James Fallows

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August 2008 Archives

August 31, 2008

A proud father notes

Annie Kaufman, Tad Fallows:



 Married today, August 31, 2008, Pasadena, California.


August 29, 2008

My prediction about Sarah Palin

Unless you have seen it first first-hand, as part of the press scrum or as a campaign staffer, it is almost impossible to imagine how grueling the process of running for national office is. Everybody gets exhausted. The candidates have to answer questions and offer views roughly 18 hours a day, and any misstatement on any topic can get them in trouble. Why do candidates so often stick to a stump speech that they repeat event after event and day after day? Because they've worked out the exact way to put their positions on endless thorny issues -- Iraq, abortion, the Middle East, you name it -- and they know that creative variation mainly opens new complications.

If someone is campaigning for the presidency or vice presidency, there's an extra twist. That person has to have a line of argument to offer on any conceivable issue. Quick, without pausing in the next ninety seconds, tell me what you think about: the balance of relations between Taiwan and mainland China, and exactly what signals we're sending to Hamas, and what we think about Russia's role in the G-8 and potentially in NATO, and where North Korea stands on its nuclear pledges -- plus Iran while we're at it, plus the EU after the Irish vote, plus cap-and-trade as applied to India and China, and what's the right future for South Ossetia; and let's not even start on domestic issues.

The point about every one of those issues is that there is a certain phrase or formulation that might seem perfectly innocent to a normal person but that can cause a big uproar. Without going into the details, there is all the difference in the world between saying "Taiwan and mainland China" versus "Taiwan and China." The first is policy as normal; the second -- from an important US official -- would light up the hotline between DC and Beijing.

The further point is that not even the most accomplished person knows all this off the top of his or her head. Example: Barack Obama. He is a quick study and has been campaigning very hard for 18 months. But this summer, when he tried to offer a reassuring message about his commitment to Israeli security with his AIPAC speech, he made a rookie error by getting the standard phraseology slightly wrong.

Let's assume that Sarah Palin is exactly as smart and disciplined as Barack Obama. But instead of the year and a half of nonstop campaigning he has behind him, and Joe Biden's even longer toughening-up process, she comes into the most intense period of the highest stakes campaign with absolutely zero warmup or preparation. If she has ever addressed an international issue, there's no evidence of it in internet-land.

The smartest person in the world could not prepare quickly enough to know the pitfalls, and to sound confident while doing so, on all the issues she will be forced to address. This is long before she gets to a debate with Biden; it's what the press is going to start out looking for.

So the prediction is: unavoidable gaffes. The challenge for the McCain-Palin campaign is to find some way to defuse them ahead of time, since Socrates, Machiavelli, and Clausewitz reincarnated would themselves make errors in her situation. And the challenge for Democrats is to lead people to think, What if she were in charge?, without being bullies about it. 

The Palin pick is not like the choice of Dan Quayle

But it is exactly like the nomination of Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court. That is, an unbelievably obvious but potentially effective attempt to jiu-jitsu the standard identity politics of the moment in a way that flummoxes the Democrats. I would spell out the logic but I think it's obvious and am at a computer for only sixty seconds.

The image to have in mind is not Dan Quayle: a person with quite a bit of grounding in national issues who was added to the ticket in an attempt to jazz it up. Always and only the comparison should be with Clarence Thomas -- with this one interesting difference. Thomas was a shrewd choice not simply because his race made it more complicated for Democrats to oppose him but also because, once confirmed, all evidence suggested to conservatives that he'd be the kind of Justice they were looking for. In Palin's case, this seems to be a choice that looks forward to Election Day, and not one day beyond that.


Convention speeches

Here is what's unusual about the lineup of Democratic convention speeches. Usually each convention features one very strong speech, sometimes two. Barbara Jordan with the keynote at the Democratic convention in 1976. Teddy Kennedy with his memorable (though damaging to Jimmy Carter) "the dream will never die" speech in 1980, bidding farewell to his presidential aspirations. Ronald Reagan speaking to Barry Goldwater's supporters at the Cow Palace in San Francisco in 1964, beginning his own presidential aspirations. Barack Obama serving a similar function in 2004.

I don't know of any parallel to what just happened for the Democrats in Denver, where a series of speakers all performed at the top of their form, notably:

- Hillary Clinton, doing as much for "party unity" as she plausibly could, with her best delivered speech of the whole campaign cycle;

- Bill Clinton, reminding everyone in the party (and much of the country) of why he had won two terms; giving Barack Obama an implicit lesson on how to cast the choice in this election; and erasing in 30 minutes 98% of the problems he had created for himself in his party over the previous year;

- John Kerry, speaking with an intense, tough, terse contempt for Bush administration policies that would have gotten him elected four years ago;

- Al Gore, like Kerry liberated from any previous starchiness by contempt for Bush-Cheney and by knowing he has nothing more to prove;

- Michelle Obama, who in terms of presenting herself and her husband for the election could not have been more cannily effective -- and appealing;

- And of course Barack Obama himself, who showed his own canniness in using his familiar oratorical virtuosity in an unfamiliar way, with a specific, by-name, respectful contempt for the ideas of John McCain. Respect for the serivce of John McCain; contempt for his record.

Joe Biden is an honorary member of the list. His speech was the one slightly-short-of-expectations moment among the big speakers, but its very artlessness probably added to its political effectiveness in the long run.

This has never happened before. Usually there are a number of obvious turkeys among the big-kahuna speakers. This time, the biggest names came in facing very tough tests (how will Bill and Hillary behave? How can Obama re-position himself?) and very high expectations. They aced the tests and beat the expectations in every case.

John McCain's speechwriters have one thing going for them at the moment: a week to look over what the Dems have said and work out a response. 
 

August 25, 2008

A farewell to 加油

It's the first day of the rest of Beijing's life. I have no further thoughts to offer about the Games and their aftermath, so I bid them adieu with these few notebook items.

I also take leave of blog-land for the next week, because of (happy) family gatherings and other duties. The Democrats in Denver and the tennis players in New York will keep everyone occupied:

- The most riveting detail in today's NYT story about Olympic TV ratings success is fingering the person responsible for scheduling the games in the hottest time of the summer. It turns out to have been NBC's Dick Ebersol, and not, as everyone I've talked with had assumed, some astrology-conscious faction within the Beijing Olympic Committee that was obsessed with having the opening ceremony on August 8. Of course that's 08/08/08, heavy on the most traditionally "auspicious" number in Chinese culture.  Details in the very interesting NYT story. Years' worth of pop-culture analysis of modern China, right down the drain!

But maybe it was local people who added the flourish that the ceremonies start at 8:08 pm.

- The last big-deal event I saw was a big deal indeed: gold-medal football/soccer match, Argentina 1-0 over Nigeria. (Tickets offered by a foreign friend at the last minute.*) As a viewer,  I was reminded that soccer is the sport that suffers most in the transition from in-person to TV. TV can capture a whole court's worth of action in basketball, and tennis, and usually baseball and football, though each is different when seen for real. But the soccer field is so big that what you see on TV is little isolated chunks of action rather than any larger flow -- or else, in the wide shots, a whole field with tiny dots moving around and kicking.  

Despite the appeal of on-scene viewing, despite the Argentinian team's long-standing popularity among Chinese fans, despite the gold-medal stakes, and despite everything else, once again the arena was not full. As at most venues, the cheap upper tier seats, where tickets had been opened for sale to the public, were all occupied. A lot of the fancy seats were flat empty. (Click for larger.)

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_5108.jpg


Note in the shot below the Chinese participants who I think edge out the opening-ceremony cheerleaders for the gold medal in stoicism. During the entire match, they had to look constantly into the crowd. This was presumably to be on guard if  anyone tried to charge the field or -- much worse! -- take out some kind of banner. How you could sneak a banner in through the security screenings is mystery on its own. Not once did I see a one of them turn around, even when the crowd roared and the stadium seemed to pulse with excitement. They didn't move or flinch at all. Assuming that they were actual people and not mannequins, I say: Well done! Jia you!

(Note also the optical illusion in the shot: with the curved lines, it looks as if the picture is a trapezoid, with the bottom edge sloping up toward the right, rather than a rectangle. Or maybe the Games have destroyed my eyes and mind.)

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_5110.jpg


- Speaking of empty venues, the photographer Zach Honig went to the Olympic Green some 12 hours after the closing ceremony, and: ghost town!  You can see more of his pictures here.

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Enjoy the convention and the US Open. Signing off from Olympic coverage and all things  Internet for a while.
_____

* I benefited from the strange ticket distribution system, in this way. Before the games, my wife and I felt lucky to have come up with any ticket whatsoever: a first-day, standing-area only ticket to preliminary heats out at the rowing center. Over subsequent days, we ended up seeing quite  a lot of the action, in every case because people who had gotten tickets overseas or through companies ended up with spares. Thanks to our benefactors Tom B, Ken S, Andy R, Howard S, Eliot C, and Melanie C.

** For those joining us late, the headline refers to the Chinese phrase 加油, jia you!, which means roughly "let's go!" and was the de facto motto of the Games.

August 23, 2008

About Biden as speaker (updated x2)

Because of my recent forced immersion into the entirety of the primary debate season, I have this reaction about Joe Biden's presence on the ticket:

As a questioner at Senate hearings, Biden has often been disappointing. He typically uses up too much of the time listening to himself talk, and at the end he's left with barely time enough to pose an easily escapable question like "Isn't that right?" or "I'd like to hear your reaction to that."

But as a debater within his own party and as a rhetorician against the other side, the Biden of the primary campaign was very good. He stuck to the time limits because he had to, and with that discipline he almost always made the points he wanted to, and forcefully.

He also showed a certain bearing in the debates that could come in handy as a running mate for Obama. This was his "let's cut the crap" impatience with what he considered fatuous questions and what he also considered the plain foolishness of Bush Administration policy.

Politicians have to be egomaniacal to be in the business. Anyone who enters the US Senate with a limited appreciation of self soon has it expanded. But while Biden's ineffective hearing "questions" often sounded as if they came from "normal" Senatorial egotism -- I'm on stage now, listen to me -- his debate comments and his partisan anti-Bush arguments reflected a more attractive egotism of knowledge and policy. Let's call it simple confidence, of the sort that Bill Clinton in his prime displayed when dismissing Republican economic arguments. The subliminal message in this pose is: I know what I'm talking about here, I've dealt with this for years, and I have no time for the other side's ignorance.

It may seem a small difference, but it can make Biden more effective as an authoritative and unhesitating mean-cop counterpart to Obama during a campaign. 

After the jump, one example, based on one of Biden's answers at a debate last year.

UPDATE: Here is a YouTube clip of Biden giving the answer quoted below, and some more. Fortunately it looks as strong as I remembered! Thanks to Christopher Adams.

