out of desperation and found that it solved two nagging and related problems.

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November 15, 2007

Watching technology change in real time

This picture shows three ways I have paid for transportation in China:

The green card at the top is the wonderful, convenient, and all-purpose Shanghai Transport debit card. It is more modern than anything in the United States. You add money to it at a subway kiosk -- for me, usually 100RMB at a time, or $13.50. Then whenever you use almost any kind of transportation in Shanghai -- a subway, a bus, a ferryboat, and, crucially, a taxi -- you swipe the card across a reader and it deducts the fare. The joys of never having to find change for taxi fare are hard to imagine until you've experienced them. (Plus the joys of flat-fare non-tipping, a subject for another day.)

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