Extra update: This clip is really great until about the last 20 seconds, when Biden gives an answer about dealing with China that is as glib as his other answers are well-informed. Unfortunately, all the Democrats took that line in the debates. Topic for another time.
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Continue reading "About Biden as speaker (updated x2)" »

Catching up on two Olympics points

1) Nationalistic coverage. Background: previous comments about the quite impressive Sino-centrism of what China Central TV chooses to broadcast.

Right now as I type, some of the marquee events of track and field, on the last night of competition, are underway at the Bird's Nest Stadium a few miles from here. And CCTV is showing instead: a ping-pong match between a Chinese player and a Swede, a diving contest involving two Chinese stars, interviews with a foreign coach of a Chinese team, and replays of week-old swimming events in which Chinese athletes did well. These are at the very instant that the men's 5000m is underway. Same thing during men's 800m.  Will this apply to the men's and women's 4x400 relays?? Arggh! One world! One dream!
 
 Update: Indeed, nothing from the final night of track & field was carried on the normal Chinese stations available on our normal Beijing TV set -- except, who knows why, the women's 1500. No problem, no one from China was in any of the races, but still I don't see even the "nationalistic" NBC doing it just this way.  Similarly, we're getting the bronze-medal women's basketball game, China-v-Russia, but not the gold medal women's volleyball game, US-v-Brazil. (And now we're getting a replay of a taekwando match rather than the volleyball championship. This makes me realize that I haven't ever seen on CCTV the live-action cutaways taken for granted in US sports coverage: "Let's go now to the Water Cube, where the final round..." ...) But whenever I feel down, I realize: we've got wall-to-wall ping pong.

2) Translation vs Transliteration. Background: some people have written in to hint -- gently! -- that I might be exaggerating in saying that crucial maps and guides for international visitors to the Olympics were written in Chinese characters plus transliterated "English" versions of those Chinese words. After the jump, proof that I wasn't!

Continue reading "Catching up on two Olympics points" »

August 22, 2008

Media note (updated)

Late Thursday night, Beijing time, I did an interview about the Olympics for the Lehrer News Hour show that I think will be shown early Thursday night US time. This was foreign-correspondentry from Ye Olden Days: hearing a question over the telephone, carefully putting down the telephone so it's out of camera frame, and then answering the question into the camera -- and those recorded answers being FTPd to the US to be spliced with the questions. OK, semi-olden days. Basic theme: Zhongguo Jia You! Aoyun Hui Jia You!

*
Update: Apparently not shown Thursday. Maybe Friday? Que sera sera.

 ** Updated update: The segment did run on Friday. Info here, with link to streaming video here.


Blue skies

For the last week, Beijing's skies have been, mostly, glorious. I went for a long run this afternoon, and got sunburned while doing so, a risk I had not previously feared.

Out the window today
http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_5089.jpg

Same window two weeks ago (and much of the preceding six months)
http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_4802.jpg

All credit to whoever and whatever made this happen, from the Chinese scientists I quoted a few months ago saying that it would play out more or less the way it did; to the Chinese officials implementing the factory- and traffic- shutdown plans; to the American scientist who accurately predicted that the wind would shift to the proper, cleansing direction two or three days into the Games; to whatever powers were fundamentally responsible for the change of wind. The Japanese concept of 神風 -- kamikaze, "divine wind" -- unavoidably comes to mind.

In the bleak days just before the opening ceremony, I wondered whether the air could be such a problem that it would, through sheer shock, force a reconsideration of China's environmental policies. Now it's possible to imagine the opposite prospect: that Beijingers, having for once seen how transformed and pleasant the city can be when not under a pall, might resist being pushed back into the blear. As Jake Barnes once put it in different circumstances,  Isn't it pretty to think so.
 

August 21, 2008

How to avoid becoming a Kindle nerd-bore

Only one way: Just shut up when tempted to say or write anything about it. Otherwise you'll be driving people crazy with your enthusing about how useful and convenient it is, and what its potential might be, and how many elegant decisions are evident in its conception and design.

I'm talking mainly about high-level functional design: what should the whole system be able to do? What functions should be built in or omitted? Rather than the physical industrial design of the device itself -- which is quite nice but is widely recognized as Ver 1.0 of something that will go through many refinements and tweaks.

After the jump, two points about functional-design elegance, then maintaining silence on this subject for as long as I can:
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Continue reading "How to avoid becoming a Kindle nerd-bore" »

Aviation note

I am way behind on the small-plane aviation news, because of the dreaded combination of (a) Olympics happening all around me and (b) actual writing to do.

As a place marker, two items: one positive, one.... interesting.

Positive news:  Much more information about Cirrus Design's new "Vision" personal jet here, from Flight Blogger, and here, from Cirrus itself.

the-jet-first-flight.jpg

8-x-10-CAD.jpg

Among many other things, I love the idea that Mike Van Staagen. who when I interviewed him for Free Flight in Duluth nearly a decade ago was working on the interior for the then-revolutionary SR-20, is now a Vice President for the Advanced Design Group making this plane.

Interesting news: So much is happening so fast at Eclipse Aviation that I'll have to catch up another time. But for later examination: a few months after I moved to Shanghai, in September of 2006. I heard from a friend in the FAA that it was worth noticing the way the Eclipse certification had so rapidly been approved.

Now that there is business turmoil in the company, a Congressional investigation seems to have been opened into that exact topic -- according to this story in the Albuquerque Journal. For the moment I say... interesting. (Thanks to David Strip.)
 

August 20, 2008

Sincerest sign of gratitude for Beijing's new air

For the first two days of the Olympics, things looked bad on the air front. Then after two big thunderstorms and the passage of a cold front, things have been nice! Confirming my oft-expressed optimism that it would all work out just in time.

And after 25 months and zero outdoors runs in China, I've gone for four- or five- mile runs three times in the last week! All this along a reasonably nice flagstoned path along the canal that is  just south of Tonghuihe North Road, between the old Beijing Train Station and the 4th Ring Road. (Only peril is migrant workers sleeping on shaded parts of the path during the day. I barely avoided planting my foot directly on one, in a dark underpass, today. I jumped over him at the last second and he didn't wake up.)

Previously I had praised the USATF.org site as a way to map running and bike routes. It turns out that MapMyRun.com works provides the same kind of mappable routes even in China! Ah this modern age. I'll keep this up as long as the good times last.
 

On the ages of the female Chinese gymnasts

I haven't watched any gymnastics, live or on TV; don't follow the sport; and have no opinion on how old members of various teams look and how much that matters.

But this new post, from the Stryde Hax blog, does an impressive technical job of finding information that has not yet been removed from caches of official Chinese sites. At face value it makes a strong circumstantial case that one of the gymnasts, the double gold-medalist He Kexin, was born in 1994 rather than 1992, making her 14.

235312.jpg

The post also includes links to two cached screenshots of Chinese birth records that, for now, still exist. (Many others have been very recently removed.) See them here and here.  No harm in saving or printing a screen shot..... These are Chinese charts that show name, sex, date of birth, place of birth. The name in question is 何可欣, and one of the lines where it appears says:

618,"何可欣","女","1994.1.1","湖北"

(# 618, He Kexin, female, Jan 1 1994, Hubei)

Worth further looking into.  A very nice touch is that Stryde Hax shows us all his work, so the searches are checkable.  (Thanks to John Scott and of course Slashdot.)

Update: Really, I don't care about gymnastics! And as noted before I'm delighted that China is doing so well in these games, and sorry about Liu Xiang. What interests me in this case is the technical sleuthery of the guy who found the cached pages, and the deeper issue of "transparency" in the Chinese system. Revising public records is not something Chinese people or outsiders should want to see.


August 19, 2008

Take me out to the ball game (Beijing version)

Monday night fun, watching Team USA take on Team China at the Beijing Wukesong Olympic baseball field. The Olympic basketball stadium, which stands next door, is destined as a lasting addition to Beijing's sporting patrimony. The baseball field, like the velodrome and (sigh!) the beach volleyball area in Chaoyang Park, is destined to vanish as soon as the games are done.

Beforehand, much good natured cross-national cheering in the stands. The US team was the favorite but this was not necessarily a gimme. The Chinese team had, for the first time ever, beaten the Taiwanese. (I mean, the team from "Chinese Taipei.")

Stands were almost full! Perhaps because of the unmolested presence of hordes of scalpers outside. At many venues, scalpers can't do much because you need a ticket to get within a mile of the arena. Oh, yes, also it's illegal. In the jovially packed house, there was a polite cheering alternation as one group of fans would yell the ever-classy "U - S - A! U - S - A!" and then the other would give the equally imaginative Zhongguo! Jia You! Zhongguo! Jia You!
 



Then everything became a mess, as detailed in this story. Executive summary: China's best player, the catcher Wang Wei, was knocked out of the game when American Matt LaPorta bowled him over and scored. In the next inning the backup Chinese catcher was knocked over in a similar play. When LaPorta next came to bat, the pitcher promptly drilled him right in the head -- the ball bounced so hard off LaPorta's helmet that it came nearly back to the mound.


 
In the end, LaPorta left the game (but is apparently OK), the US won 9 -1, and the Chinese fans got some satisfaction when the backup catcher, Yang Yang, hit a 9th inning home run. Yang showboated as he rounded the bases, leading to apparent ill feelings on the field. But most in the stands seemed to miss it, and a relatively good mood prevailed in the crowd on departure, considering.

Main athletic point I learned by seeing this in person: most noticeable overall difference between US players and Chinese was how hard and accurately they threw the ball. It was not just the difference in the pitchers: the US starter Jake Arrieta throwing above 90mph early in the game while China's pitchers were in the 70s and low 80s. I think the one that hit LaPorta was clocked at 68. The throws across the infield and from outfielders also looked different. It's always amazing at Major League games to see the ease with which the 3rd baseman pegs it across the infield or the center fielder throws toward home. From the stands, that was the easiest way to tell the teams apart.

Update: Ouch! Team China's final game was tonight against the mighty Cubans. The game was called by the mercy rule at 17-1, after the Cubans had batted only six times. On Friday Cuba meets the US in one semifinal, with South Korea vs Japan in the other,
  

Too much Olympics? Try 'Ace in the Hole'

No more heart to watch the Olympics now that Michael Phelps and Liu Xiang have left the stage? To say nothing of the departed archery teams, lightweight weightlifters, rowers, etc?

Fill the empty hours, and get into the right mood for the upcoming conventions and general election campaign, with a fabulously bleak and cynical old movie from Netflix: Ace in the Hole.


Ace in the Hole (1951).jpg

Start-off benefit: Kirk Douglas's shirtless scenes an easy transition from watching toned bodies in the Water Cube.

Douglas plays a newspaper reporter who looks the way many male reporters may fantasize that they might look, and acts the way many non-reporters think the press actually behaves. Directed, with an acid touch, by Billy Wilder. When it came out in 1951, the film flopped at the box office, apparently because its depiction of media ethics and public appetites was considered too dark. Right now -- judge for yourself. Many details in the movie are surprisingly dated, but others could have come from yesterday's cable TV news Also, Kirk Douglas, who was 35 when the film was made and is now nearing 92, deserves to get some more buzz for this performance while he's around.

PS: Although I missed this item when it came out, I see that Jack Shafer had a much more detailed dark hymn-of-praise to the movie here, a year ago on Slate. Plus clips from the film! (Heard about the film instead from my friend Bob Schapiro.) Shafer is much harder to please than I am, so that's really a sign that the film is worth checking out.

August 18, 2008

Empty-seat mystery, cont.

In several previous posts I've mentioned the paradox of Olympic tickets being flat "sold-out," yet huge tracts of seats sitting empty. Many people have written in to solve the mystery. This, from Alf Hickey, reflects the consensus view:

Large amounts of empty seats are actually quite common at Chinese concerts or sporting events that claim to be "sold out." The reason for this is that a large amount of tickets are given to the bigwigs who organize the events so they can guanxi them out ["build relationships"] as needed. Since the Olympics had so  many different organizing bodies, the central government, the local Beijing government and the Chinese Olympic committee, I'm sure there were vast amounts tickets given to various officials.

The reason that these tickets are not used is that by the rules of Chinese guanxi, you don't refuse a gift, especially not from someone connected enough to get Olympic tickets. So the tickets to the rowing finals are probably in the hands of people who have no desire to see the event, but just needed to stay in the good graces of some random Beijing bureaucrat. I suspect that the tickets have already changed hands more than once, passed along like a box of moon cakes that no one actually wants to eat.


Saying something nice about CCTV

As I've harped on before, in posts too numerous to link to, China's state-run network CCTV has been unashamedly nationalistic in choosing which Olympic events to show. OK: most people watching are Chinese.

But the play by play expert commentators seem surprisingly non-home-team in what they say. Sports broadcasting is its own stripped down dialect in any language, and the CCTV team seems about as willing to apply the standard Chinese versions of "beautiful" or "well done" or "not bad at all" terms to a nice dive, three-point shot, good serve by a rival as to one of their own. And they usually say "China" rather than "we" for the home team.

Of course, my sample could be skewed, since I haven't seen any Japan-v-China events.

In a crew race where the Chinese women's team came from behind for a dramatic upset victory, the announcer screamed himself hoarse and raised his voice two octaves as the boat crossed the finish line. But that was straight out of America's own "Do you believe in miracles?!?!?" Olympic play book.

Biggest news of the Olympics for China: Liu Xiang is out

Incredible.  During the entirety of our past two years in China, Liu Xiang has been the face of the upcoming Olympic games. He is China's greatest-ever track and field athlete, defending Olympic gold medalist in the 110m hurdles, the man whose smile and whose action-shots soaring over hurdles we have seen in maybe ten thousand TV ads, billboards, subway signs, and every other medium.

In happier times, as Olympic champion in Athens:
Liu_Xiang.jpg

He stumbled just now in a heat in which someone else false-started; then he withdrew from the event. As I mentioned a month ago, Liu has probably been under more individual pressure than any other person involved in these Games. It would be as if Michael Phelps were the only American ever to have won a gold medal in swimming -- Liu's position among Chinese male track and field athletes -- and would be racing only once, in the 50-yard freestyle.

Liu has known for four years that a billion-plus people in his country would be watching -- and that, in something less than thirteen seconds, he would be celebrated forever as the man who helped glorify the Olympics and his country, or reviled as a big disappointment. I don't have them on hand at the moment, but there have been many recent quotes to the effect of: "If Liu Xiang fails to win a second gold, on his home soil in front of his countrymen, everything he has achieved so far will be dirt." Etc.

Probably there's something so wrong with his foot or Achilles tendon that he couldn't even try to compete in the re-run of the heat. But it would be natural and human if it were something more too: perhaps better not to try at all than to be captured forever on tape coming up short. It's hard to feel sorry for someone as rich and celebrated as Liu Xiang. But you can sympathize.

August 17, 2008

Halfway through: #4 (and last for now)

4) The imposed order and absence of protests is creepy, to say the least.

Before the Olympics, I had thought that the most likely way the whole event could go wrong would be this: Someone, somehow, was sure to mount a protest about Tibet, human rights, or any other issue. When that happened, the authorities, bast on past performance, were sure to over-react.

As it turns out, they've over-reacted in advance by buttoning everything up so tight that no dissent of any sort shows. Three big venues have been set aside for "authorized" protests, but these last few days it's been clear that no authorizations will be granted. (And that smart Chinese groups realize they shouldn't try.) I see that Nicholas Kristof has today published a column on this very topic, so I needn't explain any more.

Related: papers in Australia and the UK have been publicizing what they say is a leaked memo from the Chinese propaganda ministry, with 21 do's and dont's for the Chinese media in covering the Olympics and possible protests.  One version of the text, from the Sydney Morning Herald, is here (background here) and includes this item:

9. In regard to the three protest parks, no interviews and coverage is allowed.
I can't be sure whether this leaked memo is legitimate. Most China veterans I've asked say that it probably is, since it sounds like other, similar guidelines (including one I quoted in this article about the Great FIrewall) and in fact is not news at all, since it reflects no more than established policy.
 

Halfway through: #3

3) Logistics. On the whole, they've worked pretty well. In particular, the new subway line 10 has been a godsend for getting people to the main Olympic venue. Sometimes line 10 shuts down earlier than the Olympic events do, but that's a detail. And the young volunteer guides are numerous, friendly, and eager to help.

There are three notable exceptions, which I say based not just on general reports but on repeated personal experience with all of them.

    - Food. Spectators are searched for food and drink on the way into the venues, and any consumable item is confiscated. (After previous confiscation episodes, my wife got away with smuggling a small Toblerone bar into a stadium. The guard held it up skeptically and asked what it was. "Medicine," she said in Chinese. He made her taste some, which she did quickly without letting him look too closely at it -- and got through.)
 
    The problem is, it is very difficult to find much else inside. The relatively abundant food stands sell snack-junk only: potato chips, popcorn, sweet rolls, ice cream cones, plus cheap beer and Coke. I have not yet seen even one spectator at a venue consuming anything heartier -- say, sandwich, hotdog, you name it. Is McDonald's, the monopoly fast-food sponsor, responsible? It has a huge central outlet on the Olympic Green, but not any at the sporting venues. Some other business obstacle? I don't know. Believe me, I'm not the only one to notice.

Continue reading "Halfway through: #3" »

Halfway through: #2

2) Medal counts, as discussed earlier. Both the "Chinese system" and the "US system" of national medal-ranking have obvious flaws. Chinese system = only gold medals matter. US system = all medals count the same. Obviously some "weighting" system would be more sensible -- say, 3 points for gold, 2 for silver, 1 for bronze. 

Of course the most sensible approach would be to dump country-ranking altogether, given what an odd assortment of sports are aggregated to determine total national "success."  Skeet-shooting; hammer throw; badminton; the triple-jump; wind surfing; trampoline; team archery; beach volleyball; one more stop on the pro tennis tour. Compounding this is the imbalance in "medal richness" among sports. Even if Kobe Bryant were as dominant in basketball as Michael Phelps is in swimming, there's only one gold medal to be won in hoops, or a maximum of two for Roger Federer in tennis. (He got one, in doubles.) So individual athletic celebration would be best. But let's stay in the realm of reality.

While the bizarreness of Olympic sport-selection means that not even a sensibly weighted system would say much about a country's overall strength, merits, soft-power, future prospects, average fitness level, etc, the contrast between the "Chinese" and "American" systems does show something about their respective athletic systems.

Mainly because the United States is so much richer than China, a far larger share of its young people participate in organized sports of some kind. Ivy League admissions directors  complain that they have to set aside a big chunk of their entering classes to ensure that sports rosters are filled (fencing, lacrosse, men's and women's crew, football, etc). No elite Chinese university has ever had that complaint. The national sports system in China has instead concentrated on picking a few people, very early in life, and training them intensively for specific Olympic disciplines. That is the point of stories like these, mentioned earlier.

The US system provides a deeper pool of athletes in a narrower range of popular US sports: swimming, basketball, track and field, etc. Australia is the extreme example of this approach,  with 1/10th as many people as the US and 1/40th as many as China but still presenting deep squads in swimming and rowing. (For a while on Sunday, with swimming and rowing just done, Australia was #3 in overall medals, behind the US and China.) China has a more systematic approach to developing a few potential champions in as broad a range of competitions as it can cover.

These are different approaches, suiting the wealth and to a degree the social systems of the countries. Not better or worse, but with different medal implications.

Update: I should have read Wednesday's Wall Street Journal when it arrived! Ian Johnson has a story on this same pattern, pointing out that in theory the IOC discourages country-ranking at all. After the jump, an interesting quote from the story about different opinions on the two systems.
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Continue reading "Halfway through: #2" »

Halfway through the Olympics: #1 in a rapid-fire series

1) Never to be forgotten: It's good for the Chinese people and good for everyone else that the Olympics have overall gone as smoothly as they have -- air quality improving, no deal-breaking logistics problems -- and that so many Chinese athletes have done so well. This is notwithstanding a number of the less-positive points we'll get to shortly. Considering all the different ways in which China has interacted with the world in the last 50 years, considering all the challenges ordinary Chinese people have to put up with, it's beneficial and, and, by any rational standard, non-threatening to have national energies channeled into this kind of competition. It's touching to see so many ordinary Chinese crowds cheering for their new heroes.

         1A)  Related point: Positive Chinese nationalism - the "I love China" decals on many people's faces - should not be threatening to anybody else. History is full of examples of "rising national powers" getting the big head, feeling arrogant, and doing dangerous things. That's not the main feeling I get here.  It's negative Chinese nationalism, like what appeared after the protests over the Olympic torch relay in April, that we should worry about. So a confident China is to be congratulated; a victimized-feeling China is the one to be feared.

McCain and Pastor Rick Warren

I didn't see Barack Obama's session with Rick Warren. Hey, I'm in China. Just now I saw that John McCain's session with Warren is being shown.

McCain looks comfortable and is doing well. How do I square saying this with my argument in this recent article that he is a poor public speaker who does not show up well in debates? Easy.

1) Although Obama and McCain appeared back to back, this was in no sense a debate. This was the Larry King show, minus the usual incisive follow-up. In 45 minutes or so I saw, Pastor Rick Warren did not once ask "what do you mean by?" or "but what about?" He served up topics and sat aside as the candidate gave his standard answers, which were subject to no examination.  OK: that's one approach.

It is an approach basically similar to the "Town Hall" meeting format, where average citizens present questions -- often more barbed than Warren's -- and then the politician says what he wants, usually without rebuttal or followup. As I pointed out in my article, this is the one form of spoken discourse that McCain enjoys and often does well at:

In these circumstances, McCain's tactics against Obama are obvious. He will ask for as many debates as he can, starting with informal town halls before either he or Obama is officially nominated. The informal setting shows him off to his best advantage, with the affable bantering that has long made him a favorite with the press.


2) The candidates did not have to perform under pressure, which is what makes face-to-face debates different from every other form of political discourse.

I mean, of course there is pressure in any campaign appearance. In this one, Obama faced the pressure of entering presumably hostile territory; McCain, of figuring out the right way to shore up his conservative support. But they did not have to deal directly with each other -- with challenges to their arguments, with taunts and repartee, even with the effects of body language and the knowledge that viewers were sizing them up side-by-side. Again as the article said:

We don't watch debates to learn what someone thinks about Social Security. We watch to see how the contenders look next to their opponents, how they react when challenged, how well or poorly they come up with the words we later see in print.
These are the things we didn't really see --at least about McCain, in the part I watched. Not even how well or poorly he comes up with words, since most of what he said was part of his standard repertoire.

3) If I were in the Obama campaign, I would ban all mention of points #1 and #2 and would instead stress as often as I could: Boy, now that we seem him in action, we have a sense of how good a debater this John McCain really is! Frankly, the best we can hope from the debate match-ups is to get out alive. Everybody knows that our guy is not at his best in debates. And with that charm and wit, there's no way McCain won't win over the crowd. Expectations for him have to be sky-high..... 


August 15, 2008

The Olympics will have to take care of themselves for a while now...

... as actual work impends. Back home at 1:30am from the "afternoon" events.  Tales of logistics nightmares, of a phenomenally clear, crisp, and beautiful Beijing day, of the true meaning of medal counts, and other such topics later on. (Stop reading here if waiting for delayed broadcast of tennis games.)

The event that made the hassle worthwhile: watching Roger Federer, seemingly in the course of the first set, pick up the instincts of the doubles game:

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_5044a.jpg

At the start of the match, against the dominant doubles team in the world (Mike and Bob Bryan of the US, top seeded in the Olympics), Federer looked mildly chagrined to be out there -- and ill at ease on the doubles court. Every point his Swiss team lost in the very first game, Federer lost himself -- muffed volley that seemed to take him by surprise, ground stroke into the net, etc.

He and his partner Stanislas Wawrinka -- the second-best male tennis player in Switzerland, sort of like being the second most successful presidential candidate in the Clinton household  -- won the first set in a tie-break, and in the second set Federer suddenly seemed to find his instinct and place.

   http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_5027.jpg

The Bryans are made for doubles, but Federer took over, and he and Wawrinka upset the Americans in straight sets.

Happy as I am for James Blake, who knocked Federer out of the Olympic singles with his first-ever victory over him (before being knocked out himself a few hours ago), it is undeniably sad to see the elegant Federer (like Sampras before him -- like everyone before him) starting to look mortal on the singles court. It was nice to see his revival in doubles -- and it must be a strange kind of milestone for him, that an "upset" means he won.

More on Chauvinism. medals, and Olympic TV

This follows up the recent item saying that people who are in a huff about America-centrism in NBC's coverage should put things in perspective. (I've heard from many people about beach volleyball-centrism in NBC's coverage too. Agnostic on that.)

1) A Slate item, by June Shih, whose headline makes the point: "You think NBC is bad? You haven't seen CCTV." CCTV is of course China Central TV.

If you're going to rely on CCTV to bring you your Olympics, you've got to care about the Chinese teams. ...

Instead of [NBC's] soft-focus profiles, what you get from CCTV is raw, one-sided footage. Predictably, the cameras were trained exclusively on the Chinese gymnasts. During the early rotations, when the Chinese unexpectedly found themselves in fifth place, CCTV broadcast little or no footage of the teams in first, second, third, and fourth. ....

It was a reminder that, at the end of the day, [CCTV] is still a large cog in a giant propaganda machine. NBC is patriotic because patriotism sells; CCTV is patriotic because patriotism is the law.

Shih, like me, is positive about these Olympics, many of the Chinese athletes, One World One Dream, the Fuwa, and all the rest. But she's describing the same thing I see.

2) From "Traveling Lavalles," by an American family now in Shanghai, a completely true point about varying national conceptions of "success" at the games:

Medals: Only gold count!  Contrary to internal propaganda regarding the country not being in a quest for gold, that is all that is being counted.... They want the most gold medals - nothing else matters.  Locals are frustrated that Yahoo! ranks country performance based on total medals [instead of gold medals]...That would make Michael Phelps something like number 4 as a country as of right now.

It's interesting to look at the official Beijing Olympics medal-count site, which like all other media I've seen in China ranks countries' performance according to how many gold medals they have won. Right at this moment, it shows China as #1 with 22 golds, vs 14 for the runner up, the United States. Then look at the main US Olympic Committee/NBC medal-count site, which as of right now shows the US as #1 with 43 total medals, vs 36 for #2 China.  We're all above average!

This is kind of an electoral college/popular vote issue. I don't know how it will shake out when all the events are done, but right now the gold supremacy is another cause for good national feelings in China.


UPDATE: More on the medal-count wars here.



August 14, 2008

Here's something you don't see every day

Michael Phelps, finishing second in a swimming race just now:

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_4965.jpg

He's the one in lane 4 touching the wall... well, second, after a guy from Serbia* in lane 5, who is already looking upward in his white cap. (Click for larger.)

Yes, it was only the preliminary heats of the mens' 100m butterfly; and yes, he had the second-fastest time of the large field overall; and yes, he lost by .11 of a second; and yes, it looked as if he was not trying his very, very hardest. And yes, he's failed to win some other heats in events in which he eventually won the gold medal. Still, somehow disorienting to see!

(Saturday am update: The "guy from Serbia" was the same Milorad Cavic whom Phelps out-touched by .01 of a second in the finals for his seventh gold medal.)

Saw it this evening at the Water Cube -- last minute tickets from a friend --  and having complained about some Olympic logistics. and kept other complaints to myself, I will say that everything about transportation, crowd control flow, security screening, and all the rest of the tedious practicality of an event was handled very, very well.  After the jump, two other photos illustrating things I hadn't known until my wife and I went there tonight:
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Continue reading "Here's something you don't see every day" »

Am I the last person to know this? (Fuwa dept)

We all know and love the Beijing Olympic mascots, the five Fuwa, right?

Img214108291.jpg
And I've known they had names. Bei-Bei for one, I think. Maybe Pan-Da for the black and white Fuwa? I haven't been quite sure...

It turns out, thanks to my wife the linguist, that there is a very easy mnemonic way to memorize their names -- easy if you're hanging around Beijing these days. Their names, in proper order, are:

Bei-Bei
Jing-Jing
Huan-Huan
Ying-Ying
Ni-Ni

And the first syllables of those names, put together, spell out Beijing Huanying Ni ! -- "Beijing Welcomes You!" which is not only one of the official sentiment of the Games but also the refrain of a can't-get-it-out-of-your-head Flintstone-type song playing all over the place these days. So now I know! It's like that "Aha!" moment when you understand the master code at the end of The Name of the Rose or The DaVinci Code or perhaps Citizen Kane.

If there were two more Fuwa, perhaps they could be called Jia-Jia and You-YouJust a thought.

August 13, 2008

More on Chengdu and collectivism

A friend recently sent on quite an amazing blog post. It is a systematic, but funny!, examination of the "science" behind NYT column I was objecting to recently:  David Brooks' claim that economic competition between China and America should really be understood as a clash between collectivist and individualist models of life and thought.

The premise of the NYT column was: We don't like to admit it, but brain experts and experimental psychologists know what we're going to do before we know ourselves. For instance, by knowing whether we come from a collectivist or individualist system, they can predict what we'll see when we look at a tank of fish.

I was complaining about the application of this theory to the real world of modern China. And I didn't make a point I should have: The problem is not just sweeping generalizations about the billion-plus highly diverse people who live in China. The further point is that if you were to generalize, you'd find that many outsiders who've lived in China consider it more individualist-minded than many other Asian countries, notably Japan. (For instance, southern China is full of tiny mom-and-pop factories, since people love being their own boss and aren't that keen on taking orders from others.) It's commonplace to hear Americans and Chinese say that they feel their cultures share many personality traits, despite the obvious huge differences. More another time.

But that is small potatoes compared with the argument presented by Mark Liberman, of the linguistics and computer science department at U Penn. It turns out that the theory itself is .... well, see for yourself in Liberman's devastating analysis at the Language Log blog.

One little sample:

Brooks' column: "If you show an American an image of a fish tank, the American will usually describe the biggest fish in the tank and what it is doing. If you ask a Chinese person to describe a fish tank, the Chinese will usually describe the context in which the fish swim."

Liberman: "First of all, it wasn't a representative sample of Americans, it was undergraduates in a psychology course at the University of Michigan; and second, it wasn't Chinese, it was undergraduates in a psychology course at Kyoto University in Japan; and third, it wasn't a fish tank, it was 10 20-second animated vignettes of underwater scenes; and fourth, the Americans didn't mention the "focal fish" more often than the Japanese, they mentioned them less often."
In my twilight years, I am not looking to pick a fight with anyone, and explicitly am not looking to do so with the amiable David Brooks. But I didn't like the argument or craftsmanship of this column, and I do hope he recognizes the danger of applying this kind of theorizing to big, important parts of the world. Or any parts!

Update: A good roundup of online reaction to Brooks's column here.

Wednesday evening Olympics, in two parts

The real Beijing
Before the Olympics began, one hypothesis for their outcome was "Potemkin Beijing." All the preparations would have worked so perfectly -- migrant workers dispatched home, construction sites completely finished or else covered with bunting and billboards, no one spitting, everyone standing in lines, the air sparkling blue and clear, the Olympic Lanes avoiding all inconvenience for Olympic crowds -- that visitors would come away not simply with the proper degree of respect for what China has pulled off but with an unrealistic sense of a magic kingdom.

Jim Boyce, an resident of Beijing who is so enthusiastic about his home city that one of his blogs is called Beijing Boyce (the other, about the local wine trade, is called Grape Wall of China) says in a note that he is no longer concerned on this score:
  
I think we can put to rest the worries of long-term expats that visitors wouldn't see the "real Beijing". The air has been fairly bad, the traffic, while lighter, shows that the "etiquette" rules have not been taken to heart by drivers (I saw a few terrified tourists amid traffic last night as cars did U-turns through the cross walk), every fifth taxi driver has a bad attitude, etc. This is the way it should be -- Beijing doing a good job on infrastructure, the people being friendly overall, and a few warts (traffic, air) for all to see.
The point is actually an important one: giving an impression of Beijing and China that is on-the -whole positive, with more goods than bads (while having some of both), is more valuable in the long run than the perfect Potemkin effect. Though I imagine the organizers were hoping/ planning for perfection.

It's so crowded, nobody goes there any more
Both the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal have good stories today pointing out that crowds are disappointingly thin at the main Olympic Green areas -- disappointing for the advertisers, that is, who have paid tens of millions to put up expensive displays.

Anyone in or around Beijing can diagnose the problem here, which the stories also point out: You can't get into the place. Even to board the special Olympic subway line to the venues you need to have an admissions ticket to one of that day's events. This is entirely apart from the pre-Olympic crackdown on issuing visas for potential Olympic travelers, much discussed by hoteliers. I would have liked to see these pavilions -- if I had been able to get a ticket to swimming, tennis, or some other event at the main site. If and when I do get tickets, maybe I will enjoying strolling without the bother of fighting crowds!

Bonus point, speaking of perfection: The main, official Beijing Olympics site, English version here, is very, very good. Easy to navigate; fast; accurate; updated practically in real time. This master-schedule page lets you see exactly who is doing what, and has done what, in any sport. Tabs at the top let you look up any athlete from any country instantly. Nicely done.

 

Two very eloquent articles about the people behind China's gold-medal run

This wonderful article by Rebecca Blumenstein in the Wall Street Journal, about Chen Yanqing, a female Chinese weightlifter who is now a repeat Olympic gold medalist and part of the dominant Chinese weight squad I've been following on TV. The article was published a few days ago, so check it out soon in case it is one of the WSJ articles that times-out in a week and goes off the public site. A sample, from the lead:

As a child, Chen Yanqing was the fastest girl in this farming village. She often outran the boys. One day at a sporting match, a coach noticed her throwing skills and took out a tape measure. She was 11 years old, and the muscles in her arms and legs were extraordinary.

So was the proposition her parents received: Release their daughter to the state, and she could go away to sports school and improve her future, with possible financial benefits for the entire family.

"It was rock hearted of us, but we had no choice," says her father, a farmer named Chen Zufu. "If we didn't send her away to sports school, she would have ended up a farmer."

Later in the story, Blumenstein quotes the father as saying, "A rich person would never let his child do this." Worth bearing in mind whenever you hear about the "natural" collective-mindedness of today's Chinese.

Also, this one, by Adrian Wojnarowski on Yahoo Sports, about the burden Yao Ming is carrying for his country, even though it's not likely to lead to a medal of any sort. (Thanks to Rick Gunnell for the tip.) Both well worth reading.

Jia you!

My own personal Olympic marathon (NPR dept)

Sure, Michael Phelps may swim practically back-to-back Olympic finals just now and win gold medals in both of them. But I'm pulling an all-nighter for the greater good of publicizing our outstanding magazine!

Will be on NPR's Talk of the Nation live around 2:30pm EDT Wednesday, 2:30am Thurs China time, discussing my article on presidential debates in the hot-off-the-presses September issue of the Atlantic. It may not have as many juicy inside memos as does Josh Green's wonderful story on the Clinton campaign's final days. But it has more words!  And it has great video-clips of debates and debaters, added by Jennie Rothenberg Gritz and other members of the Atlantic web team. (Plus, it has an obscure reference to Marshal Petain.) We all sacrifice when Going for the Gold.

Update: The audio of the interview is here.

PS: If you're going to see only one of the clips, make sure you see the one from the Obama-v-Keyes Senate race in 2004, which is the third video clip on the web version's first page. It gives a sample of the rhetorical phenomenon that is Alan Keyes, along with how easily Obama was able to handle him back then.
    But of course you should see all the clips and read the whole thing....

 


August 12, 2008

Wednesday morning Olympics

A little less cheery this time. (By comparison with this from yesterday.)

1. Weather
The air today looks the way it looks most days. That is, bad. Well, we enjoyed yesterday while it was here.

2. Media Control Dept
Here is a big feature story from yesterday's (state-run, official-voice) China Daily about the adorable little girl who "sang" the patriotic anthem at the opening ceremony.

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_4913.jpg

Today's paper has not a word about the story that is all over the international press: that she was lip-syncing for a recording from another girl, judged not "cute enough" to represent the country at the ceremony.  Fortunately the Chinese blogosphere is all over the story, largely in defense of the off-camera girl. For what it's worth, I also have not seen any followup on the photo-shopped nature of the dramatic "footprints" firework display during the opening ceremony. (If it's been publicized within China, I've missed it.*) This is how it is. Some kinds of news "exist" and are publicly discussed. Others don't and aren't.
*Update/correction: of course the faked-firework story was originally broken by a Chinese publication, Beijing Times, which has received credit from nearly all foreign sources for its scoop. I knew this and regret any slight to BJT. I guess what I meant was follow-up discussion on CCTV, which I haven't been aware of. Thanks to Albert Sun for reminder.)

3. More Media Control
There are a bunch of illustrations I don't have the time or heart for now. For the moment, here's today's official view of how the outside world judges the games in general.

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_4916.jpg


4. On the brighter side, I've become a big fan of low-weight-class weightlifting, which is mainly what's shown in the evenings here. These short, square pocket-Hercules types from Colombia, Korea, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and of course usually-triumphant China are inspiring to watch. Jia you!

5. Update Bonus Item: On the larger-scale question of what's at stake for China-- culturally, politically, and psychologically -- in the Olympics, I highly recommend this new piece in the New York Review of Books, by my friend Orville Schell. It puts the questions of "humiliation" and "face" in a clearer and deeper perspective than I've seen elsewhere.  After you've read it, take another look at today's David Brooks column, in wonderment.
 

David Brooks from Chengdu: my lord

Some of his pensees:

If you show an American an image of a fish tank, the American will usually describe the biggest fish in the tank and what it is doing. If you ask a Chinese person to describe a fish tank, the Chinese will usually describe the context in which the fish swim.

These sorts of experiments have been done over and over again, and the results reveal the same underlying pattern. Americans usually see individuals; Chinese and other Asians see contexts.

This is the kind of thing you can say only if you have not the slightest inkling of how completely different a billion-plus people can be from one another. Beijingers from Shanghainese,  Guangdong entrepreneurs from farmers in Sichuan, Tibetans from Taiwanese, people who remember the Cultural Revolution from those who don't, people who remember the famines of the Great Leap Forward from people who've always had enough. The guy across the street from his brother. His daughter from his wife. People hanging on in big state enterprises from those starting small firms. People who stayed in the villages from those who came to the city for jobs. Christians from Buddhists. Hu Jintao from Jiang Zemin,  Olympic weightlifters from Olympic tennis players, Yao Ming from Liu Xiang, Wen Jiabao from Edison Chen  -- and while we're at it, Filipinos from Koreans,  Japanese from Chinese, Malaysian Chinese from Malaysian Malays. Lee Kuan Yew from Kim Jong Il. People from Jakarta from people in Seoul. Hey, they're all "Asians".

Continue reading "David Brooks from Chengdu: my lord" »

Tuesday Olympic Notes - cont

(Following items 1 - 3  here.)
4. The mysteries of the Great Firewall
     Immediately before the Olympics, there of course was a flurry about whether or not the Chinese government would allow foreign visitors and reporters un-firewalled access to the internet. (As I reported in the Atlantic early this year, the original idea was to quietly un-block all IP addresses in hotels or Olympic areas where foreigners were likely to be, so that they'd say: What's this we hear about the firewall? Works fine for me!)

The Chinese government ultimately agreed to open unblock access for the Olympic visitors. For a while, it looked as if that meant blanket unblocking through much of Beijing. My own apartment access has always been firewalled, which I've worked around quite easily with my VPN. But for a day or two, I seemed not to need it. Now the blocking is back again -- and I'm reminded of what a nuisance that is, since on one of my computers, for odd reasons, the VPN is now no-go.

The real point, of course (as emphasized in my story), is that the very uncertainty of the Firewall's operation tremendously magnifies its effect. You don't know day by day what you can easily see, what you can't, or whether any problems you're having come from your own computer or always-shaky ISP setup.

5. The mysteries of Olympic food.
After the jump, an account from a reader trying to buy food at Olympic venues, whose experience exactly mirrored my wife's and mine at the rowing site on Sunday.

That site is really distant from downtown Beijing, and is a big open-air meadow, but on the way in we went through a very, very thorough security search. After I passed through the metal detector with no beeps, a young man poked my right rear pocket several times and said shenme?, "What's that?" I pulled it out and said, "We call this a 'wallet'. " My wife had brought some peanuts and other little snack-packs, but she had to surrender all edibles at the gate.

After we went through, we found concession stands where prices were very low -- but there was not much to buy! Ah, keeps us fit. Reader's account, and one more point, after the jump.
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Continue reading "Tuesday Olympic Notes - cont" »

Tuesday Olympic Notes - I

1. 北京加油! 空气加油!
It's a nice day in Beijing today! Blue visible in the sky, for the first time in one week. It's warm but not sweltering. It actually feels, dare I say it, good outside. View at 4pm August 12:

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_4911.jpg

The traffic- and factory- shutdown orders, and the weather rockets, and the cold front, and the thunderstorms, and the weather gods, and whoever else helped out, are all now doing the job. Congratulations and thanks to one and all.

2. Good translation!
   Most visitors have already learned the two-syllable foundation of Basic Olympic Chinese: the cheer  jia you! It's written 加油!, and for Americans it would be pronounced more or less "jah yo!" -- yo as Sylvester Stallone would say it in Rocky.

Continue reading "Tuesday Olympic Notes - I" »

My gift to Olympic visitors: great web-based PDF map of Beijing

English-language maps of Beijing are not so plentiful, so comprehensible, or so reliable that the existence of a good one should go unmentioned.  Illustration: when my wife and I inquired at an official Olympic Visitors Center booth on Jianguo Lu about getting to the Shunyi rowing center, we were given a map that showed a subway line going straight to that site. Only imperfection: no such line exists.*

This very detailed map, from MapMatrix, is a 4.6MB PDF file with the following virtues: It is zoom-able, so that as you look at a certain neighborhood the street names appear. It is pan-able, so you can see an overview of the whole city and understand relative locations. And it is search-able, which is a true godsend.

You want to know where Yabao Lu is? You enter that in the search or find box, and it pops up on the map. (In Adobe Acrobat, it seems that the map must be zoomed-in enough to display the text you're searching for. With Apple's Preview, the search seems to work at any zoom level.)

Weller Cartographic offers this and similar maps free, but gently requests a $2 - $5 contribution to underwrite its efforts. That's less than 14 - 35 RMB -- and I've paid much, much more than that for much, much worse Chinese city maps. I've chipped in and hope others will too.
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* For locals: the map actually showed a direct subway line from Sihui station, on Line 1, right up to Shunyi. I threw it away in irritation so can no longer show a picture of it, but that is honest-to-God the info the BOCOG volunteer guides gave us.  Update: I hear that the line in question is part of future Beijing Metro plans -- and that maps are printed up with future lines included, for more informed real-estate planning and so on. Fair enough! But the volunteers at the site reassured us, very cheerily and in both Chinese and English, that that was the right way to get to the Shunyi park the next day -- not ten years from now.
 

August 11, 2008

Non-Olympics, non-China: check out Josh Green's memo haul

In case you have not seen any of the (deserved) zillion other references to this at various Atlantic sites, it is very much worth reading my colleague Joshua Green's new story about what went wrong with Hillary Clinton's campaign, and the trove of memos he collected while reporting the story.

Josh has done an outstanding job on this beat for a long time, starting with his definitive article nearly two years ago about how Hillary Clinton's success in the Senate had prepared her, and perhaps mis-positioned her, for a run for the presidency. Also, as everyone in media-land knows, a year ago GQ commissioned him for a big piece on the Clinton campaign -- which the magazine then killed, by all accounts as part of a deal to get better access to Bill Clinton for a different story. Josh then published this excellent account instead in the Atlantic.

The magnum opus among the memos, based on what I've seen, is this one from Mark Penn, which is sure to be parsed and reflected-upon for months and years.

Related thought that comes to my mind while reading through these documents: I make my living writing things down, but even I have reached the point where I am not willing to put any sentiment whatsoever into reproducible form -- in an email that could be forwarded, in a document that could be cut-and-pasted -- without thinking about how it would look if it got into unintended hands.

That is, the perfection of the technology for spreading and sharing written material has made writing weirdly less useful for conveying private thought. It's risky as a way to share thoughts about running a political campaign; it's reckless as a way to say anything about any other person you might not want him or her to hear. The evolution of technology may return us to the era when the no-tech face-to-face meeting, or the hard-to-copy handwritten note, is the most secure means of communication. And when written statements, even in the "privacy" of email, are necessarily blanded-down by pre-knowledge that they could turn up somewhere unexpected months or years or decades later.
 

Fun with mistranslation, cont.

This follows the earlier "Chinglish" discussion here and here.

1) The previous posts explored the puzzle of why Chinese organizations so cavalierly put English words on banners, menus, placards, annual reports, etc, without the slightest effort to find out whether the translations make sense. 

Many people have written in to point out that it's not just a one-way process. The main counter-illustration comes from the Westerners, often athletes, who adorn themselves with Chinese-character tattoos that are often meaningless, garbled, backwards and upside down, or unintentionally hilarious. The site Hanzi Smatter is devoted exclusively to such cases.

Possible mitigating factor: the Chinese-character tattoos are generally used the way English is often used on Japanese T-shirts or backpacks. That is, as pure art and decoration, with no intention whatsoever of conveying meaning to native speakers. That's different from the Chinese case, where the worst errors come in translations made explicitly for foreigners to read. For example....

2) On the bus yesterday to the Olympic Rowing Site at Shunyi, far outside Beijing. Neither the driver nor the conductor on the bus spoke any English -- fair enough, this is China.  The scrolling sign at the front of the bus showed the destination in Chinese characters, which was fine for my purposes, and then in this English "translation":
 




That's just part of a scrolling transliteration about twice as long as could fit on the screen at one time. It's a phonetic (pinyin) rendering of the original Chinese characters, linked end to end into one Germanic-style foot-long word. (The parts we're seeing are equivalent to "..lympic on-water pa...")  An actual translation, meant to be read by foreigners, would simply have said "Shunyi Olympic Rowing Center."  Or, "Rowing and Canoeing Center," etc.

Again, no complaint about signs within China being rendered in Chinese. That's part of the fun and satisfaction of living here. But I could tell that a number of the Brit, New Zealand, Aussie, Italian, German, and other Olympic visitors on the bus with us had no idea where it was going, and no one to ask... except us, which is really scraping the barrel. (Plus an English-speaking Chinese woman who was also aboard.)


Hmmm, maybe this explains some of my visa problems?

From the Fool's Mountain blog, about the opening ceremony:

President George W. Bush was there with his family in suit and tie, despite strong advice against it from John MacCaine, Nancy Pelosi, Mia Fallows, and probably his own conscience....
_____


Explaining the joke #1: Mia F is a big activist for declaring the Beijing Olympics the "Genocide Olympics" because of China's role in Darfur.

Explaining #2: Close study will reveal that her last name is in fact subtly different from mine....

Explaining #3: In contrast to Mia Farrow, I think that Bush did the right thing in attending the ceremonies and some events -- but also speaking up for values of liberty and religious tolerance.

Explaining #4: Actually my visa is just fine! Still, it made me think.....

Bonus explanation #5, pointed out by several readers: Pelosi told him that in the heat he should stick to a nice blue sports shirt. ("...in suit and tie, despite strong advice against it..")
  

 

 

August 10, 2008

Maybe old news, but news to me (CG trickery in opening ceremony?)

I haven't seen this in the U.S. press yet, but many non-American outlets are circulating a report that one of the dazzling effects in Friday night's Olympic opening ceremony was faked. This was the dramatic series of timed firework explosions that ran the entire length of Beijing's "Imperial Axis,"* from Tiananmen Square in the south up to the Olympic Green. (For instance, this report on the 08:08:08 blog.) 

Every part of the ceremony had its symbolism, and this one obviously underscored the lineage from old imperial China to the renascent China that was holding the games. The perfectly-sequenced explosions began near the area of Mao's mausoleum, in Tiananmen; directly north through the emperors' Forbidden City itself; then on steadily toward the Bird's Nest stadium where today's Chinese leaders and attendant foreign dignitaries were sitting.

But it turns out -- apparently -- that the event producers were worried enough about visibility and other practical concerns that they produced computer-graphic simulations of how the timed explosions should look, and then spliced that info into what was shown on the big screen inside the Bird's Nest and to billions of viewers world wide. According to one account:

Gao Xiaolong, head of the visual effects team for the ceremony, said it had taken almost a year to create the 55-second sequence. Meticulous efforts were made to ensure the sequence was as unnoticeable as possible: they sought advice from the Beijing meteorological office as to how to recreate the hazy effects of Beijing's smog at night, and inserted a slight camera shake effect to simulate the idea that it was filmed from a helicopter.

This is not a big deal, and there was enough genuine dazzle in the ceremony to satisfy anyone. But interesting-if-true.

UPDATE: Some US viewers have written to say that NBC made an indirect allusion to the artifice of this display. Eg, "You're looking at a cinematic device, it's actually almost animation." OK. But still interesting I think.
________

* An under-appreciated, must-see site in Beijing is the Urban Planning Museum, near the old Beijing railroad station not far south of Tiananmen Square. Like its better-appreciated, must-see counterpart in Shanghai, it has a vast scale model of the city showing every single building, road, alley, etc. Among the city features it reveals is the continuity between the old imperial layout and the new Olympic structures.
   

Your Olympic weather station

Sunday morning, Beijing looked truly horrible -- here, courtesy of Isaac Kardon, is a screenshot of the CCTV Olympic commentators -- but this time the cause actually was "weather," that unmistakable pre-thunderstorm heaviness.
 


Around 5pm, the lightning bolts and the drenching rains began. This was a short-term inconvenience for Olympic operations, to put it mildly. (My wife and I were 30 miles out of town at the rowing site, where the last stages of the competition was postponed and then cancelled. More later.) But it could be a long-term blessing. Now, on Monday morning, the skies still have a gray overcast, but underneath the air looks washed and clear(er) in a way it usually doesn't. This is the same pattern -- cold front, torrential rain, successive clear days -- that brought blue skies ten days ago. So it's the first cooperative step by the weather gods since the games began.

Update: 1pm city view not so washed-and-clear any more. Still, the passage of a cold front has got to do something to push out the previous pool of stagnant air.

 

"Chauvinism" and Olympic TV

Every four years some people moan and hand-wring about American TV's excessive focus on American athletes and the Olympic events where Americans are likely to win medals.

These people need to get out more.

Or at least they need to spend a little time watching CCTV in China. Today's early morning and evening Olympic coverage -- was gone in the interim, at a real Olympic venue about which more later -- focused heavily on events like Women's Air Pistol (Gold medal: China), Men's Air Pistol (Gold medal: China), Women's 48kg Weightlifting (Gold medal: China), Men's 56kg Weightlifting (Gold medal: China), and... you get the idea.

This applied even to coverage of the Sunday morning's swimming finals, Saturday night in the US. This is not a strong category for China, but after each race the replays and interview were with whatever Chinese swimmer had made it into the finals. When that swimmer did well, as with the silver medalist in the 400m men's freestyle, there was a happy-seeming interview. In the other cases, including when swimmers dragged in dead last, there would be a stiff-upper-lip interview with the athlete and melancholy -- I will say mawkish -- shots of the coach or parents getting teary-eyed in the stands.

This is normal! I switched just now to Korean TV, where I saw the Korean team playing soccer. Then NHK, the Japanese network, with a badminton doubles match involving a Japanese team.

The Olympic Games are for "the youth of the world," but they're organized and scored by countries. It's no surprise that countries treat them as vehicles of national pride, and assume that their people will be most interested in their own athletes. So anybody who was saving up to write an angry letter, blog post, or op-ed about NBC's chauvinistic coverage: don't bother! They're actually more above-the-fray than most. Also, their coverage is not shown anywhere except America -- I know, it's because I can't get it that I'm watching Women's Air Pistol -- so can't ruffle feathers elsewhere.

Now, I have to get back to listening to CCTV announcers yell piaoliang! -- "beautiful!" -- whenever Yao Ming sinks a three-pointed in the US-China basketball game now turning into a runaway. (And in fairness, they've said piaoliang! after some shots by LeBron and Kobe too.)

Nerdy nerds only: Version 1.0 of Chandler officially released

For more than a decade I've followed the genealogy of the personal-info manager now known as "Chandler."  A little while ago I got a message saying that it had (finally!!!) been released.

Background:
  • Some of the earliest Paleolithic rumblings here, in the second half of an Atlantic article written in early 1996. The first half of the article describes the wacky new concept behind a approach to software called "Java," and gives quotes on that subject from a promising engineer at Sun named Eric Schmidt.

  • Another installment here, from eleven years ago, which gave the tragic history of Lotus's too-innovative Agenda program -- and the still-live ambitions of its sponsor, Mitch Kapor, to create the info-management program of everyone's dreams.

  • Two years ago, this update on how Kapor was faring now that he had named this dream program "Chandler" and moved its development to the Open Source Application Foundation, which he initially funded. And late last year, this interim report on how an early version of Chandler looked and worked. And let's not forget Scott Rosenberg's very good book about the whole Chandler project, Dreaming in Code.
 Now version 1.0 is ready for release. I am downloading it, in Windows version on one machine and Mac on the others, as I type. Linux is available too, and all are free.

Continue reading "Nerdy nerds only: Version 1.0 of Chandler officially released" »

August 9, 2008

Got Olympic Lane?

A little while ago a visiting VIP remarked that traveling around Beijing had been surprisingly quick and easy, despite all the warnings he'd heard.

"By chance, were you in an official Olympic car?" my wife asked innocently....  As it happens, he was!

Jianguo Lu, looking west toward 3rd Ring Road intersection, 2pm August 9. (Lo-rez camera phone shot.) Left-hand lane: Olympic Lane.  Other lanes: everyone else.

IMG00024.jpg

Of course it's true that traffic controls have removed a lot of normal congestion, and sometimes the Ring Roads look positively wide-and-open. But sometimes the congestion has just been displaced.

August 8, 2008

One hour into the Olympic opening ceremony.... (updated)

... which I get to watch live, on CCTV, rather than 11 hours from now in the US on NBC.

My attitude toward Opening and Closing ceremonies is generally like my attitude toward football halftime shows: Time to go get a beer. And after about 35 minutes, that is what this ceremony has degenerated into. (There is a chance it might pick up soon, because the sappy pop-star singing looks as if it may be winding up, and maybe we'll get the torch-lighting and the Parade Of Teams.)

But the first 35 minutes are definitely worth watching; indeed, I can imagine PhD theses being written about the impressive technology and often head-scratching symbolism on display there. Some themes are obvious: the Mass of Happy Minority Peoples (Tibetans, Uighurs, et al) carrying in the Chinese flag.  The Fireworks in Sequence up the old N-S imperial axis of Beijing, from Tiananmen Square and the Forbidden City to the Bird's Nest Stadium. Some seem ill-advised, like the 'Triumph of the Will' Memorial Trooping of Goose-Stepping Soldiers to carry the national flag. And much much more.

Definitely tune in, until you see the segment about the history of tea and the parade of Peking Opera stars. Then safely tune out until about an hour-ten after the start, when the Parade of Teams begins -- as it is doing at just this instant, as I sign off.

Update: Four hours into the opening ceremony, it is way too long. But it's worth tuning in, starting about time 3:45 from the beginning, to see the wrapup and torch lighting. Parade of Countries takes at least two hours on its own. (Sure are a lot of countries! Cook Islands??? Sure are a lot of non-athletic looking people marching in with the teams -- coaches and big-shots, I assume, plus for the Canadian team, a foreign celebrity on Chinese TV known as "Da Shan.") GW and Laura Bush appear on screen only once, for about ten seconds, waving at the US team. Putin and Sarkozy shown much more often. Coincidence? Punishment? One of many Mysteries Of The Games.

Bonus update: I now have it on good authority that GW Bush appeared on TV a couple of times I didn't see, mainly looking bored. Sorry to have missed it.
 



Here's one way to avoid incidents in Tiananmen Square

Don't let anybody onto the place! In normal times, views like the ones below would contain the faces, backs, arms, legs, hats, umbrellas, balloons, etc of roughly one zillion people. Today, the day of the opening ceremonies, no one except officials let any closer than the far side of the wide road.





A cop told us that the square would be open again tomorrow. Also, in fairness, anyone who has seen Washington DC get locked down for events involving the Imperial Presidency will find the scene familiar.

Meanwhile, sky looks better than it did this morning, and much better than it did 24 hours ago. Let the Games begin.

IMG_4854.jpg

Nerds only: very impressive new beta of VMware Fusion

Recently I mentioned that I was having a video-corruption problem with a Beta 1 version of VMware's Fusion. (For those late to the story: Fusion let's you run Windows programs on an Intel-equipped Macintosh, right alongside the normal Mac programs. Parallels software does the same thing, but I like Fusion better.)

I'm still having that video problem with the new Beta 2 of Fusion. Perhaps that will make my compliment all the more sincere when I say that the new release is a truly phenomenal piece of engineering. I hope VMware fixes the bug that is annoying me -- and that, according to VMware, is in fact a flaw in Apple's own video drivers for the MacBook Air. But even with the bug, which is work-aroundable since it shows up only in Fusion's "unity" view, I highly recommend this program.

The earlier incarnations of Fusion already went far toward making the Mac a useful platform for those who don't want to relearn all their computing habits or cut themselves off cold-turkey from the vast world of Windows-only software. I have been using it for several months, on a MacMini and a MacBook Air, to run my workhorse Office2007 programs (Outlook, Word, Excel) plus a number of Windows-based favorites, like Zoot and BrainStorm.

The new Beta 2 release includes, among many other things, three big features that matter to me:

keyboard mapping
, so you can make a Mac produce keystrokes that its own (deficient, IMHO) keyboard lacks. For instance, the equivalents to Ctl-Home and Ctl-End in Word, to get to the beginning or end of a document, on Mac portable keyboards that don't have those keys -- or PrintScreen, or Insert, or a slew of others. You can assign any command that's missing from a Mac keyboard, or that your fingers are used to producing in a way the Mac doesn't normally allow, to keys it does have;

Continue reading "Nerds only: very impressive new beta of VMware Fusion" »

August 7, 2008

For the record: interview with Australian radio

I am a fan of the Breakfast show on Australia's ABC Radio National, with regular host Fran Kelly. For US listeners, it's more or less comparable to NPR's Morning Edition, with adjustments for Aussie informality and sass.

I talked with Fran Kelly two days ago about the Olympic buildup and China's environmental efforts in general. Links here, fwiw.

The big day is here!

And I simply do not have the heart to show what it looks like today -- August 8, the magical 08/08/08 chosen for its positive auspices for the Olympics. I'll just say, it looks very much like this view from six weeks ago. This is a disaster.

About six months ago, I interviewed the (impressive) Chinese scientists responsible for monitoring Beijing's air quality and later reported their views in the Atlantic:

The last PowerPoint slide in a presentation that one of the scientists showed me read, "We are confident that the air quality goals for Olympics 2008 will be met in Beijing." When I asked, "Really?" all eyes turned toward the senior CAS official in the room, a British-trained scientist. "I personally am sure the goals will be met," he said. Even if the winds are wrong? "Ninety-nine percent."

So either we're in the one-percent case, or they were fooling themselves. Or required to say what they did. It doesn't matter.

I suppose there's also a one-percent possibility that the international embarrassment will be a Chernobyl-type stimulus toward truly radical environmental action in China and around the world. But maybe that's fooling myself too.

Here we go.


I don't get a chance to say this very often, so.... (compliment to GWBush)

... good speech by America's 43rd president in Thailand, before his arrival just now in China. Official text, opening jocularities and all, is here on WhiteHouse.gov.

What made it good was that he emphasized the big picture -- that China, the U.S., and the world will be much better off if China and the US can cooperate than if they fight -- while also being clear about the values the U.S. should stand up for.  After the jump, the passage we hard-boiled journalist types call the "nut graf," summarizing his point. 

GW Bush gives a speech that displays some familiarity with specifics and some subtlety about larger themes. Plus a mixture of idealism and practicality! I will stop here and offer no speculation about what might have been in other areas of policy. But I will suggest that members of the IOC might read the speech as a guide on being both cooperative and principled.
________

Continue reading "I don't get a chance to say this very often, so.... (compliment to GWBush)" »

About those U.S. cyclists with gas masks

I don't mean to judge them as people. They did the right thing in apologizing. But in wearing protective masks inside the Beijing airport they were acting like jerks.

CPS.NES88.050808171602.photo02.photo.jpg
Photo by AFP

I grant: these are athletes at the peak of their conditioning. But they can't endure the air inside a building? While they're walking, rather than running or breathing hard? And for the few minutes it would take to get past all the photographers and into the privacy of their buses or cars?

Yeah, no kidding, the air in Beijing is worth complaining about. I've done so plenty, starting with an article I wrote more than two years ago, shortly after I arrived:

Many aspects of the new, improved China will be up for the world's inspection during the Olympic Games. But there is one little catch: the air. Unless something radical changes, I do not understand how athletic events can take place in air as dirty as Beijing's....

Everyone assumes that when the time comes for the Games, the authorities will do whatever they have to--closing factories, banning private traffic--to bring pollution down to an endurable level.... Still. If the marathon runners, or even the archers, can finish their events without clutching their chests and keeling over, the Chinese authorities will have accomplished something special.

But complaints should come in the context of realizing that Chinese officials, companies, and citizens actually have done quite a lot to try to cope with the problem (details here) -- and that it's sad in many ways, rather than contemptible, that the first view the world's TV audience will have of spiffed-up Beijing will be of the opaque gray-brown skies. Unless, of course, there's a big cleansing wind out of Mongolia right now.

It's embarrassing enough for the Chinese hosts that the air looks so bad. It's tasteless, prissy, and showboating for visitors to rub it in this way. (Again, I'm talking about wearing the masks inside, in front of cameras, while standing around -- not sensible precautions for training.) 

Why should I rub it in, now that the cyclists have done themselves and their country credit by apologizing? Just to set down an early marker that there is such a thing as dignified and considerate behavior -- even for athletes on the cusp of the competition of their lives, and even when coming to a country where there are ample legitimate grounds for complaint.




August 6, 2008

End of an era: last pre-Olympic snapshot (updated)

Opening ceremonies tomorrow, August 8. This is the view as of 10am, August 7, from our same old window in the Guomao area of Beijing. I suspect that a lot of this actually is "mist," very high humidity, etc. That is, it can't be that much more polluted than it was 36 hours ago, when things looked much better, as shown here. Mainly completing the chronicle, for the record.

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_4847.jpg


Here is the way the same area looked on a nice day about six months ago. I understand that if I'd been here this previous weekend, I could have seen even clearer views.

http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_4315.jpg

Three more views of pretty blue-sky Beijing days in the same general neighborhood are: from early this year here and from late last fall here and here. Ongoing air coverage available on the Asia Society's interactive site, here. Now I will give the window-camera a rest.

UPDATE: For those interested in the actual science of the Beijing air-quality situation, I also highly recommend the ongoing charts and explanations on Dr. Kenneth Rahn's site, from the University of Rhode Island.

This one-page Power Point slide, updated daily, shows the trend in pollution readings in the weeks leading up to the Olympics. (Warning: it is legible only if viewed in Internet Explorer, not FIrefox or Safari. Don't even bother without IE.)

This longer presentation  explains the readings, including why Beijing's situation is so tough and how much difference the emergency shutdown order for cars and factories actually made. Its trend lines also clarify this important point: while hazy skies don't necessarily mean polluted air, as Chinese officials ceaselessly point out (it could be fog, it could be mist), in harsh reality the days when you can't see very well are also the days with the most dangerous air. (Thanks to Robert Kawaratani.)
 
 

Uncle! Or let's make that, 叔叔!

In response to widespread popular demand, I will admit: screwed-up translations of Chinese into English can be very funny!  The G-rated classic version is this one:



(That picture has been widely circulated; I found it here.) The R- and X- rated versions can be found in considerable detail here -- scroll all the way down and you'll see what I mean.

So what did I mean, in recently cutting some slack to the geniuses who produced the "Wet Turban Needless Wash" that I received on a recent Air China flight? Or the zillion other instances of laughable mis-translations into English I come across all the time in China. ("Please shit here" over a toilet -- not sure if it's a typo, or an instruction.) Only this:

When you're a native speaker of what has become the dominant international language,  there's something undeniably Colonel Blimp-ish in making fun of the locals for their flawed command of your own mother tongue. Especially when this is happening in their own country, and all the more so when the people doing the chuckling can't do as well in Chinese as the Chinese are trying to do in English. In my observation, the less effort an outsider has put into coping with Chinese language, the more likely he or she is to chortle at the embarrassing "Chinglish" signs. 

So just as a personal matter, laughing at someone else's mistakes in your (outside, Western, superpower) native language is not that charming a thing to do. 

On the other hand, it truly is bizarre that so many organizations in China are willing to chisel English translations into stone, paint them on signs, print them on business cards, and expose them permanently to the world without making any effort to check whether they are right.  I can't resist this example: when we lived in Shanghai, a local museum had a very evocative and politically daring exhibit about villages that were being drowned by the Three Gorges Dam. And on huge banners outside, in letters six feet high, it said: "Three Georges Exhibit." If they had shown the banners to anyone who actually spoke English....

Why does this happen? I wish I knew. In micro terms, it must come from rote reliance on dictionaries or translation software. For instance, the title of this post: the dictionary will tell us that  叔叔, shu shu, means an uncle. But of course it does not mean what "Uncle!" means in U.S. slang -- as any Chinese speaker would point out if you asked him to check out the title.  (For those who don't know, "Uncle!" means, "I give up! You win!")  In the larger sense, why so many people would so carelessly waste money and -- the real mystery, considering Chinese sensitivities -- so brazenly expose themselves to ridicule is a puzzle. Learning a language means being willing to make mistakes. That's different from presenting formal, error-filled material for outsiders to read.

After the jump, a sample (long) bit of testimony from someone who thinks it's time for a harder line on mistranslations -- and more laughing too.  To which I can only say, 叔叔!
___________________  

Continue reading "Uncle! Or let's make that, 叔叔!" »

Good to know (Olympic air dept).

This is certainly a relief! Jacques Rogge et al set our minds at ease.
 
 http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_4836.jpg

Full text of the story (from the state-controlled English-language official outlet) is here. It begins:

Beijing's air does not pose any health risk for athletes, officials and other visitors, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) said Tuesday.

Dispelling all fears over overcast and hazy skies in the city, the IOC said data on Beijing's air quality is being assessed on an hourly basis.

Haze does not mean poor quality air, a senior Beijing environmental official said a week ago.


FWIW, view at noon today in downtown Beijing. No scientific or medical judgment implied here -- it could just be a kind of fog. Simply chronicling how it looks with two days to go. (PS: for anyone who doesn't know about it already, this phenomenal site, produced by the Asia Society, gives a searchable day-by-day view of what Beijing's skies have looked like over the last year. Informative and excellently done.)

 http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_4838.jpg

August 5, 2008

Innocents abroad

Americans' faith that they can do anything, that they won't be bogged down by the frustrations that stymie lesser peoples, is one of their (our) greatest attributes. And one of the most dangerous.

The French got bogged down in Vietnam? No problem, we'll do it right. The Brits in Iraq? The Soviets (and Brits) in Afghanistan? Step aside, and we'll show you how it's done.

Thus this note in today's NYT from a writer who is determined to keep up her running discipline while in Beijing for the Olympics:

Yes, I'm going. I'll be part of the New York Times reporting team. And yes, I intend to run when I'm in China. I'll even have a training schedule and will e-mail my results to [her coach] and talk to him via Skype.

One running partner, if our plans work out, will be Mary Wittenberg, president of New York Road Runners. She hopes to run for an hour at least every other day, if not more often.

"I'm going in there optimistic," she said. "How bad can it be?"

Hooo boy. ("How bad can it be?," Donald Rumsfeld asked as he approved the stripped-down troop plans for Iraq. "How bad can it be?" asked Robert S. McNamara...)

Before coming here two years ago, I had been a pretty serious runner for many decades in the past. Never broke three hours in the Boston or Marine Corps marathons, but came close. (3:02, but who's counting.) Once insanely took part in a 24-hour relay marathon, in which teams of ten people took turns running a mile each on a track, around the clock -- and our goal was to average under 5:15 per mile over the whole period, though that was long ago.

Yet I have not found it sensible to run outside, even one time, in Shanghai or Beijing. Of course there were days when I could have done so. But on average??? That's what the indoor gym is for, with its illusion of filtered air.

Good luck to the NYT running team, and to the Olympics as a whole. And may America preserve the good parts of its touching "how bad can it be?" creed.
 

Much nicer day today

In contrast to yesterday's heart-sinking blear, today, August 5, three days before the opening ceremonies in Beijing, ended up very nicely!

Jianwai Soho towers, from under the Guomao bridge, Beijing central business district, 6:30pm, August 5 2008:


As always, hoping this is finally a trend...

Coates, Yglesias, (Fallows), and Atlantic Blogs

I am sorry to see the talented and original-minded Matthew Yglesias leave the Atlantic's blog team, and I wish him well at his new site. I am glad to see the talented and original-minded Ta-Nehisi Coates join the Atlantic's blog team.

A word about that team and its makeup. Four of its members, as you can tell by their output, are "real" bloggers, whose work on this site is their main job for the Atlantic. These are: Andrew Sullivan, Megan McArdle, Marc Ambinder, and now Ta-Nehisi Coates. Matthew Yglesias was previously in this category.

Four of us, as you can also usually tell by our output, are in a different situation, with online writing as a side responsibility that is supposed to fit around, and come second to, main jobs writing or editing articles for the print magazine. These are: Ross Douthat, Clive Crook, Jeffrey Goldberg, and me.

As is evident in many ways, I am not producing an actual blog. So perhaps this is a moment for a one-time-only explanation of what I think I am doing, which appears after the jump.

Continue reading "Coates, Yglesias, (Fallows), and Atlantic Blogs" »

August 4, 2008

I don't think "funny" translations are all that funny...

... my theory being, I am allowed to make fun of someone's translation of Chinese into English only when I'm ready to have a Chinese person make fun of my translation of English into Chinese. And I will never be ready to do that.

On the other hand: If I were going to translate something into Chinese, for a wide audience of Chinese people to read, I might possibly consider having a native Chinese speaker take a look at it before I gave the final OK. Which is why I continue to marvel at specimens like this: the always-welcome "moist towelette" from yesterday's Air China flight from Chengdu to Beijing (click for larger view if the point is not clear):
 http://i142.photobucket.com/albums/r96/jfallows/IMG_4800.jpg
This was not the strangest aspect of the flight, however. As part of a general tightening up of security in China, the screening line in the Chengdu airport required me to do two things I haven't done on any of my 40 or 50 previous domestic flights in the country: remove my belt, and take off my shoes.

It was boiling hot in Chengdu, and I was wearing shorts and moccasin-type shoes with no socks. So when I took the shoes off, I was just there in bare feet. Nonetheless, like the other passengers who had socks on when they removed their shoes, I had to hold my feet up while a young security officer waved a metal-detecting rod around the top, bottom, and sides of them. "Those are my feet," I helpfully pointed out to her. "For the Olympics!" ("为奥运会!") she said, with what looked like a smile.

Unfortunate NYT lapse in Beijing

Adam Minter, of the ShanghaiScrap blog (and an Atlantic author), has noticed a heartbreaking and consequential bit of sloppiness in a NYT report today out of Beijing. The Times quoted a Beijing resident on what is, given the attack on police in the largely-Islamic Xinjiang region of China, perhaps the most sensitive topic of the moment: the Chinese government's efforts to quash what it considers mounting terrorist potential from its Muslim Uighur minority. The Times understandably grants its source anonymity on this topic, given the potential risks to him if he were identified -- and then carelessly identifies him! Minter quotes the crucial passage from this Times story today:

The owner of the Xinjiang Kashgar Restaurant near the main Olympic venue said he shut down Tuesday [of last week] after repeated visits from officials who cited health concerns. He said several other Muslim restaurants nearby had received similar visits. The owner, a Uighur, spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear that he would be further harassed by the authorities. 
The passage is still in the story at the NYT's site as of two minutes ago -- although once the info has been published at all, I guess whether it stays up is moot.

I know that very restaurant and went past it today on my trip out to the Olympic venue. Poor guy. This can't have been intentional, but the results are the same as if it were. And no one within the NYT system looked at these two sentences and said, Wait a minute...  ?
 

Out at the Olympic site

A trip today for a preliminary press event. Good news and bad news.

Good news: transportation! Only 20 minutes via the new subway Line 10 from Guomao station, in the central business district, to Beitucheng station, just south of the main Olympic areas. Line 10 train was populated but not overcrowded. Security check on way into the subway reasonable-seeming rather than too intrusive. (Handbags and briefcases go through a screening machine; people themselves don't have to.)

In theory there is a way to connect at Beitucheng from Line 10 to the new Olympic Line 8. But the cops seemed to be steering anyone without a formal Olympic credential (which I don't have) away from Line 8 and out onto the street. No problem: A few minutes' walk away was a depot for various special Olympic bus lines that circle the venues. The bus-route maps I saw were written only in Chinese -- or sometimes transliterated into Roman characters in a way most visitors wouldn't recognize. (For instance, Guojia Tiyuchang, the pinyin version of 国家体育场, rather than the more useful-to-outsiders terms "National Stadium" or "Bird's Nest.") But there were many cheery young English-speaking volunteers willing to help puzzled foreigners.

Bad news: Well, it doesn't appear to have just been "morning mist" today, as I speculated earlier. Below and after the jump, a few pictures from the Olympic site early this afternoon. At this point, 100 hours before the opening ceremony and seven years after the decision to hold the Olympics in Beijing, there is really not anything to "do" about the city's air anymore -- except hope that whatever cleansing wind blew through over the weekend comes again.

 National Stadium -- "Bird's Nest" -- barely visible on the left, National Aquatic Center -- "Water Cube" -- on the right, 1pm on August 4. (Click for larger version.)
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August 3, 2008

Four days to go

Just back to Beijing after seven days in parts of China where the concerns are far more elemental than hosting a successful and "harmonious" Olympic event. (Eg, villages being inundated by new dams -- more another time.) Headed out right away for a kickoff PR event.

In the meantime, hoping that this morning's prospect out the window is in fact just morning fog, as is sometimes the case. Heard from friends in Beijing that over this past weekend, the emergency air-clearing efforts had finally paid off (or a big rain storm and wind played their part) and the skies were gloriously blear-free and blue. Indeed on arrival late last night, we could see the moon! Hope more of the same is ahead --  another report this afternoon..

8 am, August 4, 2008, downtown Beijing:
 
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